There may not be a definitive answer on Tuesday, but we can have a good sense of where the election is headed
Interesting that you included Pinellas County in your article. We lived there almost 20 yrs before relocating to AZ in '05. My daughter, her boyfriend and my granddaughters still live in Pinellas. My daughter was an avid Obama fan in '08 & '12 until her boyfriend convinced her Obama and all Dems are bad, trump is good. They went so far as placing a huge trump flag in their yard this year. UGH! My 2 oldest granddaughters are not trump fans and will be voting for Biden...I'll take some credit for discussing the differences between the candidates with them. :). I've tried to have a conversation with my daughter about her changes in attitude but it doesn't go well. Her boyfriend is disabled and listens to Fox News and follows all the right wing FB pages all day long.
He has her thoroughly convinced trump is the best. Very sad. My daughter is a Hospice nurse and has many friends who have tried to explain to her how bad trump is but it falls on deaf ears. No doubt our family is not the only family in turmoil over the politics.
Thanks Dan for all you do. Always enjoy your posts and come away having learned something. Also enjoyed your books.
Thank you Dan. I am on the verge of hyperventilation most of the time and your measured approach will help greatly.
Excited that Wasserman included my county here in Texas, Collin county. We are a large suburb of Dallas, and we have NEVER been competitive here. Romney won I believe by 30+ points. Our voter turnout is through the roof, and Beto laid the groundwork. Keep an eye on Collin county on election night.
Like Tom Petty said, "the waiting is the hardest part." I hope I don't suffer a coronary before the end of the week. I am so exhausted. Oy.
Thanks Dan! Straightforward approach to viewing the results on Tuesday. Agree with following Dave Wasserman’s analysis of the data. It would be great to win Florida, Georgia or North Carolina early.
Thanks so much, your calm, sensible, experienced voice makes it so much easier to observe the election with a cooler head! Given the time difference we get to watch your results all through the day on Wednesday. So rest assured good friends in the US, your Australia buddies will be breathlessly pouring over the votes with you, this is EVERYONE’s election. And can I ask, can we have a Twitter hashtag for The Message Box that we can all use? It would be nice to connect with you all in real time ( and keep reminding people that early results will change, keep calm people). How about it? Hashtag?
Thank you, my emotions are flying out of control. This is great. Love the county breakdown, love your calming effect about stealing the election. Knowledge Is Power and Data is Queen.
Thanks for your overall analysis. Living and campaigning in one of the 10 counties the NY Times noted as 'one to watch,' I continue to have hope suburban Texas women will flip the state for Biden, and importantly, the TX State House - critical for the upcoming Redistricting year. It's been a long, slow, murky slog since going door to door for Obama in '08, pre-electronic voter data. Hopefully 2020 is FINALLY our year!
Thank you Dan for your levelheaded and sometimes poignant honesty. We need clever, thoughtful, witty guys like you INSIDE government, though!! When will you make yourself the ultimate volunteer? And the Jon’s? And the PSW guy? Especially him! Not just because his name slips my mind. (FML)Yall are the vanguard of new American politics. You can show young people that it’s a service worth the effort.
And yall could debate the pants off anyone.
Honesty, wit, intelligence, experience, personality, humorous self-effacement, I could go on. I’m sure you all have heard it all before. Tell me the reasons why not, I’ll enumerate the reasons why, tenfold
Your analysis is spot on Dan. Reading this at 3.30am your time and everything you told us to look for has come true. I’m staying calm. There is a pathway to victory and we will win. Thank you again
This is so cute of you to think any of us are just *going to bed* tonight
My business partner put together these charts (https://www.linkedin.com/in/beaumartin/). I thought you might be interested. This link is to Dropbox for download: https://lnkd.in/dE522qx
You always say to worry about everything, panic about nothing. Safe to say I've spent the last few nights coming up with a wide variety of doomsday scenarios to get my blood pressure up, but I keep coming back to one thought. Trump has consistently been spreading disinformation about how the election will be rigged and how he may claim victory on Election night if he is ahead so he can later claim that the Democrats have stolen the election if they come back and Biden wins.
If that happens, I'm wondering if that will have an impact on two things. The first being that it will incite violence from Trump supporters who look at Susquehanna and Rassmussen polls that show Trump should win and also coming to the conclusion that the election has been rigged. The second being that as a lame-duck president, Trump will be able to potentially invalidate ballots that have already be counted or act in other terrible ways with the justification that the election was stolen.
Are you concerned at all about these factors, assuming that Biden wins (knock on wood)?
In your article you mention a few counties where the results will be key to determining how the night will go. Where / how is the best place to watch the returns come in at the county level? Most media outlets don't get that specific.
I’m not waiting on a lady....
I’m just waiting on the sum
Total of all votes cast!
Total of all votes cast!
I’m just waiting on the sum...
You mention that the early/mail vote is released all at once in Florida once the polls close. Is that essentially ALL of the early/mail vote, or just a good majority of it?