How Democrats Can Get Past the Shutdown Debacle

The end of the shutdown was a disaster, but we have to put it behind us and move forward.

Yesterday, I vented my anger and frustration at eight Democrats capitulating at the point of maximum leverage. While I agree that Republicans might never have been willing to pass an extension of the Obama tax credits, Democrats caved before we could even test the proposition. We were winning the fight in the court of public opinion and had just won a resounding electoral victory. This was not the time to throw in the towel.

If yesterday’s post was cathartic (for me at least), I’m going to try to make today’s constructive.

When I was at CrookedCon last week, the politicians, activists, and operatives in attendance were still riding high from the election. Only a few days later, everyone is once again in a sour mood. Unfortunately, we can’t undo the damage done by the capitulation. I’m not telling anyone to stop being mad (I’m still mad), but eventually we have to start moving forward. Here’s how Democrats can start that process.

1. The 8 Democrats That Cut the Deal Should Stop Talking

Several of the Democrats who voted to open the government have been on a media tour. They held a press conference on Sunday night and then made the rounds on cable trying to sell the deal.

Stop.

They are doing a terrible job. Trying to sell this as some sort of win is embarrassing. It isn’t. They made a decision — perhaps for good-faith reasons — that they wanted the shutdown to end, but they didn’t get anything of consequence in exchange. They folded their cards. The messengers are bad, and the message is worse.

If they want to explain it to local press back home, more power to them — but Jeanne Shaheen going on Fox & Friends serves no purpose other than inflaming the ongoing fight within the party.

2. Schumer Should Also Stop Talking

For as angry as people are at the eight Democrats who voted for the deal, they are even angrier at Chuck Schumer. The Democratic Leader voted against the deal, but who are we kidding. There are only two options here — and neither is good for Schumer. Either Schumer was tacitly okay with this deal or Schumer was too weak to stop 17% of his caucus from cutting a deal with Republican leadership and the Trump White House. If I had to place a bet, it would be on the former.

Schumer wants to have it both ways — open the government and be seen as opposing opening the government. It’s too cute by half, much like his refusal to endorse Zohran Mamdani or even say whom he voted for.

There was a time when Schumer was one of the best messengers in the party. He was known for his media savvy. Those days are no more. His best role, particularly now, is to be behind the scenes working on legislative strategy and raising money for Senate candidates.

Schumer has become a flashpoint for the party, and being front and center helps no one — and hurts everyone, especially Schumer.

3. Build a Campaign Around the Vote

Let me stipulate up front: I highly doubt the promised vote to extend the Obamacare tax credits will pass, and even if it does, it seems even more unlikely that the House would take it up, let alone pass it.

This is now a messaging campaign. It is an opportunity to make sure that every American knows two things: Republicans raised their premiums and Democrats tried to stop them.

Do not sleep on what a truly politically insane decision Republicans have made. Affordability is the top issue in American politics. Last week’s elections made that crystal clear. And the Republican response to voters being incredibly concerned about the cost of living was to raise people’s health care costs.

And you don’t have to take my word for it. Tony Fabrizio — Donald Trump’s pollster — wrote a memo earlier this summer that detailed the danger for Republicans:

While the 2024 outcome for these districts was even, the generic Republican is down 3 points among all registered voters. Among those most motivated to vote — an early indicator of midterm turnout — the Republican is down 7 points. If the Republican candidate lets the premium tax credit expire, the Republican trails the Democrat by 15 points. There is broad bipartisan support for the tax credits and their extension.

We need people paying attention if and when the Senate votes down the bill — and we need everyone to know that the House wouldn’t even hold a vote to prevent the premium increase. File this under turning chicken shit into chicken salad.

This means Democrats doing the following:

• holding town halls in Republican districts

• Democratic activists rallying in front of Republican offices

• organic and paid campaigns telling the stories of the people whose premiums have skyrocketed — with a special focus on former Trump voters and other Republicans

• elected officials, activists, and other influencers posting some of the premium notices that have gone out

• contrasting the rising premiums for millions of Americans with Trump building himself ballrooms and throwing Gatsby parties for his rich friends

• talking with our friends and family about how Trump jacked up health care costs.

I don’t love the way the shutdown ended, but I do believe Republicans have made a potentially fatal error in service of owning the Libs. Democrats gave them an offramp to avoid this political fate, but they were too dumb to take it.

Next year, no one will remember the shutdown cave — but they will know that their premiums have gone up. It’s our job to make sure they know who raised those premiums.