Don't ever believe those polls and don't even read them. It's a waste of time to focus on them. They are rigged. Look at all the amazing things that are happening with voter registration and early voting. In Michigan alone 81% of 18 year olds have registered to vote this election cycle (per Laura Brill of the Civics Center Substack). Think about the 700 + former defense and national security officials who have endorsed VP Harris for President. Look at the energy of her campaign. She, Tim Walz, Doug Emhoff and Gwen Walz are all over the place, as are her many surrogates. President Obama, Liz Cheney, Bernie Sanders, etc. Senator Raphael Warnock was in PA over the weekend campaigning for VP Harris with Josh Shapiro. There are so many events planned over the next 22 days. She is going on "Charlamagne tha God" Breakfast Club podcast tomorrow morning. This podcast is very popular with Black men. Remember Black men were ordered by President Obama to get off the couch!
The CNN town hall in PA next week. There are busloads of Republicans for Harris, Nikki Haley supporters for Harris, Veterans, Union Members, etc canvassing and phone banking. "Do Something!" Don't agonize over the stupid polls
Why I am very optimistic about Nov... It's not the polls... It's the 2020 numbers. Here's my back of the envelope forecast: The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes! So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together? Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly.. Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President. This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition. What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters. This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020. And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away. He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters. That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops. I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more deranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020. It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020. We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game. With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states. And what about those scary polls? The polls have become particularly unstable but are are trending in Harris direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters can say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? Actually because political polls, no matter how unbiased they try to be, partisan political tools that journalists use to tell election stories. We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
Big story of 2022 is that educated, active voters are moving in a Democratic direction. Mid terms are always lower turnout, and at this point lower turnout benefits Dems, so to make up for the ignoramuses that will turn out for Trump this year we will needs lots of new, young voters to put Kamala over the top. Fortunately Kamala is a great candidate who is inspiring to young people as well as regular Democratic voters.
Thank you for being the absolute master of saying things that are both accurate and uplifting at the same time. In the current environment, that is an almost impossible balancing act to pull off, and yet you do it time after time.
With three weeks to go, the polls don't matter anymore. The election is within our margin of effort, so we'll do the same work regardless of whatever the polls say. Some thoughts:
1. People are actually voting now, and that data is much more valuable to us than a poll.
2. Polls are based on models of the electorate. Most of the polls assume the electorate will look like 2020 plus some extra weighting for Trump voters because of the polling misses in 2020. At best that's an educated guess, and there are reasonable arguments that the electorate will look different after Dobbs and with Harris now in the race.
3. Republican aligned pollsters are dumping tons of low quality polls in order to skew the average. They did the same thing in 2022.
4. None of the polls account for our grassroots efforts, so let's go win this thing!
100% agreed that the early voting data is much more useful for us if we want to have some idea where things are going.
And if you're in a problem where the solution is to do an action (vote), then anything that leads you to not do the solution-action is counterproductive. What would a poll tell someone who is going to vote? Nothing useful. Will you vote Trump if he's ahead in the polls? Will you stay home because Harris is 5 points up? That's ridiculous. We all vote, we all help each other, and we win.
Not sure how much of this is hopium and how much of it is a real hunch, but I believe it's quite likely that pollsters trying to correct for 2020 have overcorrected and are inflating his support.
I don't have any evidence to support it but it just feels right. Kind of MAGA of me, lol.
I live and work part time in Northern Lower Michigan and work at a growing major health care corporation that serves a wide swath of traditionally Republican Michiganders. There is a surprisingly good and dedicated ground game of locals that include many converts to Harris/Walz. If this view in this slice of population is represented in Rural and Exurban groups in WI and PA (which I suspect it is) then there's a lot of cautious optimism to bear.
I have been waiting for Message Box like a fix. I can feel my anxiety rising and I know it doesn’t help to listen too much to the chatter. You have calmed me down a bit. Any chance you would like to write a Message a box every morning? Like those daily affirmations? Just kidding. Sorta.
Hi Phyllis, I hope you’re also listening to POD Save America and reading Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood Carry Water substack to help with the jitters. These are helping me through the anxiety and keeping me motivated to keep working.
Thanks for this reality check, and panic quash. I'm in Michigan and have been phone banking in Michigan and I will reiterate that volunteering helps the campaign and helps us, too! You get to "do something" as Michelle Obama pleaded, and "when we fight we win" isn't just a rallying cry, it's fact-based strategy.
I don’t pay attention to the polls. Before I retired, one of my groups built and maintained credit scoring models (for a lot of reasons much more accurate than political public opinion polls). Those statisticians , who came from credit bureaus and public polling orgs, told me once you have a race this close polls are useless—the difference is finer than polls are capable of differentiating. It’s like doing eye surgery with a pocket knife instead of a laser. And there are no laser-like polls.
I suppose the campaigns use their internal polls to identify segments of the electorate to focus on, or geographic areas. But for us, they’re merely a feature of the media, there for the same reason that newspapers used to have comic strips and crossword puzzles. Entertainment.
My hope, based on polling, is that Trump’s recent degraded lunacy has disheartened his least strong adherents. My next door neighbors, as we were all doing Milton cleanup yesterday, told me they could no longer vote for Trump (but could not vote for a Dem). The issues that finally got them were the Haitian immigrant lies and the FEMA lies.
I also wonder how many of these people that say they won't vote for Trump, will secretly vote for Harris. I recently read an article about a TX Republican who said that very thing. They can't stomach admitting to voting for a Dem, but know that this is the best choice for their country and the future of their party.
You know he will never stop. And it aggravates me more than I can express that blocking him doesn't actually, you know, prevent me from seeing his posts. Huge fail in the Substack architecture.
You are a simpleton. Credit scores correlating to voter IDs? Never implied that and can’t imagine what value that would have. You jumped to a simpleton’s conclusion.
Credit scoring is used to automate credit decisions. In the old days, humans did this, and as we carefully studied and discovered, humans bring their attitudes, beliefs and prejudices into a decision. Is that a female name? Hispanic? Typically black (to the decider?). Too old? Too young? Building a credit model, using statistical science, excludes factors that are truly meaningless, unfair, and prejudicial. So a better and more predictive outcome and fairer to the applicant.
—wait is this too complicated? Will you again misunderstand?
Didn’t sell the data as selling data from a bank is breaking federal law. And unethical even if it weren’t. And no one would buy a proprietary model.
So there’s how you failed to grasp. Because you seem very simple and fail to understand complicated issues. Maybe find a substack about crayolas or one about comic books.
And one more thing to add about Politico, Axios, NY Times, heck even PSA. Trump IS the news. Without him, this entire multi-million dollar ecosystem of rebellion and political-tainment is mostly over. There will always be MAGA but let's face it, there will never be another Trump. And with a 24 hour news cycle, podcast universe, and social media army almost entirely devoted to informed Democrats, the only way to keep us engaged is to worry the fuck out of us. I mean, it's literally 6am and I am already engaging with my favorite newsletter and PSA host before I move on to The NY Times. If they write it, we will come…..
Great points. I am largely a defender of reliable journalism because we do want journalists trained in ethics and processes. But I've been extremely disappointed with the main outlets - beyond my usual discontent. We need a free press; we need reliable news -- social media and influencers are terrible sources of news, and we need to keep calling those out as bad. But standard journalistic outlets have been failing us in many ways (we have been failing ourselves too by constantly Charlie Browning it and falling for the clickbait), and I'm also not relying as much on NYT and WaPo.
The press has let us down over and over again. Having said that, the interview with David Plouffe helps bring balance to my view of the polls. My confidence in the data is weaker now more than ever because of the closeness of the race. But--Trump is so disqualified from being President again. Anyone who is reasonable has to wonder why this race is close at all? Is there a common sense universe out there?
Agreed. I have been more than annoyed about The NY Times coverage of literally everything. I am planning on cancelling my subscription after the election. The imbalance of coverage, the lack of any real news about all of the completely bonkers things he says, meanwhile if Obama said any of this it would be the end...
If you find yourself starting to get anxious again, focus on things that you can do to help the outcome. So check on some friends to see if they're registered and have a plan to vote. See if someone will need help getting to the polls. There are also ways to volunteer as a helpline for voters who have problems on the day of - it's not cold calling people, but instead being helpful for someone in need. These are all things that will make it easier for others and will help stave off anxiety. Hang in there!
I've volunteered for voter information hotlines in the past and it's a great way to volunteer. It's customer/citizen support for democracy where folks want to talk to you.
Thanks, Dan! A very well thought out post leavened with your experience. This past week's outburst of panic is a real challenge to ignore. I have to wonder at the motivations driving these various "insiders". It's also deeply annoying to see so many stories that seemed calculated to generate and take advantage of folks who don't regard the stakes of this election as just another opportunity for clickbait.
When the terms ‘dead heat” and “ toss up “ are used everywhereallthetimeallatonce there is no way I am not going to panic all the time. Nor do I trust the Electoral College, a remnant of slavery and a terrible way to elect, and nor do I trust the courts.
Don't ever believe those polls and don't even read them. It's a waste of time to focus on them. They are rigged. Look at all the amazing things that are happening with voter registration and early voting. In Michigan alone 81% of 18 year olds have registered to vote this election cycle (per Laura Brill of the Civics Center Substack). Think about the 700 + former defense and national security officials who have endorsed VP Harris for President. Look at the energy of her campaign. She, Tim Walz, Doug Emhoff and Gwen Walz are all over the place, as are her many surrogates. President Obama, Liz Cheney, Bernie Sanders, etc. Senator Raphael Warnock was in PA over the weekend campaigning for VP Harris with Josh Shapiro. There are so many events planned over the next 22 days. She is going on "Charlamagne tha God" Breakfast Club podcast tomorrow morning. This podcast is very popular with Black men. Remember Black men were ordered by President Obama to get off the couch!
The CNN town hall in PA next week. There are busloads of Republicans for Harris, Nikki Haley supporters for Harris, Veterans, Union Members, etc canvassing and phone banking. "Do Something!" Don't agonize over the stupid polls
Thanks for the shoutout for The Civics Center, Linda! Here's that Michigan data you mentioned: https://thecivicscenter.substack.com/p/new-data-michigan-continues-to-outperform and here's TCC's latest on PA: https://thecivicscenter.substack.com/p/latest-data-pennsylvania only 48.5% of 18yos are registered there, meaning roughly 81,000 remain unregistered with just a week to go before their deadline. The Civics Center notes that 86% of *registered* 18-24yos turned out in 2020.
Why I am very optimistic about Nov... It's not the polls... It's the 2020 numbers. Here's my back of the envelope forecast: The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes! So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together? Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly.. Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President. This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition. What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters. This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020. And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away. He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters. That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops. I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more deranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020. It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020. We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game. With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states. And what about those scary polls? The polls have become particularly unstable but are are trending in Harris direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters can say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? Actually because political polls, no matter how unbiased they try to be, partisan political tools that journalists use to tell election stories. We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
The 2022 results are also important. Women came out to vote in huge numbers. That is instructive for this year.
Big story of 2022 is that educated, active voters are moving in a Democratic direction. Mid terms are always lower turnout, and at this point lower turnout benefits Dems, so to make up for the ignoramuses that will turn out for Trump this year we will needs lots of new, young voters to put Kamala over the top. Fortunately Kamala is a great candidate who is inspiring to young people as well as regular Democratic voters.
I like your envelope!
Thank you for being the absolute master of saying things that are both accurate and uplifting at the same time. In the current environment, that is an almost impossible balancing act to pull off, and yet you do it time after time.
With three weeks to go, the polls don't matter anymore. The election is within our margin of effort, so we'll do the same work regardless of whatever the polls say. Some thoughts:
1. People are actually voting now, and that data is much more valuable to us than a poll.
2. Polls are based on models of the electorate. Most of the polls assume the electorate will look like 2020 plus some extra weighting for Trump voters because of the polling misses in 2020. At best that's an educated guess, and there are reasonable arguments that the electorate will look different after Dobbs and with Harris now in the race.
3. Republican aligned pollsters are dumping tons of low quality polls in order to skew the average. They did the same thing in 2022.
4. None of the polls account for our grassroots efforts, so let's go win this thing!
Great thoughts!
100% agreed that the early voting data is much more useful for us if we want to have some idea where things are going.
And if you're in a problem where the solution is to do an action (vote), then anything that leads you to not do the solution-action is counterproductive. What would a poll tell someone who is going to vote? Nothing useful. Will you vote Trump if he's ahead in the polls? Will you stay home because Harris is 5 points up? That's ridiculous. We all vote, we all help each other, and we win.
Not sure how much of this is hopium and how much of it is a real hunch, but I believe it's quite likely that pollsters trying to correct for 2020 have overcorrected and are inflating his support.
I don't have any evidence to support it but it just feels right. Kind of MAGA of me, lol.
I live and work part time in Northern Lower Michigan and work at a growing major health care corporation that serves a wide swath of traditionally Republican Michiganders. There is a surprisingly good and dedicated ground game of locals that include many converts to Harris/Walz. If this view in this slice of population is represented in Rural and Exurban groups in WI and PA (which I suspect it is) then there's a lot of cautious optimism to bear.
I have been waiting for Message Box like a fix. I can feel my anxiety rising and I know it doesn’t help to listen too much to the chatter. You have calmed me down a bit. Any chance you would like to write a Message a box every morning? Like those daily affirmations? Just kidding. Sorta.
Hi Phyllis, I hope you’re also listening to POD Save America and reading Jessica Craven’s Chop Wood Carry Water substack to help with the jitters. These are helping me through the anxiety and keeping me motivated to keep working.
Definitely PSA but never heard of the other one. I will check it out!
We Phyllises have to stick together 😉
Right--so I can swallow.
Yes pls!
Chillax and work it. Then get ready for the real crazy.
Yeah, I am personally more worried about the week(s) AFTER Election Day. I think our democracy is going to get a serious stress test.
Agreed
Thanks for this reality check, and panic quash. I'm in Michigan and have been phone banking in Michigan and I will reiterate that volunteering helps the campaign and helps us, too! You get to "do something" as Michelle Obama pleaded, and "when we fight we win" isn't just a rallying cry, it's fact-based strategy.
That's what Michelle Obama said to do: do something!
I don’t pay attention to the polls. Before I retired, one of my groups built and maintained credit scoring models (for a lot of reasons much more accurate than political public opinion polls). Those statisticians , who came from credit bureaus and public polling orgs, told me once you have a race this close polls are useless—the difference is finer than polls are capable of differentiating. It’s like doing eye surgery with a pocket knife instead of a laser. And there are no laser-like polls.
I suppose the campaigns use their internal polls to identify segments of the electorate to focus on, or geographic areas. But for us, they’re merely a feature of the media, there for the same reason that newspapers used to have comic strips and crossword puzzles. Entertainment.
My hope, based on polling, is that Trump’s recent degraded lunacy has disheartened his least strong adherents. My next door neighbors, as we were all doing Milton cleanup yesterday, told me they could no longer vote for Trump (but could not vote for a Dem). The issues that finally got them were the Haitian immigrant lies and the FEMA lies.
I also wonder how many of these people that say they won't vote for Trump, will secretly vote for Harris. I recently read an article about a TX Republican who said that very thing. They can't stomach admitting to voting for a Dem, but know that this is the best choice for their country and the future of their party.
Will you just stop? Tom is a great contributor.
You know he will never stop. And it aggravates me more than I can express that blocking him doesn't actually, you know, prevent me from seeing his posts. Huge fail in the Substack architecture.
Just: you can be mean. Thats not language its character.
You are a simpleton. Credit scores correlating to voter IDs? Never implied that and can’t imagine what value that would have. You jumped to a simpleton’s conclusion.
Credit scoring is used to automate credit decisions. In the old days, humans did this, and as we carefully studied and discovered, humans bring their attitudes, beliefs and prejudices into a decision. Is that a female name? Hispanic? Typically black (to the decider?). Too old? Too young? Building a credit model, using statistical science, excludes factors that are truly meaningless, unfair, and prejudicial. So a better and more predictive outcome and fairer to the applicant.
—wait is this too complicated? Will you again misunderstand?
Didn’t sell the data as selling data from a bank is breaking federal law. And unethical even if it weren’t. And no one would buy a proprietary model.
So there’s how you failed to grasp. Because you seem very simple and fail to understand complicated issues. Maybe find a substack about crayolas or one about comic books.
Names, insults; leave.
And one more thing to add about Politico, Axios, NY Times, heck even PSA. Trump IS the news. Without him, this entire multi-million dollar ecosystem of rebellion and political-tainment is mostly over. There will always be MAGA but let's face it, there will never be another Trump. And with a 24 hour news cycle, podcast universe, and social media army almost entirely devoted to informed Democrats, the only way to keep us engaged is to worry the fuck out of us. I mean, it's literally 6am and I am already engaging with my favorite newsletter and PSA host before I move on to The NY Times. If they write it, we will come…..
And speaking of The NY Times… https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/11/style/pod-save-america-biden-trump-harris.html
Thanks for pointing this out.
Great points. I am largely a defender of reliable journalism because we do want journalists trained in ethics and processes. But I've been extremely disappointed with the main outlets - beyond my usual discontent. We need a free press; we need reliable news -- social media and influencers are terrible sources of news, and we need to keep calling those out as bad. But standard journalistic outlets have been failing us in many ways (we have been failing ourselves too by constantly Charlie Browning it and falling for the clickbait), and I'm also not relying as much on NYT and WaPo.
The press has let us down over and over again. Having said that, the interview with David Plouffe helps bring balance to my view of the polls. My confidence in the data is weaker now more than ever because of the closeness of the race. But--Trump is so disqualified from being President again. Anyone who is reasonable has to wonder why this race is close at all? Is there a common sense universe out there?
Agreed. I have been more than annoyed about The NY Times coverage of literally everything. I am planning on cancelling my subscription after the election. The imbalance of coverage, the lack of any real news about all of the completely bonkers things he says, meanwhile if Obama said any of this it would be the end...
Thank you! This makes me feel better. ❤️
If you find yourself starting to get anxious again, focus on things that you can do to help the outcome. So check on some friends to see if they're registered and have a plan to vote. See if someone will need help getting to the polls. There are also ways to volunteer as a helpline for voters who have problems on the day of - it's not cold calling people, but instead being helpful for someone in need. These are all things that will make it easier for others and will help stave off anxiety. Hang in there!
I do that already.
I've volunteered for voter information hotlines in the past and it's a great way to volunteer. It's customer/citizen support for democracy where folks want to talk to you.
I did watch your special Pod Save America podcast. It expands on what you write about in this Message Box and I found it very helpful. Thank you.
Thanks, Dan! A very well thought out post leavened with your experience. This past week's outburst of panic is a real challenge to ignore. I have to wonder at the motivations driving these various "insiders". It's also deeply annoying to see so many stories that seemed calculated to generate and take advantage of folks who don't regard the stakes of this election as just another opportunity for clickbait.
When the terms ‘dead heat” and “ toss up “ are used everywhereallthetimeallatonce there is no way I am not going to panic all the time. Nor do I trust the Electoral College, a remnant of slavery and a terrible way to elect, and nor do I trust the courts.
There is a 100% effective way to stop obsessing about polls.
DO THE WORK!!
Trust me, when you are phone banking or knocking doors, you are not thinking about the polls.
Well--that's right.