It's Time to Stop Panicking About the Polls

Media narratives come and go, but the race has been in the same place for a while

It is a tradition among Democrats in the Trump era. Around the first couple of weeks of October, we lose our minds and briefly forget everything we have learned about politics. Democratic electeds and operatives start panicking about the polls and dial up every reporter in their contacts to offload their anxiety in the least helpful ways possible.

We are in one of those moments now. Here’s Axios from last week:

There's growing worry among Democrats that Harris seems stuck, even sliding a bit, after a strong start to her young presidential campaign. Her media blitz, heavy spending and largely favorable coverage don't seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Democrats say.

Democrats called up The New Republic’s Greg Sargent to Monday morning quarterback the campaign’s strategy:

Some Democrats worry, for instance, that the party still isn’t doing enough to engage low-propensity Black and Latino voters, particularly young men. There is time to repair this. Democrats also wonder if they failed to define Trump early in the cycle, letting him slowly rehabilitate his favorability numbers. Still others fear they didn’t remind voters early on of the horrors of Trump’s first term, leaving them with rosy memories of his presidency—including blue-collar voters’ fond impressions of the Trump economy. Those latter two problems may not be repairable in time.

And here’s Politico’s take on rising Dem anxiety:

Democratic operatives, including some of Kamala Harris’ own staffers, are growing increasingly concerned about her relatively light campaign schedule, which has her holding fewer events than Donald Trump and avoiding unscripted interactions with voters and the press almost entirely.

In interviews with POLITICO, nearly two dozen Democrats described Harris as running a do-no-harm, risk-averse approach to the race they fear could hamper her as the campaign enters its final 30-day stretch.

On one hand, I get it. The stakes could not be higher and the race could not be closer. It’s equal parts mystifying and enraging that someone as dumb and dangerous as Donald Trump could win the election. However, to quote a famous meme from this exact moment in the 2008 campaign:

“Everyone needs to chill the fuck out.”

I am not telling anyone to stop “bedwetting.” And I am certainly NOT telling people that Kamala Harris will definitely win. Trump may still win this race. By some measures, Trump is stronger than he was in 2020. But the whiplash between the Democratic elation of a few weeks ago and the full-on panic of the last few days is detached from reality. This has been a remarkably stable race. The vibes changed, but the race hasn’t.

A Steady State of the Race

With three weeks to go, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a dead-heat race nationally and in all seven battleground states. That’s where the race was before the Democratic convention, after the second debate, and after the second assassination attempt on Trump. For an election beset by a series of unprecedented events, the Harris-Trump race remains remarkably steady. Check out this chart from the New York Times polling average:

All seven battleground states are within two points — essentially statistical ties. If you squint, you can catch slight movement towards Trump over the last two weeks in the polling averages in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While there has been also  some movement in Harris’s direction in some other states., Maybe that’s real. Maybe it’s just noise. Either way, remember that polls are not predictive. They are imprecise snapshots in time. I bring up this imprecision not to suggest that the polls are “wrong” or “biased” or that the averages are irrevocably screwed because of a flood of junk GOP polls. Polls are inherently imprecise. That’s why there’s a margin of error. A poll with Kamala Harris up two and a poll with her down two say the same thing. This race is a toss-up.

These dramatic mood shifts based on polling movement within the margin of error are understandable given the stakes, but they do not reflect reality.

I encourage you to check out my interview on Pod Save America with David Plouffe, a senior advisor to the Harris Campaign. No one is smarter or has more experience in close races. He puts the recent polls into perspective.

Kamala Harris’s Upside

Trump has structural advantages. He is better known. The Electoral College has a Republican bias. People are unhappy with the economy, and President Biden’s approval rating is underwater.

These are tough political headwinds to overcome. However, Kamala Harris has some real advantages over these final three weeks.

First, Kamala Harris has a higher ceiling. Trump never received more than 47% of the vote nationally and tends to cap out at about 48% in the battleground states. That’s enough to win, but only barely. As evidenced by Biden’s numbers in 2020 and Democratic performance in these battleground states, Harris has the greater potential to grow her vote total than Trump.

Second, Harris is the better, more popular candidate. She isn’t perfect on the stump, but her appearances in the media and on the campaign trail benefit her. Trump's — not so much. Blueprint, a Democratic research firm, tested clips from Harris’s recent interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle and every clip was viewed positively by six in ten voters, and every clip made those who saw it more likely to vote for her. Next week, Harris is barnstorming six battleground states with at least 19 events.

Finally, she has more money to spend over the last few weeks. In a close race, a better field operation makes the difference; and Harris has the better field operation.

None of this means she WILL win. But it does mean she CAN win. It will take work from all of us. Start channeling your anxiety into action by volunteering to help elect Kamala Harris. There is no time like the present. At Vote Save America, you can sign up for volunteer opportunities that have been vetted by the team at Crooked Media.

This is a very winnable race if — and only if — we do the work. We beat Donald Trump in 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022. We can do it again. We won’t win if we spend the final three weeks panicking about what could happen.