I think there is a fundamental flaw with this reasoning. It leaves out states, the basic building block of our Republic. Instead, it assumes we are a plebiscite democracy. We are not.
The “We are the majority “ approach resolves into an urban verses rural paradigm. I live in a rural, frontier state. For decades we had a Republican legislature, but elected Democrats to most state offices. This last election the Democrats suffered a clean sweep.
Here is my basic question, why don’t Democrats have a fifty state strategy? Why is it accepted wisdom that Democrats will lose the majority of the states? Why is a split along urban - rural constituencies seen as inevitable?
Certainly the grasping oligarchy has its tentacles in every rural community. Certainly each and every element of our economic and social system are interrelated, interconnected, and in trouble.
What is it that rural and urban communities have in common? Why do we let right wing fear mongering set the terms of the debate? Why do Progressives and Democrats write off rural voters?
How does a "fifty state strategy" differ from the current BBB agenda? What is your concrete recommendation? DNC has had a "50-state strategy" consistently since Dean. What is missing?
Why are progressives in last place in so many states?
Personally, I think it is because Progressives and Democrats have policies, but no compelling narrative.
The Right scapegoats. The left decries a host of politics of prejudice.
Where is a compelling existential narrative about economics? Where is the narrative about economic justice?
And, if you say there is such a narrative, why are we loosing in most states? Why are the Greedy Old Plutocrats able to gerrymander both state legislatures and the House?
Politics is pragmatic, you either win or you have your ass handed to you.
I don't think you're wrong. I just don't think it's so bleak. There are models for a successful rural politics in the party. John Tester, Steve Bullock, Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bennet, Sherodd Brown, Tina Smith, Debbie Stabenow, Angus King, and even Bernie Sanders and Joe Manchin. All represent(ed) rural consituents fairly successfully. Their consistutent work and messaging could be a successful model for a winning politics in rural America.
Bullock got his head handed to him in the 2020 election. Here in Montana there are two Democratic constituencies; the woke urbanite and reservations. Bullock won as AG and Governor because he carried the cities. Tester is a dirt farmer. He has a slightly broader appeal.
I’ve never been an optimist. I’d like to think I’m a realist.
Progressives seem incredibly naive when it comes to the rules of the game. Too many of the comments I see in discussions on how to “protect the Republic,” show no understanding of the nuts and bolts of our Republic.
Thanks so much for this honest and realistic assessment. The truth is, as disappointed as we are, and as furious as we are at Manchin, we do need to get our elected reps back on their horses to get some things done next year. If we can somehow, next year, pass the climate change portion of BBB, pass the child tax credit even if means tested (not opposed in principle, but the Feds do such a horrible job of means testing, making benefits seem unreachable for those who need it most), and Voting Rights/Election Integrity, then we will still have achieved more than anyone should have expected.
As for us, we have to keep volunteering, working, giving to our max, realizing that the bleaker the potential outcome is, the harder we have to work. I’m going to try to turn disappointment, dejection, and anger into fuel to get things done.
Agreed. Anger abates and the work still needs to be done. So, I'm turning to the making lemonade bit. Truth is BBB was a deeply flawed bill. This is not how you roll out policy effectively. So, we trim our sails and do messaging bills that we can pass. BBB becomes two reconciliation bills in 2022. Raising taxes on the rich to pay for health care for all Americans. Raising taxes on polluters to pay for saving the planet. 75% of the BBB social agenda can be described as "health care" (e.g., paid sick leave, increased subsidies, hearing aids under Medicare, home health care, etc.) and the climate bit that Manchin will permit combined with the housing and infrastructure can be described as a "climate" bill. We roll them out and pass something. Best case scenario.
I like these ideas of putting forward important pieces of BBB. Even if they can't pass without changing the filibuster or being part of a budget reconciliation, every legislator should have to go on record as for/against these popular and common sense proposals. Then they should have to defend that decision every day on the campaign trail. I think it would help tremendously to put a spotlight on candidates' stance on these important issues.
A very good read on the situation. An historic presidency to be sure. But, the strategy and messaging is awful. Democrats need to fire the beltway consultants and hire some Madison Avenue Mad Men. The statement from the Whitehouse yesterday was a full page of gobbeldy gook about what BBB is and how it will work. Instead, how about “Senator Manchin drives a $200,000 Maserati, lives in a 3 million dollar mansion, owns a million dollar yacht, and has a net worth of 8 million dollars. He has received over 5 million dollars in donations from right wing billionaires over the last few years. He just stabbed the great American middle class in the back, appearing on the FOX News channel no less, to appease his wealthy donors. The Senate should immediately reconvene and vote on BBB so all Senators voting no are publicly and officially on the record.” Put Manchin on the defensive for a change. If he switches parties so be it. However my guess is he’d rather be a Democratic Party pooper than the most junior member of the GOP.
Had the same emotional reaction. Got very angry. Thought about all the payback we could mount. Payback feels good, and, in this case, righteous. But, the sober light of dawn reminded me that the inevitable reality that he could bolt and that he'd be in a better political position if he left the party. The fact that he didn't leave prior to the 2018 elections says something. And if he left, Clyde is right, we get zero more judges approved. We have the potential for 65 circuit court judges in the next year, but zero if we lose the Senate. Trump, by contrast had 54 circuit court appointments in 4 years. 65 might be overly optimistic, but the threat of a midterm wipeout will push more federal judges to announce seniority status. Remember, they don't lose anything by going to seniority status, and anyone can do it, so long as they have a collective 10 years on the federal bench, that means every single Obama judge that was appointed in 2009-2012 can do it before the end of next year, and if any others were district court judges before being elevated, they can do it too. On top of that there are still 20+ Clinton and GHW Bush judges knocking around the federal circuit courts. Point is, we need the majority, and so, we need Manchin.
"we would all be better off if we reckoned with our political reality and treated the voters like adults"
Perfect place to start the new year.
Your list of accomplishments and then the mention of COVID reminds me of the saying "A Smith and Wesson beats four aces".
And that can also be applied to turning this boat around. Republicans believe they're holding four aces heading into next year. And they do if we play according to their rules and on their playing field. But one thing Trump's disciples cannot do is tell the truth. They have no choice but to echo and amplify his choices. And that offers Democrats an opportunity if they're courageous enough to take advantage of it.
We can tell the truth. All of it. Imagine a news conference preceded with these announcements.
"Vaccines by themselves have not brought the pandemic under control, primarily because so many refuse them. That is placing our economy in general and our health care workers in particular at increased risk. And I am tired of having to continue to ask the vast majority who have been vaccinated to suffer because of the irresponsibility of the minority. But that is the reality on the ground, and we are responding and adapting to it. Our program to do so will be presented tomorrow. I will tell you right now it will incorporate a massive and immediate increase production and distribution of rapid home tests and N95 masks.
As we bring the pandemic under control, we need programs in place that support our workers so that the economy can expand. Those programs are in our Build Back Better bill, which is moving far too slowly in Congress. So we're going to break the bill into each of his components and require every one of our Senators and Congresspeople to vote on each component. If they believe that improving the health care system isn't worth doing, they can vote that way. If they believe that ending child poverty isn't worth doing, they can vote that way. And so on. We will get them on record, and we will ensure that their constituents know how they voted.
The United States used to be considered the strongest democracy on earth. The entire world looked to us for leadership. Not anymore. Other countries are now ranked ahead of us. We need to reverse this slide. Our voting rights bills will start to do that. But they're hung up in Congress as well. We will move the bills to votes, and we will ensure that the constituents of each Congressperson and Senator knows how they voted."
Yada yada yada. Another issue the administration could speak to includes advising the Speaker to end permitting legislators to trade stocks.
I've been a life long pessimist so I had no illusions that BBB and voting rights would pass. It's been clear since last spring that Manchin and Sinema are every bit as deplorable as the GOP fascists attacking our country.
But I'll tell you what really surprised me. Most of the Dems in Congress aren't idiots, they knew they had a slim to no chance of getting BBB and voting rights passed, but they kept fighting! They had no other choice but to fight and they fought their hearts out. They had private meetings, set deadlines, made optimistic statements, not to keep the base involved, but to keep Manchin and Sinema in the negotiations. As long as Manchin and Sinema were talking they at least had a chance. The way Biden and most of the Dems fought, knowing full well it was almost impossible, makes me want to work even harder in 22 to get more of those types of Dems elected!
I think the problem is that Manchin and Sinema changed their positions multiple times in the negotiations. For example, it was Manchin that demanded the CTC be limited to one year, but now he claims that his demand is a trick by the House Democratic caucus to artificially lower the total price tag. He's repeatedly said he supported the CTC, but now says he won't support it. It's hard to negotiate with someone like that.
Why isn't there motivation for some moderate Republican to replace Joe as the pivotal vote? It's unnatural that there's a gap in the middle of our polity. What structural flaw removes the middle ground?
In my opinion, the structural flaw is really two things: Trump has almost ever GOP officeholder scared of the base. The second is that the Congress is full of GOP hacks, who put greater value on short-term political victory than on doing what’s right even for their own constituency. Also, I guess, even the usual suspects are pretty rightwing people. Murkowski, Romney, Collins. In normal times, Dems considered them pretty right of center.
Intersting. When the bill was the BBB (ugh, just the name is black hole, no wonder the public has no idea what is in it), it was easier for the GOP moderates to oppose. But, if it's three bills: (1) fighting inflation; (2) fighting climate change; and (3) fighting to expand healthcare, maybe it's harder to oppose. Maybe 2022's bipartisan bill could be a relief bill to fight inflation that could include a one year extension of the CTC, EITC, and the drug pricing reforms (including limited Medicare price negotiation - one of the most popular policies, ever). A bill that fights inflation that the GOP opposes...sounds like better politics than something called the BBB.
Democrats should be pounding away relentlessly on what Biden has called the #1 issue - voting rights. It also helps to draw the essential contrast between the 2 parties - one is pro-democracy the other is anti-democracy. Keep it simple and repeat the message day in and day out. Even the betrayer-in-chief, Joe Manchin, seems willing to modify the filibuster to get it done. He can then work on persuading the Pharma lobbyist masquerading as a Senator from AZ to get on board. Dems must go all in.
Keep pushing forward, accentuate the positive, get out there with an aggressive “aw, shucks, we’re just here to help people” approach. Let’s call it the George Bailey message, in keeping with the holidays - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4ne13Zft9Q. We're starting a constituent services committee in our county party. Need a crosswalk for the kids in your neighborhood? Aw, shucks, let's get to work on that!
BTW, I know the numbers are ugly, but WV is not a Republican state. It’s state full of people who have been lied to so many times, and robbed blind so many times, that nobody can even think straight anymore. Joe Manchin is just betting he can gut it out on BS, just like all the silly certificates and trinkets his uncle A James handed out like candy while the state was being swindled by the coal industry.
Doesn’t know how to communicate BBB to the WV people? Here’s a start: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/West-Virginia_BBB-State-Fact-Sheet.pdf That’s millions of $ in free stuff from the gov, and there’s nothing West Virginians like more than free stuff from the government. Plus, all of that is a damn site more useful than free commodity cheese being handed out at a Wyoming County senior center, and I’ve SEEN people line up for that!
There’s no ideology behind frustration, anger and stagnation. It’s a powder keg waiting to explode. We just have to find some Democrats with who can bring the flint and steel, in WV, and everywhere else.
Maybe it's delusional, but I think that the Jan 6 commission's findings are going to influence some Republicans and shift things. I'm not sure who, but I just can't imagine they are going to continue to stay hitched to someone who allowed the insurrection to happen. I think you are right - this is structural. But I think it is also emotional - and that is a good thing. Dems have this kind of learned helplessness, and I love that AOC and the squad are shaking things up. I just hope President Biden is more receptive to them now.
The accomplishment of this period is that you can write "Democrats will always be in the position of persuading and compromising with people more conservative than we are." You are accurately (I think) annexing and identifying "Democrats" -- a broad "we" -- with a progressive agenda. For most of my life, that would have been a fantasy. Apparently some combination of demographic change, encroaching fascism, imperial decline, and climate crisis have got us here. Do we still have the time and talent to do anything with that democratic (small "d") development? We should not sell the democratic impulse short. Americans really do tend to believe that "governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed." With organizing help, and luck, we act on that.
Just getting around to reading this a little late in the day. Thank you Dan for the tough love. Managing expectations is everything. We are only disappointed when we fall short. You are right about the miscalculation we all made. My brother has been chirping this into my ear (this isn't FDR's supermajority) and made me read A Thousand Small Sanities and I get it, I get it, I get it. But when the planet and the democracy are in immediate threat, we don't really have time for all those small sanities to work their magic, we need decisive action now. I'll say it again and again, I just don't understand how politicians like Manchin and Sinema don't see what's at stake, or how they value their own small personal gains over a habitable planet or functioning democracy for their grandchildren. Will. never. understand. that. I help lead a Swing Left group but have had to take some time off for mental re-stabilizing. Jumping back in in January - no other choice given the stakes. But damn, this doesn't feel good.
Center-left country with a center-right government. . . soon to be?
I appreciate your thoughts on treating the voters like adults and managing expectations for voters. At the same time, many Americans (not necessarily the voters) cannot tell the difference between democracy, Democrats, and a hole in the ground. So as their rights slip away, they may not even notice (or care). I think our job right now is to make them care.
Listened to Amicus with Walter Shaub this morning (don't recommend unless you have sugar or alcohol nearby). We need to be banging the drum on VOTING RIGHTS because we are pro-democracy and the R's range from fascist enablers to fascist leaders.
Just like a pandemic, the United States is not immune from things that happen in the rest of the world. January 6th was just the beginning of the ongoing coup. It can absolutely happen here.
Going to go bake some cookies. Keep on keepin' on.
I say start getting serious about, and "get caught trying" to be serious about actually reducing the net costs of the pandemic. I think that should include (have included) a big public push to make cheap, rapid testing universally available and be noisy, full speed ahead on rolling out new vaccine variants and anti-virals. This should include lots of public empathy for people who have sacrificed travel, worked from home, kept children home from school and day care (maybe include a plug for BBB to help mitigate the damage to children's education this caused ), given up social interactions with their friends to protect others from harm and give people more time to get triple vaccinated. Praise people who, even with some hesitation cared enough about their fellow citizens to get vaccinated and praise for firms who care enough about their workers and customers to require vaccination for workplace participation. Appeal to the patriotism of those who still have not gotten all three doses to go ahead and get vaccinated, and not wait for the new vaccine variants that we are working as hard as possible to get to you.
I think this would be the best possible message to go with in 2022. Did Republicans lift a finger to help Democrats fight the pandemic? No And its not incompatible with trying to get Joe Manchin on board with as big, popular ta ax and transfer BBB as possible.
lf BBB is dead, why don't Dems take it apart and introduce its parts piece by piece, forcing Repubs to vote against items that are popular? Would this work legislatively? Won't it be a better political position?
What's missing is the trust factor. After the House Progressives gave up their leverage because Pres. Biden persuaded them to trust him why would they trust him again? By betraying the President, Manchin caused the President to betray us. And in a way, the lack of transparency from elected Democrats about political reality is betrayal that will take a long time to correct. The list you gave of all the policy accomplishments in 2021 fades in the discouraging blows to both the BBB and the voting rights legislation. Not great, Dan.
As tempted as I am to look backward and vent about what Democrats from President Biden on down should have done differently, you're right - we need to figure out how to level with voters. The part I don't know how to solve yet is how to do so in a non-defeatist way. For me, it starts with this: no message can substitute for results. So we need to deliver a policy win that puts winds in activists' sails and a policy win that hits people's pocketbooks. Educational debt relief checks both boxes, and we NEED a leftward change of course on immigration. And it is really, really important to avoid shitting on activists.
I fear that tuition debt relief looks like “elites” taking care of each other to much of the country. What about all the blue collar folks who paid for their vocational education themselves? Welders, plumbers, HVAC techs, nurses, cops, some programmers, firefighters, etc? We need those votes. Why not forgive their educational debts? If we are going to act on debt, let’s do so comprehensively and equitably.
I would want any debt relief to cover vo-tech training debt too. Very important. And a lot of that coursework for the professions you list here goes through community colleges, so it's not an altogether separate thing.
I think there is a fundamental flaw with this reasoning. It leaves out states, the basic building block of our Republic. Instead, it assumes we are a plebiscite democracy. We are not.
The “We are the majority “ approach resolves into an urban verses rural paradigm. I live in a rural, frontier state. For decades we had a Republican legislature, but elected Democrats to most state offices. This last election the Democrats suffered a clean sweep.
Here is my basic question, why don’t Democrats have a fifty state strategy? Why is it accepted wisdom that Democrats will lose the majority of the states? Why is a split along urban - rural constituencies seen as inevitable?
Certainly the grasping oligarchy has its tentacles in every rural community. Certainly each and every element of our economic and social system are interrelated, interconnected, and in trouble.
What is it that rural and urban communities have in common? Why do we let right wing fear mongering set the terms of the debate? Why do Progressives and Democrats write off rural voters?
How does a "fifty state strategy" differ from the current BBB agenda? What is your concrete recommendation? DNC has had a "50-state strategy" consistently since Dean. What is missing?
My smart alec response is, you tell me.
Why are progressives in last place in so many states?
Personally, I think it is because Progressives and Democrats have policies, but no compelling narrative.
The Right scapegoats. The left decries a host of politics of prejudice.
Where is a compelling existential narrative about economics? Where is the narrative about economic justice?
And, if you say there is such a narrative, why are we loosing in most states? Why are the Greedy Old Plutocrats able to gerrymander both state legislatures and the House?
Politics is pragmatic, you either win or you have your ass handed to you.
I don't think you're wrong. I just don't think it's so bleak. There are models for a successful rural politics in the party. John Tester, Steve Bullock, Amy Klobuchar, Michael Bennet, Sherodd Brown, Tina Smith, Debbie Stabenow, Angus King, and even Bernie Sanders and Joe Manchin. All represent(ed) rural consituents fairly successfully. Their consistutent work and messaging could be a successful model for a winning politics in rural America.
Bullock got his head handed to him in the 2020 election. Here in Montana there are two Democratic constituencies; the woke urbanite and reservations. Bullock won as AG and Governor because he carried the cities. Tester is a dirt farmer. He has a slightly broader appeal.
I’ve never been an optimist. I’d like to think I’m a realist.
Progressives seem incredibly naive when it comes to the rules of the game. Too many of the comments I see in discussions on how to “protect the Republic,” show no understanding of the nuts and bolts of our Republic.
Thanks so much for this honest and realistic assessment. The truth is, as disappointed as we are, and as furious as we are at Manchin, we do need to get our elected reps back on their horses to get some things done next year. If we can somehow, next year, pass the climate change portion of BBB, pass the child tax credit even if means tested (not opposed in principle, but the Feds do such a horrible job of means testing, making benefits seem unreachable for those who need it most), and Voting Rights/Election Integrity, then we will still have achieved more than anyone should have expected.
As for us, we have to keep volunteering, working, giving to our max, realizing that the bleaker the potential outcome is, the harder we have to work. I’m going to try to turn disappointment, dejection, and anger into fuel to get things done.
Thanks, Dan, for giving us perspective.
Agreed. Anger abates and the work still needs to be done. So, I'm turning to the making lemonade bit. Truth is BBB was a deeply flawed bill. This is not how you roll out policy effectively. So, we trim our sails and do messaging bills that we can pass. BBB becomes two reconciliation bills in 2022. Raising taxes on the rich to pay for health care for all Americans. Raising taxes on polluters to pay for saving the planet. 75% of the BBB social agenda can be described as "health care" (e.g., paid sick leave, increased subsidies, hearing aids under Medicare, home health care, etc.) and the climate bit that Manchin will permit combined with the housing and infrastructure can be described as a "climate" bill. We roll them out and pass something. Best case scenario.
I like these ideas of putting forward important pieces of BBB. Even if they can't pass without changing the filibuster or being part of a budget reconciliation, every legislator should have to go on record as for/against these popular and common sense proposals. Then they should have to defend that decision every day on the campaign trail. I think it would help tremendously to put a spotlight on candidates' stance on these important issues.
A very good read on the situation. An historic presidency to be sure. But, the strategy and messaging is awful. Democrats need to fire the beltway consultants and hire some Madison Avenue Mad Men. The statement from the Whitehouse yesterday was a full page of gobbeldy gook about what BBB is and how it will work. Instead, how about “Senator Manchin drives a $200,000 Maserati, lives in a 3 million dollar mansion, owns a million dollar yacht, and has a net worth of 8 million dollars. He has received over 5 million dollars in donations from right wing billionaires over the last few years. He just stabbed the great American middle class in the back, appearing on the FOX News channel no less, to appease his wealthy donors. The Senate should immediately reconvene and vote on BBB so all Senators voting no are publicly and officially on the record.” Put Manchin on the defensive for a change. If he switches parties so be it. However my guess is he’d rather be a Democratic Party pooper than the most junior member of the GOP.
Plus we need him for confirming judges and other appointments.
Had the same emotional reaction. Got very angry. Thought about all the payback we could mount. Payback feels good, and, in this case, righteous. But, the sober light of dawn reminded me that the inevitable reality that he could bolt and that he'd be in a better political position if he left the party. The fact that he didn't leave prior to the 2018 elections says something. And if he left, Clyde is right, we get zero more judges approved. We have the potential for 65 circuit court judges in the next year, but zero if we lose the Senate. Trump, by contrast had 54 circuit court appointments in 4 years. 65 might be overly optimistic, but the threat of a midterm wipeout will push more federal judges to announce seniority status. Remember, they don't lose anything by going to seniority status, and anyone can do it, so long as they have a collective 10 years on the federal bench, that means every single Obama judge that was appointed in 2009-2012 can do it before the end of next year, and if any others were district court judges before being elevated, they can do it too. On top of that there are still 20+ Clinton and GHW Bush judges knocking around the federal circuit courts. Point is, we need the majority, and so, we need Manchin.
"we would all be better off if we reckoned with our political reality and treated the voters like adults"
Perfect place to start the new year.
Your list of accomplishments and then the mention of COVID reminds me of the saying "A Smith and Wesson beats four aces".
And that can also be applied to turning this boat around. Republicans believe they're holding four aces heading into next year. And they do if we play according to their rules and on their playing field. But one thing Trump's disciples cannot do is tell the truth. They have no choice but to echo and amplify his choices. And that offers Democrats an opportunity if they're courageous enough to take advantage of it.
We can tell the truth. All of it. Imagine a news conference preceded with these announcements.
"Vaccines by themselves have not brought the pandemic under control, primarily because so many refuse them. That is placing our economy in general and our health care workers in particular at increased risk. And I am tired of having to continue to ask the vast majority who have been vaccinated to suffer because of the irresponsibility of the minority. But that is the reality on the ground, and we are responding and adapting to it. Our program to do so will be presented tomorrow. I will tell you right now it will incorporate a massive and immediate increase production and distribution of rapid home tests and N95 masks.
As we bring the pandemic under control, we need programs in place that support our workers so that the economy can expand. Those programs are in our Build Back Better bill, which is moving far too slowly in Congress. So we're going to break the bill into each of his components and require every one of our Senators and Congresspeople to vote on each component. If they believe that improving the health care system isn't worth doing, they can vote that way. If they believe that ending child poverty isn't worth doing, they can vote that way. And so on. We will get them on record, and we will ensure that their constituents know how they voted.
The United States used to be considered the strongest democracy on earth. The entire world looked to us for leadership. Not anymore. Other countries are now ranked ahead of us. We need to reverse this slide. Our voting rights bills will start to do that. But they're hung up in Congress as well. We will move the bills to votes, and we will ensure that the constituents of each Congressperson and Senator knows how they voted."
Yada yada yada. Another issue the administration could speak to includes advising the Speaker to end permitting legislators to trade stocks.
Etc.
If only. Sadly our media consultants are woefully unable to advocate for or write anything close to a coherent and forceful response like that.
I've been a life long pessimist so I had no illusions that BBB and voting rights would pass. It's been clear since last spring that Manchin and Sinema are every bit as deplorable as the GOP fascists attacking our country.
But I'll tell you what really surprised me. Most of the Dems in Congress aren't idiots, they knew they had a slim to no chance of getting BBB and voting rights passed, but they kept fighting! They had no other choice but to fight and they fought their hearts out. They had private meetings, set deadlines, made optimistic statements, not to keep the base involved, but to keep Manchin and Sinema in the negotiations. As long as Manchin and Sinema were talking they at least had a chance. The way Biden and most of the Dems fought, knowing full well it was almost impossible, makes me want to work even harder in 22 to get more of those types of Dems elected!
I think the problem is that Manchin and Sinema changed their positions multiple times in the negotiations. For example, it was Manchin that demanded the CTC be limited to one year, but now he claims that his demand is a trick by the House Democratic caucus to artificially lower the total price tag. He's repeatedly said he supported the CTC, but now says he won't support it. It's hard to negotiate with someone like that.
Why isn't there motivation for some moderate Republican to replace Joe as the pivotal vote? It's unnatural that there's a gap in the middle of our polity. What structural flaw removes the middle ground?
In my opinion, the structural flaw is really two things: Trump has almost ever GOP officeholder scared of the base. The second is that the Congress is full of GOP hacks, who put greater value on short-term political victory than on doing what’s right even for their own constituency. Also, I guess, even the usual suspects are pretty rightwing people. Murkowski, Romney, Collins. In normal times, Dems considered them pretty right of center.
Intersting. When the bill was the BBB (ugh, just the name is black hole, no wonder the public has no idea what is in it), it was easier for the GOP moderates to oppose. But, if it's three bills: (1) fighting inflation; (2) fighting climate change; and (3) fighting to expand healthcare, maybe it's harder to oppose. Maybe 2022's bipartisan bill could be a relief bill to fight inflation that could include a one year extension of the CTC, EITC, and the drug pricing reforms (including limited Medicare price negotiation - one of the most popular policies, ever). A bill that fights inflation that the GOP opposes...sounds like better politics than something called the BBB.
Democrats should be pounding away relentlessly on what Biden has called the #1 issue - voting rights. It also helps to draw the essential contrast between the 2 parties - one is pro-democracy the other is anti-democracy. Keep it simple and repeat the message day in and day out. Even the betrayer-in-chief, Joe Manchin, seems willing to modify the filibuster to get it done. He can then work on persuading the Pharma lobbyist masquerading as a Senator from AZ to get on board. Dems must go all in.
Keep pushing forward, accentuate the positive, get out there with an aggressive “aw, shucks, we’re just here to help people” approach. Let’s call it the George Bailey message, in keeping with the holidays - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4ne13Zft9Q. We're starting a constituent services committee in our county party. Need a crosswalk for the kids in your neighborhood? Aw, shucks, let's get to work on that!
BTW, I know the numbers are ugly, but WV is not a Republican state. It’s state full of people who have been lied to so many times, and robbed blind so many times, that nobody can even think straight anymore. Joe Manchin is just betting he can gut it out on BS, just like all the silly certificates and trinkets his uncle A James handed out like candy while the state was being swindled by the coal industry.
Doesn’t know how to communicate BBB to the WV people? Here’s a start: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/West-Virginia_BBB-State-Fact-Sheet.pdf That’s millions of $ in free stuff from the gov, and there’s nothing West Virginians like more than free stuff from the government. Plus, all of that is a damn site more useful than free commodity cheese being handed out at a Wyoming County senior center, and I’ve SEEN people line up for that!
There’s no ideology behind frustration, anger and stagnation. It’s a powder keg waiting to explode. We just have to find some Democrats with who can bring the flint and steel, in WV, and everywhere else.
Maybe it's delusional, but I think that the Jan 6 commission's findings are going to influence some Republicans and shift things. I'm not sure who, but I just can't imagine they are going to continue to stay hitched to someone who allowed the insurrection to happen. I think you are right - this is structural. But I think it is also emotional - and that is a good thing. Dems have this kind of learned helplessness, and I love that AOC and the squad are shaking things up. I just hope President Biden is more receptive to them now.
I agree. I wouldn’t have even a month ago. But it really feels like the ground is shifting under Jan 6 revelations.
The accomplishment of this period is that you can write "Democrats will always be in the position of persuading and compromising with people more conservative than we are." You are accurately (I think) annexing and identifying "Democrats" -- a broad "we" -- with a progressive agenda. For most of my life, that would have been a fantasy. Apparently some combination of demographic change, encroaching fascism, imperial decline, and climate crisis have got us here. Do we still have the time and talent to do anything with that democratic (small "d") development? We should not sell the democratic impulse short. Americans really do tend to believe that "governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed." With organizing help, and luck, we act on that.
Just getting around to reading this a little late in the day. Thank you Dan for the tough love. Managing expectations is everything. We are only disappointed when we fall short. You are right about the miscalculation we all made. My brother has been chirping this into my ear (this isn't FDR's supermajority) and made me read A Thousand Small Sanities and I get it, I get it, I get it. But when the planet and the democracy are in immediate threat, we don't really have time for all those small sanities to work their magic, we need decisive action now. I'll say it again and again, I just don't understand how politicians like Manchin and Sinema don't see what's at stake, or how they value their own small personal gains over a habitable planet or functioning democracy for their grandchildren. Will. never. understand. that. I help lead a Swing Left group but have had to take some time off for mental re-stabilizing. Jumping back in in January - no other choice given the stakes. But damn, this doesn't feel good.
Center-left country with a center-right government. . . soon to be?
I appreciate your thoughts on treating the voters like adults and managing expectations for voters. At the same time, many Americans (not necessarily the voters) cannot tell the difference between democracy, Democrats, and a hole in the ground. So as their rights slip away, they may not even notice (or care). I think our job right now is to make them care.
Listened to Amicus with Walter Shaub this morning (don't recommend unless you have sugar or alcohol nearby). We need to be banging the drum on VOTING RIGHTS because we are pro-democracy and the R's range from fascist enablers to fascist leaders.
Just like a pandemic, the United States is not immune from things that happen in the rest of the world. January 6th was just the beginning of the ongoing coup. It can absolutely happen here.
Going to go bake some cookies. Keep on keepin' on.
I say start getting serious about, and "get caught trying" to be serious about actually reducing the net costs of the pandemic. I think that should include (have included) a big public push to make cheap, rapid testing universally available and be noisy, full speed ahead on rolling out new vaccine variants and anti-virals. This should include lots of public empathy for people who have sacrificed travel, worked from home, kept children home from school and day care (maybe include a plug for BBB to help mitigate the damage to children's education this caused ), given up social interactions with their friends to protect others from harm and give people more time to get triple vaccinated. Praise people who, even with some hesitation cared enough about their fellow citizens to get vaccinated and praise for firms who care enough about their workers and customers to require vaccination for workplace participation. Appeal to the patriotism of those who still have not gotten all three doses to go ahead and get vaccinated, and not wait for the new vaccine variants that we are working as hard as possible to get to you.
I think this would be the best possible message to go with in 2022. Did Republicans lift a finger to help Democrats fight the pandemic? No And its not incompatible with trying to get Joe Manchin on board with as big, popular ta ax and transfer BBB as possible.
lf BBB is dead, why don't Dems take it apart and introduce its parts piece by piece, forcing Repubs to vote against items that are popular? Would this work legislatively? Won't it be a better political position?
They could and maybe they will. Next year, always next year.
What's missing is the trust factor. After the House Progressives gave up their leverage because Pres. Biden persuaded them to trust him why would they trust him again? By betraying the President, Manchin caused the President to betray us. And in a way, the lack of transparency from elected Democrats about political reality is betrayal that will take a long time to correct. The list you gave of all the policy accomplishments in 2021 fades in the discouraging blows to both the BBB and the voting rights legislation. Not great, Dan.
As tempted as I am to look backward and vent about what Democrats from President Biden on down should have done differently, you're right - we need to figure out how to level with voters. The part I don't know how to solve yet is how to do so in a non-defeatist way. For me, it starts with this: no message can substitute for results. So we need to deliver a policy win that puts winds in activists' sails and a policy win that hits people's pocketbooks. Educational debt relief checks both boxes, and we NEED a leftward change of course on immigration. And it is really, really important to avoid shitting on activists.
I fear that tuition debt relief looks like “elites” taking care of each other to much of the country. What about all the blue collar folks who paid for their vocational education themselves? Welders, plumbers, HVAC techs, nurses, cops, some programmers, firefighters, etc? We need those votes. Why not forgive their educational debts? If we are going to act on debt, let’s do so comprehensively and equitably.
I would want any debt relief to cover vo-tech training debt too. Very important. And a lot of that coursework for the professions you list here goes through community colleges, so it's not an altogether separate thing.