Should Dems Expand the Senate Map?

Our current Senate strategy has no margin for error. There are some long shot races that may be worth an investment.

The most important way to protect democracy is to elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The second most important way is to protect the Democrats’ narrow Senate majority. A Republican Senate will make governing in a Harris-Walz Administration excruciatingly difficult. A point brought home by a recent report from Semafor’s Burgess Everett:

Republicans are already vowing to block progressive nominees Harris might choose, push her Supreme Court picks to the right and potentially stop some of her lifetime judicial appointments, if they win back the Senate and she defeats Donald Trump – a split presidential-year election outcome that hasn’t happened for decades.

Many in the GOP are in a fighting mood after seeing President Joe Biden push his nominees through over the past several years, thanks to a slim Senate Democratic majority.

I can’t believe I am saying this, but a GOP Senate led by someone other than Mitch McConnell will be much more MAGA-friendly and nihilistic. If the Democrats lose the Senate, President Kamala Harris will be denied fully qualified cabinet members, and her ability to imprint on the courts will be dramatically curtailed. A Republican Senate may refuse to fill a Supreme Court vacancy for the entirety of her first term.

The Democratic plan for keeping the Senate is clear — protect their incumbents. To get to 50, they don’t need to unseat a Republican. If this strategy works, it nets out to exactly 50 seats. There is no margin for error. Given the high stakes, it’s worth exploring whether the Democrats should expand the Senate map and make a play for Republican-held seats in Florida, Texas, and elsewhere.

The Current State of Play

Democrats have a 51-49 majority. There are several Democratic incumbents in potentially tough races:

• Jackie Rosen, Nevada

• Sherrod Brown, Ohio

• Bob Casey, Pennsylvania

• Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin

• Jon Tester, Montana

There are four open Democratic seats:

• Arizona, where Ruben Gallego is taking on Kari Lake to fill Kyrsten Sinema’s seat;

• Michigan, where Elissa Slotkin is running against Mike Rogers to replace Debbie Stabenow;

• Maryland, where Angela Alsobrooks is running against Larry Hogan for Ben Cardin’s old seat; and

• West Virginia where Glen Elliot is taking on Governor Jim Justice to fill Joe Manchin’s seat.

The West Virginia seat is gone. Trump won West Virginia by 29 points in 2020. This means that the Democrats must run the table just to get to 50 seats. The good news is that the polls are looking good in most of the races. The Cook Political Report rates most of them “Lean Democrat” and Democrats are up in the polling averages in most states. None of these races are easy but most are in Blue or Purple states where Kamala Harris is expected to do well.

In addition to West Virginia, there are two races in states Trump is expected to win — Brown in Ohio and Tester in Montana. Very little high quality public polling has emerged in either state. Ohio is a toss-up because Brown has a history of getting significant support from Republicans and his opponent is flawed to say the least. A tough, but winnable race. Montana, on the other hand, is rated “Lean Republican” because Trump is expected to win the state by at least 20 points. Jon Tester is a superb politician and has a history of running excellent campaigns, so I would never, ever bet against him. But he is fighting an uphill battle in a tough state during a presidential election. Before I worked for Obama, I worked on Senate campaigns — including two in South Dakota. The first was during a midterm and we squeaked out a victory by a whopping 524 votes. The next one was during the 2004 presidential election when George W. Bush won the state by 21 points. We simply ran out of runaway, because high turnout in a Republican State is never good for a Democrat.

Needless to say, we need everything to go right to get a deadlocked Senate with Vice President Walz breaking ties.

Should Democrats Expand the Map?

Now, Republicans are up for reelection in states that Biden won in 2020. If Democrats want Republican seats, the two best options are Florida and Texas. The fact that these two states routinely torture Democrats says a lot about how tough the map is for Democrats.

In Florida, former Congresswoman Debbie Murcasel-Powell is running against Rick Scott, and Congressman Colin Allred is running against the odious and annoying Ted Cruz.

These are hard states for Democrats to win — especially in an election year. It’s been a long time since a Democrat won statewide in either. So, can we win? While these races are challenging, the polls suggest we have a shot.

Four polls were conducted in Florida in September, and none showed Scott with a lead larger than five points. There are also amendments on the ballot in Florida to legalize marijuana and guarantee abortion access that could boost Democratic turnout. A Morning Consult poll of Texas released last week showed Allred with a one-point lead.

Murcasel-Powell and Allred are excellent candidates. Tailor-made for their states. Scott and Cruz are unpopular incumbents who are more interested in making national headlines than serving their constituents.

In Nebraska, Independent Dan Osborn, a veteran and steamfitter, is running against Republican Deb Fischer. Osborn is pro-choice, pro-marijuana legalization, and pro-labor but more conservative than most Democrats on some issues like immigration. Polls suggest that the race may be closer than Republicans would like.

Given these numbers, should Democrats consider making a play for Texas and Florida? Nebraska is a little more complicated because Osborn has spurned help from national Democratic entities. Maybe it’s a fool's errand, but under the current map and political environment maintaining our majority is far from a guarantee. Most political prognosticators expect the GOP to take control of the Senate by at least a seat.

These are not easy decisions. Florida and Texas are big, expensive states with lots of media markets. Playing for these seats requires big investments, and money does not grow on trees. I am not arguing that anyone should shift resources away from Tester to invest in these other races. However, Montana is a relatively cheap state to run a race, and fully funding his race is not a particularly tall order. So much campaign fundraising is pure bullshit: making non-competitive races seem competitive to separate well-meaning donors from their money — especially when the GOP candidate is someone Democrats love to hate like Ted Cruz. Therefore, transparency is key. A lot would have to go right to win, but it may be worth a shot.

If you want to help, you can contribute to Debbie Murcasel-Powell HERE, Colin Allred HERE, and Dan Osborn, HERE: