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Stuff You Should Consume - Oct 30, 2022
Welcome to this week’s edition of “Stuff You Should Consume,” — a periodic email for Message Box subscribers with important and interesting political content.
“Inflation Remains the Top Issue for Midterm Voters” by Alvin Gunnion and Sabrina Jacobs, Data for Progress
“The Double-Negative Election” by Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic
If Republicans make only modest gains this fall, it will be a clear warning that the party, as currently defined by Trump’s imprint, faces a hard ceiling on its potential support. But even a small Republican gain would send Democrats an equal warning that concerns about the GOP’s values and commitment to democracy may not be sufficient to deny them the White House in 2024. “If I was advising the Biden administration, I would say this is the No. 1 priority: Fix the fundamentals,” John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University and a co-author of a new book on the 2020 presidential election, The Bitter End, told me. “The biggest priority is inflation, and everything else is secondary.”
“The 2022 Race for the House, in Four Districts, and Four Polls” by Shane Goldmacher and Nate Cohn, New York Times
In a polarized nation where more than 80 percent of House seats are entirely uncompetitive, the swing districts are, almost by definition, the competitive outliers. They are the rare places where Latino residents might vote Republican. Or blue-collar white voters are still winnable for Democrats. Or red-state suburbs could vote blue, or blue-state exurbs could go red.
In all four seats in Kansas, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Mexico, the Democratic candidates were leading overwhelmingly among people who were more concerned with societal issues, garnering roughly 8 in 10 votes among voters who thought issues like abortion, guns and the state of democracy were most important to their vote. Similarly, the Republican candidates each won around 70 percent of the vote of those chiefly focused on the economy.
“Forget Election Day 2022. We’re in for an Election Week” By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman and Alexandra Marquez, NBC News
Indeed, per NBC’s Decision Desk, here’s the percentage of 2020 presidential votes counted by 6:00 a.m. ET the morning after Election Day in these key states:
Bottom line: Brace yourselves for an Election Week, not Election Day.
“Republicans’ Secret Swing-Seat Weapon? Dozens of Rich Nominees” by Austin Ahlman, American Prospect
A Prospect analysis of the 68 competitive House races this cycle—defined as the 50 races FiveThirtyEight deems most competitive, as well as other seats where national party PACs have invested money—indicates that Republicans have substantially padded their financial advantage by recruiting a jaw-dropping number of wealthy nominees. Thirty-six of the 68 Republicans running in competitive races have loaned their campaigns money. And 21 of those 36—nearly a third of the Republican nominees in tight contests—have given their campaigns more than $100,000.