More voters credit Trump (who did nothing) for getting infrastructure done than credit Biden (who did a lot). A ridiculously high percentage of voters think that Biden is responsible for the demise of Roe v Wade. This, and more, according to reputable polls. It's natural to despair at such polling, but the optimist in me says there's huge percentage of voters who haven't been paying attention to politics and there's still plenty of time to educate them with facts.
Biden’s team has been laying the groundwork for the key part of the campaign more thoroughly than any I have ever seen. Money, targeted ads, and an emphasis in the ground game in those states where the election will be decided. But a candidate gets no credit in the polls for preparing the campaign.
Polls in May are only useful to tell you where you need to spend resource in June through October. They are no more preditive than The Farmers’ Amanac.
Trump and his courthouse lobby press conferences (with no questions) can only shore up and motivate his base. Does anyone think appearing briefly to insult anyone he can wins him a single new voter? Hardly.
The stage of the campaign where candidates tout their new goals hasn’t even started. We know Trump’s and the GOP’s: Onward to 1930 and before. Biden will have plans on cutting housing costs, abortion rights, civil rights (across many facets), college debt, and climate, etc. That will differentiate the MAGA grievance campaign from the forward looking Dem campaign.
Remember how desperate the media is to create drama, stir up controversy. They need squabbles and contention and bold narratives to get our eyes and ears. And fill the airtime or column inches. Because that’s what businesses do. So they put their narrative frames around that sort of issue every day.
We all know all this. So let’s use all this to push ourselves to work even harder.
I got a feeling we are in for a wild ride. It's going to take every gettable vote to cinch this, and even then the groundwork has been laid for more of the same Trump bullshit about stolen elections. I hope the lawyers are working out.
But Biden needs to rethink Israel and relanguage his narrative. It is the one item Biden has disappointed me with. With all his major accomplishments it would be hard to lose because he is stuck in old thinking about Israel. Sad.
I think also that Judge Cannon and the appeals court in Georgia may have done us a favor — as soon as Trump is out of the courtroom and and back on the stump, this again becomes a referendum on his behavior. The media will obsessively cover his ramblings about Hannibal Lecter, invasions of mental patients, whale-killing windmills, and voters will be forcibly reminded that he is batshit crazy. For his entire life. Given enough rope, he’ll hang himself.
You write: "Finally, some of the most pro-Biden online Democrats dismiss the polls outright and engage in intellectually dishonest arguments about sample sizes, crosstabs, and an anti-Biden bias in the polls." Why are those arguments intellectually dishonest? Is there an intellectually honest way to critique polls? Thanks!
This actually gets at the crux of the issue- most of the communications, journalism, and political science trained people are the ones “analyzing” these polls and methodology instead of data scientists specializing in behavioral/people analytics.
Yes, very good. But I am pretty frustrated with our own. Maybe inflation is coming down, etc.etc., but on the pods I feel like you guys often don't get that this doesn't help people looking for houses that no one is selling (my kids) or that everyone is charging everyone for everythng. I cannot afford any more substacks, the pollercoaster, FOP, so many good and imp things. This saps my own energy. Which I know is a choice but I sure relate to how people are feeling. And if I cannot afford stuff, people with much less must feel even more left out. On top of that, no matter what we say, R grabbed the "we are better at economis" brand long before T, and how to take it back is no simple thing. But needs be.
I get this, Amy G. I would also like to see both the campaign and for that matter Crooked folks, to go a bit harder on the greedflation/gouging stuff à la Bobs Casey & Reich. There is a piece of the "everything is so expensive" that just is not due to 'normal' inflation, but rather to the corporations using the coattails of the economic strain to just make and keep prices high, with hopes that people forget they are really deliberately inflated by the guys who earn 110million a year. This needs MUCH more press, and the campaign needs to be banging this drum too.
Why is it intellectually dishonest to question the polls? Do you have anyone in particular in mind? I'm asking sincerely. I agree that it is probably more important to see how hard the Dems and the Biden campaign are working to win, but my question remains.
A member of our leadership team at IndiMarin remembers hearing a few years ago that most voters decide if they will vote, and who they will vote for, by September. We've been trying to find a source for this claim (if remembered correctly) and can't. We are interested because, if true, it would be a powerful motivator for volunteers over the summer...many are thinking they will get much more active in the fall. Do you have any insights on this topic of when voters typically make their decision? Thank you!
Dan, what are your thoughts on the recentNew York Times poll that found that 13 percent of 2020 Biden voters who planned to defect from him in 2024 cited his foreign policy and stance on Israel’s war in Gaza as the reason??
Having run a few campaigns, I could not agree more on this: "Running any campaign... is largely about mood management. Keep the staff happy, the volunteers fired up, the donors engaged, the press satiated, and the candidate in a good headspace. Put on a brave face in last place, and fight off complacency while winning." It's all about executing a plan. All sorts of things will try to knock you off your plan. You can adjust your plan some, but in the later phases, you just have to trust you've lined it all up right and then keep a crazy mess of people and noise makers on an even keel. And perhaps sometimes get some luck. But you have to stay even ...
More voters credit Trump (who did nothing) for getting infrastructure done than credit Biden (who did a lot). A ridiculously high percentage of voters think that Biden is responsible for the demise of Roe v Wade. This, and more, according to reputable polls. It's natural to despair at such polling, but the optimist in me says there's huge percentage of voters who haven't been paying attention to politics and there's still plenty of time to educate them with facts.
Biden’s team has been laying the groundwork for the key part of the campaign more thoroughly than any I have ever seen. Money, targeted ads, and an emphasis in the ground game in those states where the election will be decided. But a candidate gets no credit in the polls for preparing the campaign.
Polls in May are only useful to tell you where you need to spend resource in June through October. They are no more preditive than The Farmers’ Amanac.
Trump and his courthouse lobby press conferences (with no questions) can only shore up and motivate his base. Does anyone think appearing briefly to insult anyone he can wins him a single new voter? Hardly.
The stage of the campaign where candidates tout their new goals hasn’t even started. We know Trump’s and the GOP’s: Onward to 1930 and before. Biden will have plans on cutting housing costs, abortion rights, civil rights (across many facets), college debt, and climate, etc. That will differentiate the MAGA grievance campaign from the forward looking Dem campaign.
Remember how desperate the media is to create drama, stir up controversy. They need squabbles and contention and bold narratives to get our eyes and ears. And fill the airtime or column inches. Because that’s what businesses do. So they put their narrative frames around that sort of issue every day.
We all know all this. So let’s use all this to push ourselves to work even harder.
But the polls *are* garbage. The polls had Alsobrooks neck and neck and she won by 13 points - this has been the pattern over the last several years.
I got a feeling we are in for a wild ride. It's going to take every gettable vote to cinch this, and even then the groundwork has been laid for more of the same Trump bullshit about stolen elections. I hope the lawyers are working out.
But Biden needs to rethink Israel and relanguage his narrative. It is the one item Biden has disappointed me with. With all his major accomplishments it would be hard to lose because he is stuck in old thinking about Israel. Sad.
I think also that Judge Cannon and the appeals court in Georgia may have done us a favor — as soon as Trump is out of the courtroom and and back on the stump, this again becomes a referendum on his behavior. The media will obsessively cover his ramblings about Hannibal Lecter, invasions of mental patients, whale-killing windmills, and voters will be forcibly reminded that he is batshit crazy. For his entire life. Given enough rope, he’ll hang himself.
You write: "Finally, some of the most pro-Biden online Democrats dismiss the polls outright and engage in intellectually dishonest arguments about sample sizes, crosstabs, and an anti-Biden bias in the polls." Why are those arguments intellectually dishonest? Is there an intellectually honest way to critique polls? Thanks!
This actually gets at the crux of the issue- most of the communications, journalism, and political science trained people are the ones “analyzing” these polls and methodology instead of data scientists specializing in behavioral/people analytics.
If anything it’s intellectually dishonest to pretend that a poll including 50-100 black people is representative of black voters more generally.
Good insight. Thanks, Dan. Good to hear from an insider who knows the devoted and smart team.
I see the Biden campaign as having a very well orchestrated strategy. From the point of the SOTU speech, they seem to be going @ 100mph.
Hi Dan. I was surprised to see you and John giving so much weight to the Times Poll on PSA the other day. I'm glad to see today's article.
Yes, very good. But I am pretty frustrated with our own. Maybe inflation is coming down, etc.etc., but on the pods I feel like you guys often don't get that this doesn't help people looking for houses that no one is selling (my kids) or that everyone is charging everyone for everythng. I cannot afford any more substacks, the pollercoaster, FOP, so many good and imp things. This saps my own energy. Which I know is a choice but I sure relate to how people are feeling. And if I cannot afford stuff, people with much less must feel even more left out. On top of that, no matter what we say, R grabbed the "we are better at economis" brand long before T, and how to take it back is no simple thing. But needs be.
I get this, Amy G. I would also like to see both the campaign and for that matter Crooked folks, to go a bit harder on the greedflation/gouging stuff à la Bobs Casey & Reich. There is a piece of the "everything is so expensive" that just is not due to 'normal' inflation, but rather to the corporations using the coattails of the economic strain to just make and keep prices high, with hopes that people forget they are really deliberately inflated by the guys who earn 110million a year. This needs MUCH more press, and the campaign needs to be banging this drum too.
Why is it intellectually dishonest to question the polls? Do you have anyone in particular in mind? I'm asking sincerely. I agree that it is probably more important to see how hard the Dems and the Biden campaign are working to win, but my question remains.
A member of our leadership team at IndiMarin remembers hearing a few years ago that most voters decide if they will vote, and who they will vote for, by September. We've been trying to find a source for this claim (if remembered correctly) and can't. We are interested because, if true, it would be a powerful motivator for volunteers over the summer...many are thinking they will get much more active in the fall. Do you have any insights on this topic of when voters typically make their decision? Thank you!
Dan, what are your thoughts on the recentNew York Times poll that found that 13 percent of 2020 Biden voters who planned to defect from him in 2024 cited his foreign policy and stance on Israel’s war in Gaza as the reason??
Having run a few campaigns, I could not agree more on this: "Running any campaign... is largely about mood management. Keep the staff happy, the volunteers fired up, the donors engaged, the press satiated, and the candidate in a good headspace. Put on a brave face in last place, and fight off complacency while winning." It's all about executing a plan. All sorts of things will try to knock you off your plan. You can adjust your plan some, but in the later phases, you just have to trust you've lined it all up right and then keep a crazy mess of people and noise makers on an even keel. And perhaps sometimes get some luck. But you have to stay even ...
It really, truly does not seem like that.