The Case for Optimism for Kamala Harris

How you feel over the final days

Despite minimal evidence, a full-bore effort is underway to make Democrats think Kamala Harris is losing the election. This effort is abetted by preternaturally anxious Democrats expressing their concerns on social media.

I have written a lot recently about the vibe shift in Democrats after Kamala Harris’s nomination. I don’t think the data validates such an extreme shift in emotions. However, I won’t shame anyone for being on edge these last two weeks. The stakes are enormous. Reproductive freedom, health care, democracy, and the planet are on the line in an election that could be decided by the weather in a random suburban Wisconsin county.

Long time readers of this newsletter know that I am not exactly a glass-half-full kinda guy. I tend to hang out on the dark side, but I will resist that temptation. How one feels over the next two weeks is a choice. There is nothing cool or savvy about predicting a loss. More importantly, thanks to you-know-who, I believe that hope is a powerful force. If you want to be hopeful over the next few weeks, I will give you some reasons — borne of data and experience — to justify an optimistic approach.

Before you read another word, let me offer some critical stipulations:

• I am not making a prediction (I’m never doing that again after 2016);

• I truly have no idea what will happen (Neither does anyone else);

• I acknowledge that the polls might have moved slightly in Trump’s direction over the last few weeks; and

• The political environment and the Electoral College favor Trump on paper.

When writing for the Internet, you are incentivized to tell people what they want to hear. I try to resist that temptation, but I have upset many of you over the years with negative takes — especially after the Biden-Trump debate. However, the national political discourse lacks arguments for why Harris will win. So, with those painful caveats in mind, here’s the optimistic case for Kamala Harris.

1. Kamala Harris is Better Liked

Politics isn’t that complicated. You want as many people as possible to like you. This is important because, historically, undecided voters tend to break for the better-liked candidate. On that front, Kamala Harris is succeeding, and Donald Trump is failing. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris's favorability rating is 46.5/47.2. Being about even in favorability is impressive in a highly polarized environment; and just look at the progress she has made since becoming the nominee!

Donald Trump, on the other hand, is quite unpopular. His favorability rating is 43.3/53.4. Being nine points underwater is drowning. Yes, Donald Trump won in 2016 despite profound unpopularity, but he was running against someone who was also unpopular.

2. Harris Has a (Slightly) Easier Path to 270

The Electoral College has a Republican bias. According to the New York Times polling average, five of the seven battleground states are within less than a point and no candidate holds a lead in any state greater than two points.

There is no easy path to 270, but Harris’s is slightly easier. If she wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and the second congressional district of Nebraska, she will get 270 electoral votes and be the next President of the United States.

While polling shows Harris with a decent lead in the Nebraska congressional district, the three Blue Wall states are neck and neck. Sure, Harris leads slightly in those states, but her edge exists more because of the fundamentals than the polls. Here’s why:

• These states have voted Democratic in every recent election except 2016;

• Since 2016, Democrats have won 16 of the 18 statewide elections in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; and

• They all elected strong Democratic governors with robust political operations that can help with turnout and GOTV.

There’s a lot of work to do over the next two weeks. These states are not in the bag, but the Blue Wall path is clearer for Harris than any of Trump’s routes to 270.

3. Trump is Not Closing Strong

There is a reason why Kamala Harris used the debate to invite people to attend or watch a Trump rally. It’s the same reason why Harris is now playing video clips of her opponent at her rallies. Trump is a disaster on the public stage. And he’s getting worse as the election nears. Here’s how Vanity Fair’s Bess Levin described Trump’s campaigning this past weekend:

How did Donald Trump spend one of his last weekends before November 5? Did he drill down on policy, finally explaining to voters how he plans to make childcare affordable? Did he apologize to the various minority groups he’s said should have their heads “examined” for supporting Kamala Harris? Did he cogently and convincingly lay out the case for why he deserves a second term in the White House? Not exactly!

Instead, he talked about the size of a famous golfer’s penis, pretended to be a fast-food worker at a closed McDonald’s, and claimed every single goose in Springfield, Ohio, has gone missing.

I look at a lot of polling, and I haven’t seen any evidence that persuadable voters are particularly interested in the size of Arnold Palmer’s putter. Some of Trump’s antics help him because they grab attention and defang the notion of him as a scary dictator. However, in a campaign this close, every interaction with voters has immense importance and Trump is not maximizing his opportunities to persuade the last remaining group of undecided voters.

4. Harris Runs the Better Field Operation

Kamala Harris has invested a tremendous amount of time and money into building a massive field operation to persuade undecided voters and turn out the base. Just last weekend, Harris campaign volunteers made five million phone calls to voters — five million calls in one weekend!

The Trump campaign has largely outsourced their field operations to Elon Musk and other outside entities. Reports on the efficacy of these outside efforts are not great. Here’s Reuters’s reporting on Musk’s operation:

The political action committee funded by billionaire Elon Musk to help re-elect former U.S. President Donald Trump is struggling in some swing states to meet doorknocking goals and is investigating claims that some canvassers lied about the number of voters they have contacted, according to people involved in the group's efforts.

The difficulties, in pivotal battleground states including Wisconsin and Nevada, come as the group, America PAC, races to enlist voters behind the Republican candidate in the final two weeks before the Nov. 5 election. Four people involved in the group's outreach told Reuters that managers warned canvassers they are missing targets and needed to raise the number of would-be voters they contact.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, the best field strategist in the history of the Democratic Party, runs Harris’s operation. She and her team could make the difference in a very close race.

I don’t know what’s going to happen in these final days. No race has ever been this close. However, if you want to spend the final stretch feeling cautiously optimistic about Kamala Harris becoming the next President of the United States, there are plenty of reasons to do so.