Thanks. I’d like to remind everyone that there’s simply NO NEED to read Nate Silver ruminating about…his gut. Nope. I did it so YOU DON’T HAVE TO. You’re welcome.
Nate Silver is also on Peter Thiel’s payroll. Nate Silver consults for PolyMarket - the online betting site that’s being manipulated to show Trump winning. ( you can Google all this stuff but trust me — I’m not a conspiracy theorist; I’m a 68 year old retired CPA & current grandma! )
Democrats used to be relentlessly optimistic. Evidence? Our theme song was “Happy Days are Here Again”. We believed we could get good things done, and we did. What happened?
When I talk with Trump supporters (a rare event to be sure, but it happens), what I hear is (a) recognition that they have a far right problem but the left has the equivalent (b) belief that Trump doesn’t mean what he says and (c) a wish for a centrist third party.
Just yesterday I had one of these conversations with a Trump supporter who was concerned that Democrats wanted to make guns illegal. I don’t see the Democratic Party arguing for that and said so, but he does.
We agreed that the country is torn apart. We also agreed that the rise of profit-driven social media is part of the problem. I get most of my news from newspapers for a reason: I can reflect on what I read in real time. Does that make a difference? Beats me.
He mentioned he was in his 50s. I just turned 70. He’s worried about the world facing his 15 year old son; I worry about my six grandchildren between the ages of 6 through 10.
Another conservative person I interact with is worried about his 17 year old son in a world where the US defense industry makes money selling weapons to countries involved in increasingly volatile wars.
Neither of us is optimistic, but for different reasons. Why? I’m beginning to believe the answer can be found in the usual place: Follow the money.
I will mail in my ballot today, casting my vote for Harris-Walz. I will also mail my last 40 postcards for Indivisible for this campaign cycle. These 40 GOTV cards will go to people in Arizona and Michigan. I’ve written somewhere between 500 and 1000 over the last six months, and plenty more prior to that for special elections.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Harris will be elected, and that will lead to helping to bring the country back to a place where compromise isn’t a dirty word.
But I’d be more optimistic if social media wasn’t making a lot of money for a lot of amoral people.
An example to consider when ignoring the polls and putting our heads down to work hard the last 2 weeks - look at John Fetterman vs. Dr Oz polling from 2 years ago. Fetterman had a huge lead months out but Dr Oz was leading in the polls the last 1-2 weeks…..but lost by 5 points!!
As an 82-year old white woman, I choose to be quietly and profoundly optimistic about every woman’s (current) rights to:1. Vote; and 2. Keep her choices private. From everyone.
I voted yesterday, I am doing a visibility on Saturday with local Dems same thing next weekend and have committed to doing a shift to make phone calls. I just can’t understand how folks could still be on the fence, makes no sense to me. Maybe I will like making calls….. I hope I do cuz if I like I will do more…..LFG you guys!!!💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
The Harris-Walz campaign has incredible surrogates. Did anyone watch President Obama and Tim Walz yesterday at a GOTV rally in Madison, WI? Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are out there campaigning for VP Harris, Colin Allred in Texas and Ruben Gallego in Arizona. I've watched Liz Cheney with VP Harris at Town Halls in PA, MI, WI. The theme is "Country Over Party". There are more Republicans for Harris out there than we realize, as both Liz Cheney and Olivia Troye have stated. When I get discouraged I think about the 700+ Defense and National Security officials who have supported VP Harris and Tim Walz. Retired General Mark Milley has labelled trump "fascist to the core". Her fundraising is phenomenal. The ground game is the best ever. I do not read mainstream media or watch news. Their reporting is shallow, and in many cases biased. The CNN Town Hall with Anderson Cooper is tonight in Chester Township, PA.
The way i see it: Almost every serious political analyst who is worth his name (people like Dan or Simon Rosenberg) say that they are cautiously optimistic about Harris winning the election, and all for the same reasons. Harris has more money, she has the way superior GOTV operation, she still has room to grow and most importantly she has the most important demographic on her side that might show up in unprecedented numbers: women.
Also, most seasoned analysts seem confident about the rust belt and say that we are more than competitive in every other battleground state. On the other hand, the narrative that Trump could win this election is mostly based on skewed public polling and corrupt betting markets.
Or to quote Simons mantra from the Hopium Chronicles: „With 13 days to go i would much rather be us than them.“
I know this is pure hopium, but I suspect that the polls are just not capturing the effort that team Harris has put in. That GOTV and sweat equity is going to turn this election, combined with some really awful GOP candidates in key places (looking at you, Mark Robinson... self-proclaimed Black Nazi).
As you have always said, it's within the margin of EFFORT. Let's go!
In NC- working hard to preserve Democratic ideals. And, after a month of Canvassing, I can tell you with certainty Josh Stein will be our next Governor of this old North State of the Carolinas! Mo Green will defeat Morrow. Blue Wave here is coming!
Fear Not. As a Black American- this a fight we have known for a long time. None of this is new- just in a different form. As I Canvass in NC where I currently live I bring along the following folks in my heart- my parents who grew up during Jim Crow and are now 90, memory of Fannie Lou Hamer, Bob Moses (voting rights leader), Rev James Reeb, MLK, Septima Clark; Jo”Joan Trumpauer Mulholland (white freedom rider); Goodman, Chaney, Schwerner. YouTube is great for these documentaries. Whenever I need fear to subside- I think of these heroes. Joan, 83 years young is still going strong fighting the good fight. We all must do the same!!
As an inlaw is a Project 25 author, have been living in fear, for a long time, even afraid to vote, in DC, re trump's repeating that he's going after the enemies from within. If his threats can scare an educated, seasoned person, from voting, where we joke that in DC, our votes don't count, can imagine how many trump is scaring off from voting. This Pfeiffer column needs to be posted everywhere. First time in months have felt hopeful. We all deserve this.
So glad to get some Hopium before going out to canvass again in metro ATL this morning. It’s easy to get discouraged. Simon and James Carville’s NY Times article this morning were just what I needed!
Indeed! The phenomenal leadership here in NC with the phenomenal Anderson Clayton is leading us to victory- Harris will take NC. Josh Stein WILL be our next Governor!!! I literally see no Mark Robinson signs anymore! Anderson completed 30 colleges in 30 days with her team. Our team has knocked on 900,000 doors (I did 75). We are doing this. I will put in as much time now as needed- carrying folks to the polls, whatever it takes! And after? Will work with Michelle Hornish to turn this state completely blue.
Also a sign of having spent way too much time putting together powerpoint presentations. Thank god there aren't bullet-stars in Substack comments. And if there are, don't tell me.
Dan, thank you for this! I noticed my mental health was taking a toll yesterday with all the negativity and took off the socials like fb, threads and IG from my phone for the next two weeks. I needed this today. side note: I’m knocking on doors in NV saturday near Incline Village / Reno reading this, join! They need our help! (I was signed up for Reno but they asked me to go to IV for their needs.. and my location)
We are doing the work to win. Whatever is going to happen will happen, so we might as well feel optimistic while doing the work. I personally feel more motivated when I think of victory vs all the ways things could go wrong. As Heather Cox Richardson and Jess Craven have said, this is more than a campaign, it's a movement.
TLDR: it's looking good. Much better than the polls suggest. Lots of quiet Harris supporters don't speak up or put up signs because, you know, guns. I'm observing the same thing in my rural ME district. With our single swing vote, we could play the same role as NE-2.
Be thankful for private ballots. A pro-gun, right-wing, extremist culture threatens people at the margins and likely tames many peoples' visible support for the Harris/Walz ticket. It doesn't take a large number of aggressive people to sow fear.
Thanks. I’d like to remind everyone that there’s simply NO NEED to read Nate Silver ruminating about…his gut. Nope. I did it so YOU DON’T HAVE TO. You’re welcome.
Nate Silver is also on Peter Thiel’s payroll. Nate Silver consults for PolyMarket - the online betting site that’s being manipulated to show Trump winning. ( you can Google all this stuff but trust me — I’m not a conspiracy theorist; I’m a 68 year old retired CPA & current grandma! )
Nate Silver is a turncoat. Ignore him.
Democrats used to be relentlessly optimistic. Evidence? Our theme song was “Happy Days are Here Again”. We believed we could get good things done, and we did. What happened?
When I talk with Trump supporters (a rare event to be sure, but it happens), what I hear is (a) recognition that they have a far right problem but the left has the equivalent (b) belief that Trump doesn’t mean what he says and (c) a wish for a centrist third party.
Just yesterday I had one of these conversations with a Trump supporter who was concerned that Democrats wanted to make guns illegal. I don’t see the Democratic Party arguing for that and said so, but he does.
We agreed that the country is torn apart. We also agreed that the rise of profit-driven social media is part of the problem. I get most of my news from newspapers for a reason: I can reflect on what I read in real time. Does that make a difference? Beats me.
He mentioned he was in his 50s. I just turned 70. He’s worried about the world facing his 15 year old son; I worry about my six grandchildren between the ages of 6 through 10.
Another conservative person I interact with is worried about his 17 year old son in a world where the US defense industry makes money selling weapons to countries involved in increasingly volatile wars.
Neither of us is optimistic, but for different reasons. Why? I’m beginning to believe the answer can be found in the usual place: Follow the money.
I will mail in my ballot today, casting my vote for Harris-Walz. I will also mail my last 40 postcards for Indivisible for this campaign cycle. These 40 GOTV cards will go to people in Arizona and Michigan. I’ve written somewhere between 500 and 1000 over the last six months, and plenty more prior to that for special elections.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Harris will be elected, and that will lead to helping to bring the country back to a place where compromise isn’t a dirty word.
But I’d be more optimistic if social media wasn’t making a lot of money for a lot of amoral people.
Any Trump voter who is wishing for a third party should be encouraged to vote for one this cycle. ;-)
An example to consider when ignoring the polls and putting our heads down to work hard the last 2 weeks - look at John Fetterman vs. Dr Oz polling from 2 years ago. Fetterman had a huge lead months out but Dr Oz was leading in the polls the last 1-2 weeks…..but lost by 5 points!!
Good point!!!
This aligns with the notes I've seen from smart data people that at this stage, polling isn't really telling us anything meaningful.
As an 82-year old white woman, I choose to be quietly and profoundly optimistic about every woman’s (current) rights to:1. Vote; and 2. Keep her choices private. From everyone.
I voted yesterday, I am doing a visibility on Saturday with local Dems same thing next weekend and have committed to doing a shift to make phone calls. I just can’t understand how folks could still be on the fence, makes no sense to me. Maybe I will like making calls….. I hope I do cuz if I like I will do more…..LFG you guys!!!💙💙💙💙🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
The Harris-Walz campaign has incredible surrogates. Did anyone watch President Obama and Tim Walz yesterday at a GOTV rally in Madison, WI? Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are out there campaigning for VP Harris, Colin Allred in Texas and Ruben Gallego in Arizona. I've watched Liz Cheney with VP Harris at Town Halls in PA, MI, WI. The theme is "Country Over Party". There are more Republicans for Harris out there than we realize, as both Liz Cheney and Olivia Troye have stated. When I get discouraged I think about the 700+ Defense and National Security officials who have supported VP Harris and Tim Walz. Retired General Mark Milley has labelled trump "fascist to the core". Her fundraising is phenomenal. The ground game is the best ever. I do not read mainstream media or watch news. Their reporting is shallow, and in many cases biased. The CNN Town Hall with Anderson Cooper is tonight in Chester Township, PA.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/pennsylvania-harris-cnn-town-hall/index.html
The way i see it: Almost every serious political analyst who is worth his name (people like Dan or Simon Rosenberg) say that they are cautiously optimistic about Harris winning the election, and all for the same reasons. Harris has more money, she has the way superior GOTV operation, she still has room to grow and most importantly she has the most important demographic on her side that might show up in unprecedented numbers: women.
Also, most seasoned analysts seem confident about the rust belt and say that we are more than competitive in every other battleground state. On the other hand, the narrative that Trump could win this election is mostly based on skewed public polling and corrupt betting markets.
Or to quote Simons mantra from the Hopium Chronicles: „With 13 days to go i would much rather be us than them.“
Polls of 850 self selected voters in a state of 5 or 10 Million or more are statistically garbage when they predict results of 1,2,or 3% either way!
I know this is pure hopium, but I suspect that the polls are just not capturing the effort that team Harris has put in. That GOTV and sweat equity is going to turn this election, combined with some really awful GOP candidates in key places (looking at you, Mark Robinson... self-proclaimed Black Nazi).
As you have always said, it's within the margin of EFFORT. Let's go!
In NC- working hard to preserve Democratic ideals. And, after a month of Canvassing, I can tell you with certainty Josh Stein will be our next Governor of this old North State of the Carolinas! Mo Green will defeat Morrow. Blue Wave here is coming!
Thanks for your work, and maybe it's not pure hopium. It's more like the hope version of a Narcan, a bit of hopium with some tylenol for the soul. ;-)
Thank you — if only I'd gotten this before I tried falling asleep last night.
I’m also not sleeping and am in a constant state of panic. Our bodies were not made for Trump and the current GOP. It’s hard to turn it off.
no kidding - made the mistake of reading 538 likely winner while talking with my husband. Ugh.
Fear Not. As a Black American- this a fight we have known for a long time. None of this is new- just in a different form. As I Canvass in NC where I currently live I bring along the following folks in my heart- my parents who grew up during Jim Crow and are now 90, memory of Fannie Lou Hamer, Bob Moses (voting rights leader), Rev James Reeb, MLK, Septima Clark; Jo”Joan Trumpauer Mulholland (white freedom rider); Goodman, Chaney, Schwerner. YouTube is great for these documentaries. Whenever I need fear to subside- I think of these heroes. Joan, 83 years young is still going strong fighting the good fight. We all must do the same!!
Yes! And thank you!☺️
As an inlaw is a Project 25 author, have been living in fear, for a long time, even afraid to vote, in DC, re trump's repeating that he's going after the enemies from within. If his threats can scare an educated, seasoned person, from voting, where we joke that in DC, our votes don't count, can imagine how many trump is scaring off from voting. This Pfeiffer column needs to be posted everywhere. First time in months have felt hopeful. We all deserve this.
So glad to get some Hopium before going out to canvass again in metro ATL this morning. It’s easy to get discouraged. Simon and James Carville’s NY Times article this morning were just what I needed!
Love it! Enjoy and thank you ! I’m phone banking w Hopium this week.
Agreed!
I am ignoring the polls especially w all the GOP junk poll dumping.
ACTION. I’m phone banking A LOT these last weeks.
Re-read Dan's 4th point: Harris has a better field organization.
That's us folks.
The time it takes to read about polls is time not making calls, sending texts, or knocking doors.
Reading polls makes you feel anxious; taking action makes you feel much much better.
https://go.kamalaharris.com/?utm_source=hfp_w_kh_menu
Indeed! The phenomenal leadership here in NC with the phenomenal Anderson Clayton is leading us to victory- Harris will take NC. Josh Stein WILL be our next Governor!!! I literally see no Mark Robinson signs anymore! Anderson completed 30 colleges in 30 days with her team. Our team has knocked on 900,000 doors (I did 75). We are doing this. I will put in as much time now as needed- carrying folks to the polls, whatever it takes! And after? Will work with Michelle Hornish to turn this state completely blue.
Also a sign of having spent way too much time putting together powerpoint presentations. Thank god there aren't bullet-stars in Substack comments. And if there are, don't tell me.
Dan, thank you for this! I noticed my mental health was taking a toll yesterday with all the negativity and took off the socials like fb, threads and IG from my phone for the next two weeks. I needed this today. side note: I’m knocking on doors in NV saturday near Incline Village / Reno reading this, join! They need our help! (I was signed up for Reno but they asked me to go to IV for their needs.. and my location)
*anyone reading this
Thaose are fun memories! I live in Truckee :)
We are doing the work to win. Whatever is going to happen will happen, so we might as well feel optimistic while doing the work. I personally feel more motivated when I think of victory vs all the ways things could go wrong. As Heather Cox Richardson and Jess Craven have said, this is more than a campaign, it's a movement.
Check out this video if you need some hope. A retired poly sci prof shares the report from a canvasser in a swing district in PA.
https://youtu.be/zsS9W4_ykuY?si=-RdOPJdIiiOX22nD
TLDR: it's looking good. Much better than the polls suggest. Lots of quiet Harris supporters don't speak up or put up signs because, you know, guns. I'm observing the same thing in my rural ME district. With our single swing vote, we could play the same role as NE-2.
Be thankful for private ballots. A pro-gun, right-wing, extremist culture threatens people at the margins and likely tames many peoples' visible support for the Harris/Walz ticket. It doesn't take a large number of aggressive people to sow fear.