I have to admit my biggest fear in 2024 is the powder keg you describe. In 2022 there were estimated to be over 60 far right militia groups in the US, and while the number has been declining over the years, it only takes one to light the fuse. Since Jan 6th there has been a chilling effect to some degree, but we also have to remember that after Charlottesville, the alt right didn’t disappear. They stepped back, reorganized and rebranded; we should assume that’s been happening, and one of the country’s pre-eminent Neo-Nazis, Nick Fuentes, had dinner with Trump in late 2022. With Trump consciously echoing Hitler and name checking Mein Kampf, we must remember that the Nazis did not emerge as a world power capable of starting a world war. We liberals can be very hand-wringy about Hitler comparisons, but it would be irresponsible to ignore the clear parallels to the EARLY Nazi party.
But, one of many things that gives me hope is seeing how engaged my local electorate has been ever since Roe was overturned. We even managed to pressure DeWine into vetoing a draconian anti-trans bill. I’m a “non college-educated white voter” in Ohio. I’m as lefty SJW as it gets, Democracy is my biggest concern for 2024, and the January 6th hearings and Biden’s speech denouncing MAGA Republicans are among the most striking moments in my young political life. I wasn’t activated as a voter until 2016, like a lot of people. I’m not reflected in the polls, and I know I’m not alone. So I think in addition to the statistical majority who oppose Trump, there are many more who simply aren’t being reflected in the data. I do think more people care about this than we realize.
Republicans are resorting to violence because they are utterly desperate. They cannot win elections anymore and are now the party of abortion extremism, treason and Putin. That they'll do anything to stay in power is a sign of weakness, not strength. It's our job over the next 11 months to stay calm and do the work to keep MAGA from regaining power. If Dan's post makes you anxious I suggest you sign up for a volunteer shift to help Tom Keen in FL HD-35 (Jan 16 special election) and/or Tom Suozzi in NY-3 (special election Feb 13). Less worry, more work!
Yesterday I read that 25% of Americans think the FBI caused January 6. WTAF??!! How in the world did we get here? Did they not see what I saw - a candidate who lost inciting a mob to overthrow the government.
I keep thinking of trying to write a piece entitled "our pickled brains." We got here because 2-3 generations of our citizens have been "educated" by television and now the internet. I tried in a past life (before the internet!) to figure out how to make the case that the hours of television watching were affecting and altering the development of the human being. The average of seven hours a day means that children and adults have lost the time and opportunity for the natural development of the social, emotional and moral dimensions at every single stage of life. It's a difficult argument to make and believe it or not there is almost no scientific research on the effects of television on the person. I think we see the effect when we have a large population that can't see through the propaganda they are being fed.
I am going to (slightly) challenge you here. I don’t think this is a new phenomenon and it’s not just because of TV and the Internet. William Randolph Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer were part of establishing the Fox News business model more than 120 years ago of feeding into fears and exploiting those fears with lies and sensationalism. I will grant you that it happens faster now but I sometimes think humans can be lazy. Confirmation bias tends to be the default. Information literacy is not innate.
Sure that's true. But we don't know much about how the images and story lines impact child development. I said it's a difficult argument and I haven't ever figured out how to write about it even at book length. agreed that information literacy is not innate, and we haven't decided to teach media literacy -except very rarely.
While we stay vigilant for more Jan 6-style violence, it is also important to recall the many small (and not so small), dispersed acts of violence and intimidation in Trump's name that occurred throughout 2016 and his term in office. Much of it directed at the groups Trump routinely demonizes, particularly brown-skinned and Asian immigrants. This year, we should expect LGBTQ Americans - particularly trans Americans - to be to be targeted even more than they have been in the past.
In addition to the direct physical harm and stress this causes, it also deters people from participating in democracy. Hell, here in Oregon, no matter who you are, you think twice about putting a Dem bumper sticker on your car if you're going to drive outside of a Blue bubble. I hope Biden says something about that type of political violence against democracy too.
I appreciate you laying this out so well. I hope Joe can make the case and that his surrogates go all in. I lived through Reagan and Bush and I've never been so scared.
Is it just me or is holding rallies on the anniversary of Jan 6th not entirely without risk for Trump? Obviously on the small margins and more relevant for a general. But it’s a pretty non ambiguous signal to send.
Raskin is one of those guys who reminds you that not all elected officials are frauds. A true inspiration.
Whether or not the DNC or the Senate does a good job of capitalizing on this report, it’s something incredibly useful to people on the ground. Nobody likes corrupt politicians, but Trump cleverly convinces his evangelists that he’s corrupt for the right reasons (somehow). “Making millions from foreign governments while in office” is a one sentence talking point that can start a good conversation, and most MAGA faithful don’t have a programmed response to it. Yet.
I am not sure anyone in MAGA land exerts much control over the people who actually form the mobs. The rhetoric of many elected GOP officials—at all levels—brings out the mob and gins up violence, but only Trump could call them off once it starts. I am sure the Biden team has plans for rapid response, but what about state capitols?
Will the punishments handed down from federal courts dissuade potential rioters? I am glad that the DOJ was aggressive in prosecuting. I hope it’s enough.
Question: how did MAGA Mike escape being sued by Dominion? He defamed them on both radio and podcasts. For that matter, we ought to dig up a relative of Hugo Chavez to sue him.
I wonder how close we are to a real split in the GOP, with some mainstream figures starting a new party? That would be good.
I'm hopeful that we can continue to enact meaningful reforms—especially here in Colorado. We have a couple of ballot measures on the way that will change our system to ranked choice + top 4 runoff, similar to the one in Alaska.
I'm going to get involved in the Democratic Party again to demand that we support these reforms. We can't afford to be hypocritical to hold onto our current blue trifecfa. The leadership of both parties would love to be caucus only (which no one attends). They also want to retain the vacancy committees. Even if we don't go to a special election system, the position should at least be open in the next available election to finish the term.
We have made tremendous progress in Colorado, much of it since 2016:
Independent redistricting commission (passed by a bipartisan legislature and ballot measure) that kept communities together, unaffiliated voters can vote in party primaries (ballot measure), and switch from presidential caucus to primary (bipartisan legislature), automatic voter registration (SOS initiated), universal VBM (legislature + ballot), public elections fund in Denver, and ranked choice voting in several cities and more on the way.
Journalism is thriving here with Colorado Community Media local newspapers and the now non-profit Colorado Sun. Best political reporting anywhere and probably the best columnist in America (Mike Littwin).
Lauren Boebert is out because she can't win a primary in CO-4. Ken Buck is leaving so that's two Freedom Caucus chaos agents gone. Adam Frisch still has a good shot regardless. Lamborn is also leaving. Lamborn was under performing and the recent Colorado Springs Mayoral election shows that CO-05 could be flippable.
Colorado is purple and I like it that way. The Republicans are going off the rails and without challenge, the Democratic Party is too prone to group think. We have a great new party chair who has adopted Ben Wikkler's strategy, but we can always do better.
A few things. 1.) I did not understand the role of those birds in the ad. 2.) After he said "the Vice Pres and I have fought for" he went on to speak in "I" pronouns; should then be "we" and this I think imp. (more than birds yes. 3) I like this ad but I do hope the ads focus upon more than democracy; upon his very admin.'s very real achievements. 4) Dan you say "Americans believe that..." many times here. But aren't these just polls? I think people do not tell the truth in their replies to polls. Just as many R's in gov. do not say what they really think about Tr. I think people report their beliefs to justify their coming vote; they have to find a way to vote for him without the shame and embarassment they know they deserve, at least many do. This brings up so much more for me but will stop there. Except: violence yes, it is not only coming it is already here. Maybe much more on the horizon. What do people think we who are not violent should do? Should we buy guns? I cannot fathom.
Trump’s unhinged tweets alone will doom him, and the most likely paths of his deep dive into oblivion being several: Supreme Court allows states to remove Trump from ballot; Supreme Court affirms Trump is not immune from prosecution and conviction follows in either or both federal cases; Biden wins; Dems take House and the Senate, and impeachment and conviction follow based on facts at that time. The precedent is set for followers who turn to insurrection. As Trump goes, so goes Mike Johnson.
I've been thinking about the role of Steve Bannon in spreading the lies -It's four hours a day, right !? He's dangerous. What means are there to shut him down? Hoping someone is working on this.
I guess my question is, the question of democracy does not poll well. It doesn’t seem as though that is the issue that is going to get people out to vote. But, as always, it’s going to be a turnout game (from here in good old battleground PA...those doors are waiting). Soooo...what is the message?? What do we say to the soft Ds / Is / persuable Rs at the door??
It's a big effort, coordinated with a lot of good people who want Biden/Harris to win and help America stay strong.
But Dan, you know as much as your insights are truly valuable and worthy of broader attentions, I have to remind us that we are not really addressing our basic problem(s), guaranteeing even a Biden/Harris victory won't actually change anything.
Instead of "We promise not to blow up the country", how about "We promise to take money out of politics"?
How about 1 singular reform that we actually need?
"We promise to enshrine effective anti-corruption measures in all three branches."
Campaign on ONE REAL REFORM for fucks sake.
"We promise to address the power of unlimited collection of capital wealth in transnational organizations."
Just one.
But "We promise we won't blow up the country" is too minimal to believe in anymore. It has to be backed up with something we CAN believe in.
I have to admit my biggest fear in 2024 is the powder keg you describe. In 2022 there were estimated to be over 60 far right militia groups in the US, and while the number has been declining over the years, it only takes one to light the fuse. Since Jan 6th there has been a chilling effect to some degree, but we also have to remember that after Charlottesville, the alt right didn’t disappear. They stepped back, reorganized and rebranded; we should assume that’s been happening, and one of the country’s pre-eminent Neo-Nazis, Nick Fuentes, had dinner with Trump in late 2022. With Trump consciously echoing Hitler and name checking Mein Kampf, we must remember that the Nazis did not emerge as a world power capable of starting a world war. We liberals can be very hand-wringy about Hitler comparisons, but it would be irresponsible to ignore the clear parallels to the EARLY Nazi party.
But, one of many things that gives me hope is seeing how engaged my local electorate has been ever since Roe was overturned. We even managed to pressure DeWine into vetoing a draconian anti-trans bill. I’m a “non college-educated white voter” in Ohio. I’m as lefty SJW as it gets, Democracy is my biggest concern for 2024, and the January 6th hearings and Biden’s speech denouncing MAGA Republicans are among the most striking moments in my young political life. I wasn’t activated as a voter until 2016, like a lot of people. I’m not reflected in the polls, and I know I’m not alone. So I think in addition to the statistical majority who oppose Trump, there are many more who simply aren’t being reflected in the data. I do think more people care about this than we realize.
Republicans are resorting to violence because they are utterly desperate. They cannot win elections anymore and are now the party of abortion extremism, treason and Putin. That they'll do anything to stay in power is a sign of weakness, not strength. It's our job over the next 11 months to stay calm and do the work to keep MAGA from regaining power. If Dan's post makes you anxious I suggest you sign up for a volunteer shift to help Tom Keen in FL HD-35 (Jan 16 special election) and/or Tom Suozzi in NY-3 (special election Feb 13). Less worry, more work!
Yesterday I read that 25% of Americans think the FBI caused January 6. WTAF??!! How in the world did we get here? Did they not see what I saw - a candidate who lost inciting a mob to overthrow the government.
I keep thinking of trying to write a piece entitled "our pickled brains." We got here because 2-3 generations of our citizens have been "educated" by television and now the internet. I tried in a past life (before the internet!) to figure out how to make the case that the hours of television watching were affecting and altering the development of the human being. The average of seven hours a day means that children and adults have lost the time and opportunity for the natural development of the social, emotional and moral dimensions at every single stage of life. It's a difficult argument to make and believe it or not there is almost no scientific research on the effects of television on the person. I think we see the effect when we have a large population that can't see through the propaganda they are being fed.
I am going to (slightly) challenge you here. I don’t think this is a new phenomenon and it’s not just because of TV and the Internet. William Randolph Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer were part of establishing the Fox News business model more than 120 years ago of feeding into fears and exploiting those fears with lies and sensationalism. I will grant you that it happens faster now but I sometimes think humans can be lazy. Confirmation bias tends to be the default. Information literacy is not innate.
Sure that's true. But we don't know much about how the images and story lines impact child development. I said it's a difficult argument and I haven't ever figured out how to write about it even at book length. agreed that information literacy is not innate, and we haven't decided to teach media literacy -except very rarely.
While we stay vigilant for more Jan 6-style violence, it is also important to recall the many small (and not so small), dispersed acts of violence and intimidation in Trump's name that occurred throughout 2016 and his term in office. Much of it directed at the groups Trump routinely demonizes, particularly brown-skinned and Asian immigrants. This year, we should expect LGBTQ Americans - particularly trans Americans - to be to be targeted even more than they have been in the past.
In addition to the direct physical harm and stress this causes, it also deters people from participating in democracy. Hell, here in Oregon, no matter who you are, you think twice about putting a Dem bumper sticker on your car if you're going to drive outside of a Blue bubble. I hope Biden says something about that type of political violence against democracy too.
I appreciate you laying this out so well. I hope Joe can make the case and that his surrogates go all in. I lived through Reagan and Bush and I've never been so scared.
Is it just me or is holding rallies on the anniversary of Jan 6th not entirely without risk for Trump? Obviously on the small margins and more relevant for a general. But it’s a pretty non ambiguous signal to send.
Raskin is one of those guys who reminds you that not all elected officials are frauds. A true inspiration.
Whether or not the DNC or the Senate does a good job of capitalizing on this report, it’s something incredibly useful to people on the ground. Nobody likes corrupt politicians, but Trump cleverly convinces his evangelists that he’s corrupt for the right reasons (somehow). “Making millions from foreign governments while in office” is a one sentence talking point that can start a good conversation, and most MAGA faithful don’t have a programmed response to it. Yet.
I am not sure anyone in MAGA land exerts much control over the people who actually form the mobs. The rhetoric of many elected GOP officials—at all levels—brings out the mob and gins up violence, but only Trump could call them off once it starts. I am sure the Biden team has plans for rapid response, but what about state capitols?
Will the punishments handed down from federal courts dissuade potential rioters? I am glad that the DOJ was aggressive in prosecuting. I hope it’s enough.
Question: how did MAGA Mike escape being sued by Dominion? He defamed them on both radio and podcasts. For that matter, we ought to dig up a relative of Hugo Chavez to sue him.
I wonder how close we are to a real split in the GOP, with some mainstream figures starting a new party? That would be good.
Colorado is looking rosier!
I'm hopeful that we can continue to enact meaningful reforms—especially here in Colorado. We have a couple of ballot measures on the way that will change our system to ranked choice + top 4 runoff, similar to the one in Alaska.
I'm going to get involved in the Democratic Party again to demand that we support these reforms. We can't afford to be hypocritical to hold onto our current blue trifecfa. The leadership of both parties would love to be caucus only (which no one attends). They also want to retain the vacancy committees. Even if we don't go to a special election system, the position should at least be open in the next available election to finish the term.
We have made tremendous progress in Colorado, much of it since 2016:
Independent redistricting commission (passed by a bipartisan legislature and ballot measure) that kept communities together, unaffiliated voters can vote in party primaries (ballot measure), and switch from presidential caucus to primary (bipartisan legislature), automatic voter registration (SOS initiated), universal VBM (legislature + ballot), public elections fund in Denver, and ranked choice voting in several cities and more on the way.
Journalism is thriving here with Colorado Community Media local newspapers and the now non-profit Colorado Sun. Best political reporting anywhere and probably the best columnist in America (Mike Littwin).
Lauren Boebert is out because she can't win a primary in CO-4. Ken Buck is leaving so that's two Freedom Caucus chaos agents gone. Adam Frisch still has a good shot regardless. Lamborn is also leaving. Lamborn was under performing and the recent Colorado Springs Mayoral election shows that CO-05 could be flippable.
Colorado is purple and I like it that way. The Republicans are going off the rails and without challenge, the Democratic Party is too prone to group think. We have a great new party chair who has adopted Ben Wikkler's strategy, but we can always do better.
A few things. 1.) I did not understand the role of those birds in the ad. 2.) After he said "the Vice Pres and I have fought for" he went on to speak in "I" pronouns; should then be "we" and this I think imp. (more than birds yes. 3) I like this ad but I do hope the ads focus upon more than democracy; upon his very admin.'s very real achievements. 4) Dan you say "Americans believe that..." many times here. But aren't these just polls? I think people do not tell the truth in their replies to polls. Just as many R's in gov. do not say what they really think about Tr. I think people report their beliefs to justify their coming vote; they have to find a way to vote for him without the shame and embarassment they know they deserve, at least many do. This brings up so much more for me but will stop there. Except: violence yes, it is not only coming it is already here. Maybe much more on the horizon. What do people think we who are not violent should do? Should we buy guns? I cannot fathom.
Agree about Polls overrated. That was only 1,000 people and how were they reached, only landline? Mobile call, email or text?
Trump’s unhinged tweets alone will doom him, and the most likely paths of his deep dive into oblivion being several: Supreme Court allows states to remove Trump from ballot; Supreme Court affirms Trump is not immune from prosecution and conviction follows in either or both federal cases; Biden wins; Dems take House and the Senate, and impeachment and conviction follow based on facts at that time. The precedent is set for followers who turn to insurrection. As Trump goes, so goes Mike Johnson.
I've been thinking about the role of Steve Bannon in spreading the lies -It's four hours a day, right !? He's dangerous. What means are there to shut him down? Hoping someone is working on this.
I guess my question is, the question of democracy does not poll well. It doesn’t seem as though that is the issue that is going to get people out to vote. But, as always, it’s going to be a turnout game (from here in good old battleground PA...those doors are waiting). Soooo...what is the message?? What do we say to the soft Ds / Is / persuable Rs at the door??
It's a big effort, coordinated with a lot of good people who want Biden/Harris to win and help America stay strong.
But Dan, you know as much as your insights are truly valuable and worthy of broader attentions, I have to remind us that we are not really addressing our basic problem(s), guaranteeing even a Biden/Harris victory won't actually change anything.
Instead of "We promise not to blow up the country", how about "We promise to take money out of politics"?
How about 1 singular reform that we actually need?
"We promise to enshrine effective anti-corruption measures in all three branches."
Campaign on ONE REAL REFORM for fucks sake.
"We promise to address the power of unlimited collection of capital wealth in transnational organizations."
Just one.
But "We promise we won't blow up the country" is too minimal to believe in anymore. It has to be backed up with something we CAN believe in.