The GOP is Setting a TikTok Trap
Politics of TikTok are very complicated - especially for Democrats
Yesterday, the CEO of TikTok testified before the U.S. House. Like every previous example of tech titans appearing before Congress, this hearing was a reminder that we are not sending our best to Washington. Once again, many of the members demonstrated the tech-savvy of your grandparents (or parents) trying to navigate their phones after the latest IOS update. Frankly, the CEO of TikTok did not fare much better.
The hearing occurred amidst an ongoing and vituperative debate about the future and safety of the Chinese-owned company. As you certainly know, TikTok is the most popular and fastest-growing app in the world; and its parent company is based in China with close ties to the government. There is little specific evidence that the Chinese government has either accessed U.S. user data or used the platform’s algorithm to influence U.S politics. Still, there is a generalized, common-sense view that 100 million Americans running around on a Chinese platform presents some sort of threat.
I am certainly not qualified to evaluate the size or seriousness of the threat posed by TikTok. And the Administration and Congress (for reasons of classification) have not provided the public with sufficient evidence to justify the concern.
If the technological and national security concerns are unclear, the political concerns are obvious. Republicans see an opportunity to set a trap for President Biden. The politics of TikTok are complicated — especially for Democrats.
Pushing a TikTok ban is a relative freebie for the Republicans. Only Biden could enact a ban, so they pressure the President without having to be accountable for the outcome.
The Republicans see the issue as a win-win for them. If Biden doesn’t ban TikTok, they can paint him as soft on China. If Biden does ban TikTok, he risks alienating the young voters who put him over the top in 2020.
China Politics
Dating back to the 2020 campaign, the Republicans tried to stick President Biden in China’s pocket. This hysterically xenophobic ad from the Trump campaign summarizes the Republicans’ ridiculous case.
It’s worth noting that Trump and all of these Republicans are completely full of shit on China. Trump had a Chinese bank account and you haven’t heard a peep from Republicans about it.
But that won’t stop Republicans from seizing on China as a way to attack Joe Biden. According to Gallup, which has been tracking Americans’ opinions of China for more than 40 years:
A record-low 15% of Americans view China favorably, marking a five-percentage-point, one-year decline in this rating, which Gallup has measured since 1979. China has been gradually falling in the U.S. public’s esteem in recent years and is down a total of 38 points since 2018. More than eight in 10 U.S. adults have a negative opinion of China, including 45% who view it very unfavorably and 39% mostly unfavorably.
To put that number in perspective, 9% of Americans have a favorable view of Russia (All of them watch Tucker Carlson). Two-thirds of Americans view China as a “critical threat.”
A Washington Post poll found that 71% of Americans are concerned that TikTok is based in China. Additionally, 65% think TikTok is collecting data on U.S. citizens on behalf of the Chinese government and 56% believe TikTok is letting the Chinese government control the content seen by U.S. users.
If Americans see China as a threat and believe TikTok is doing harm on behalf of the Chinese government, the politics of banning TikTok should be simple, right?
Not so fast.
TikTok’s Base is the Democratic Base
Here’s the challenge for Democrats on TikTok: Quinnipiac University recently polled Americans about a potential ban on foreign technologies like TikTok — 49% support such a ban, while 42% oppose it. Independents also support a ban by a margin of 50-43. A majority of Democrats, on the other hand, oppose a ban (51-39). And 63% of voters 18-34 oppose a ban.
These younger voters are core to the present and future of the Democratic Party. They powered Joe Biden’s win in 2020 and will be critical in 2024. According to the Pew Validated Voter study, Biden won voters under 30 by 24 points.
The Washington Post poll also found —unsurprisingly — that TikTok users were more likely to oppose a ban. Only 17% of daily TikTok users would support a ban on the app. A sizable portion of TikTok’s younger user base profiles as Democrats and potential Biden voters.
Biden’s Third Way
Banning and not banning TikTok both have political downsides, which is why Biden’s current approach is the best one politically. The Biden Administration reportedly told TikTok’s parent company to sell the platform or face a ban. To strengthen its hand, the White House indicated its support for legislation giving it the authority to enact a ban. This was the approach attempted by the Trump administration. That effort failed due to the incompetent yahoos charged with implementing it.
Hopefully, it works this time around. Otherwise, the President will be forced into a difficult and politically painful decision.
Dan - Unfortunately, not everything is about politics. TikTok does represent a significant danger to the United States and the right decision, if not the decision most politically palatable, is to ban the app. The data that TikTok collects and the messaging that its algorithms can serve to its user base can clearly be used by a hostile government to target, track, and surveil individual users or to spread misinformation, fan dissension, and generally sow chaos. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the CCP has banned TikTok in all of China (including Hong Kong & Macau). TikTok is a Chinese company and is entirely beholden to the CCP. TikTok can promise that they will protect the United States and western users from China's predations, but that promise will only be honored in the absence of Chinese demands to turn the app into a tool of the Chinese state. Neither TikTok nor Bytedance are able to defy the Chinese state. The app must be sold or banned in the US. There is no other option.
Insofar as the fear mongering around the polls about TikTok bans, I would say that the answer isn't to face the far harsher blowback from GOP attacks of being "soft on China" but to get the ban out of the way sooner rather than later. This polling data is a great example of what happens when a reality is pitted against a hypothetical in a poll question. Obviously the "reality" gets a bump. If you are a TikTok user right now, then you probably are going to tend to say that, all else being equal, you would like to continue using the app. Were the app banned, particularly were the messaging around the reason for banning the app well designed, I suspect that the 'backlash' to the ban would be small and short lived. I live in Hong Kong and the app was very popular when it was banned here. There was a bit of grumbling, but after about a month people had forgotten about it and moved on to other apps. If you are genuinely worried about the blowback at the hustings to a ban then rip the bandaid off well ahead of the election. Ultimately, though, this hyperventilating about the risk to the Democratic Party is just noise being whipped up by TikTok's newest lobbying shop: SKDK.
To be clear, I am not saying that the administration should not first work to ensure that the RESTRICT Act becomes law. Quick passage of a bipartisan law governing how the administration approaches not just TikTok but ALL social media apps is the ideal outcome.
Probably for similar reasons, China has banned Twitter, and Facebook left China purportedly over control and censorship issues (if the report I read about Facebook’s exit was correct).
Distressing as it is for me to realize our Dem politics are heavily influenced by the pique of younger Millennials and Gen Z adults threatened with losing a favorite toy, it seems the best way out is to force a sale to a U. S. corporation.
Seriously, though, very smart people are using Tik Tok to deliver real economic benefit as well as entertainment. The list of brands essentially started on the platform, as well as the companies with stellar marketing campaigns is long and varied. In that way the platform is unique.
Facebook has utility for businesses small and large, but it in no way lends itself to viral marketing. And can anyone imagine a marketing campaign on Twitter? It would be like Bruce Springsteen trying his own version of Jimmy Buffett’s Margaritaville, now a several billion dollar business. What would he call it? Rustagrittyville? I’m a Bruce fan, but he can be a bit of a pessimist.