Abbot in TX might just be blustering and acting out to make people forget about people freezing to death in their homes over the state’s mismanagement of the power grid. But DeSantis seems to be making a bet that Pandemic stupidity will still be the driver in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary in 2024. That seems like a really bad bet. And in the meantime he is painting himself as a heartless murderer a year before his re-election campaign. I live in FL, and viewed up close, DeSantis seems like a smart guy but also a ham-fisted bully with a mean-little-kid temperament, whose political instincts are nearly always wrong. He is busy digging himself a hole and I think he’ll lose the governorship next year. Biden is inviting him down that path.
Honestly... I am not sure I agree on the politics. I am in a swing state and I listened to your pod on Thursday on messaging. I don't think messaging on big policy is resonating because no one locally is talking about anything but COVID. It is all consuming and the only thing they talk about.
It's also not black and white on how people who voted for Biden feel about this. In Georgia, we have 159 counties who mostly run the school systems. Last year, you would have one county virtual next to a neighboring county who had no pandemic rules and you saw their kids having a great school year with learning and homecoming dances and proms on Facebook... and similar COVID outcomes on a per capita county level. It felt like cognitive dissonance sometimes. It is hard for people living their day-to-day lives to let that feeling from last year go, even if Delta changes that. The result is not that people think the Republican counties are right, but everyone in government, regardless of both parties, is wrong. I think focusing on DeSantis being a dick does not make people feel better about Democrats.
I think Jen Psaki is doing a good job of being fact based, but her messages get droned out by Twitter Doctors and Rochelle Walensky who talk in level of certainty that they don't have and makes people suspect this far into it. Based on last year, it is just as likely that schools that have mask mandates will have as many quarantines as schools that don't. The CDC MMWR in May on school transmission showed that student mask policies were statistically insignificant. I think when people talk about COVID issues, even scientists, they need more humility.
Before anyone accuses me of being a COVID denialist, I have a 5 year old who wears a mask to school. My comment is just on the politics and what I see in suburban people who switched to vote to Biden. If I were Biden, I would start sending out people from the WH Task Force to talk about it in a more nuanced way to target people who are throwing up their hands at everyone. I think on a pod you did in December on video ads, you commented that you were surprised that hitting Trump on COVID in swing states was not as effective as you guessed. I think this still holds.
I am totally with you on your Air Cover point. More Biden giving localities cover on vaccines is effective.
Unfortunately, Delta is changing the metric for children. Long-covid and hospitalizations for children under 12 and infants are on the rise (gov't reports from UK/India). Delta's 1,000x viral load is partially overpowering the immune system immaturity features that were protecting them. I am NOT looking forward to the headlines 1-2 months.
The psychology of "does this affect kids" is interesting, as there will still be those who prioritize hanging out at a bar over children's lives.
That is a good possibility on kids.. but that sort of goes to my point about people making projections and certainty. For example, if you look at the CDC HHS hospitalization data, the number (not %age of all hospitalized) of kids in the hospital for COVID is not increasing dramatically this summer. That was the same for the UK. The kids hospitals and ICUS's in the south are being filled by RSV cases, which is its own epidemic not getting enough attention.
Emergent data is suggesting otherwise.I was in the "thank god for immature immune system protection until 2 weeks ago when reports from Scotland were coming out. Data collection and analysis is not going to catch up for a few months. I'm a medical writer, and I've been watching this closely.
The other variant for kids and covid is that we, as a society, have stripped away layers that we used to protect them this past year. Indoor dining and recreation, crowded places, and no masks required. Now we're just going to have them fo into schools with various rules.
The Atlantic published a good overview from 2 days ago with decent evidence via links. However, the full evidence isn't there yet and won't be for weeks or months. There is proof that more kids are getting delta and strong indications that kids are susceptible to long covid. Are we really going to wait for the numbers to catch up before taking measures to protect our kids? Because one set of kids will unwillingly be the control group.
You just hit the point exactly. Nobody can predict exactly how vulnerable each category may be. There are far too many variables. The CDC admits that and tries to warn what segments of the population are more at risk at any given time, and what mitigations may be most effective for those who can’t (or won’t) vaccinate.
The CDC is telling us that kids are more susceptible than to previous variants, and that unvaccinated people are fueling this surge. It’s up to society to take those findings and take corresponding precautions. Why not err on the side of caution instead of turning kids into guinea pigs for people who apply Political Science to medical problems?
I am really glad to see this push back. I feel like the tide is turning against these governors a bit. They can hardly claim that their states are successful in protecting their citizens, since COVID is raging in their states. It doesn't help that their positions making demands of businesses (no mandates) and overriding local control seem to be the polar opposite of traditional conservative positions.
It would be better to focus on Abbot's (and DeSantis) for opposing vaccine mandates. Vaccines really prevent the spread of disease and save lives of the vaccinated and of the people the vaccinated person does not infect. Masks probably are a helpful, low cost way for vaccinated people to reduce the risk of transmitting the disease, and a nice gesture to tell other people you don't what them to get sick, but ultimately NOT a big deal. I'm a little concerned that many jurisdictions that jumped to impose masking mandates have been slow to impose vaccination mandates for public spaces and employees. Let's not let the good be the enemy of the better.
Think of the masks like the vaccine - they lessen he chance you will get others ill if you are pre-symptomatic/asymptomatic, and they will also lessen the amount of virus you inhale. Masks, social distancing, and limiting time in indoor public spaces work in conjunction with the vaccine. It's the swiss cheese model of protection for epidemics. Saying masks are useless buys into a narrative that is not true. There is a reason doctors and nurses mask up at hospitals, it is because masks WORK. Vax up, mask up 💉😷
I have no medical knowledge, let me say. But masks seem to have worked against the Cold and Flu season, as the 2020 vast reduction in numbers attest. Masks seem to be a big deal in the Operating Room, where they are worn as a precautionary step to lessening infection. Why all the needless debate about masks? How hard is it to wear a mask? Are people tired of wearing seatbelts, or still wearing out their friends patience with debates about their exact efficacy? I personally have never had a traffic accident, but I still belt up.
I think you can be skeptical about simple cloth masks being HIHGLY effective in preventing onward transmission and still think that am indoor mask mandate passes a cost benefit test.
You like to argue, I see. Even though I did not mention SIMPLE cloth masks, your response is worded as though I did. Did not mention HIGHLY effective. As a matter of fact, my wife has made several hundred double cloth masks with a polypropylene filter in between the fabric. She has given them away to nurses, local EMTs and the like since last Spring. And what are you talking about with a cost benefit analysis? No one really thinks like that when contemplating putting on a mask. It should be common courtesy. I can figure out the benefit. Won't ask what you see as the cost.
Abbot in TX might just be blustering and acting out to make people forget about people freezing to death in their homes over the state’s mismanagement of the power grid. But DeSantis seems to be making a bet that Pandemic stupidity will still be the driver in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary in 2024. That seems like a really bad bet. And in the meantime he is painting himself as a heartless murderer a year before his re-election campaign. I live in FL, and viewed up close, DeSantis seems like a smart guy but also a ham-fisted bully with a mean-little-kid temperament, whose political instincts are nearly always wrong. He is busy digging himself a hole and I think he’ll lose the governorship next year. Biden is inviting him down that path.
Honestly... I am not sure I agree on the politics. I am in a swing state and I listened to your pod on Thursday on messaging. I don't think messaging on big policy is resonating because no one locally is talking about anything but COVID. It is all consuming and the only thing they talk about.
It's also not black and white on how people who voted for Biden feel about this. In Georgia, we have 159 counties who mostly run the school systems. Last year, you would have one county virtual next to a neighboring county who had no pandemic rules and you saw their kids having a great school year with learning and homecoming dances and proms on Facebook... and similar COVID outcomes on a per capita county level. It felt like cognitive dissonance sometimes. It is hard for people living their day-to-day lives to let that feeling from last year go, even if Delta changes that. The result is not that people think the Republican counties are right, but everyone in government, regardless of both parties, is wrong. I think focusing on DeSantis being a dick does not make people feel better about Democrats.
I think Jen Psaki is doing a good job of being fact based, but her messages get droned out by Twitter Doctors and Rochelle Walensky who talk in level of certainty that they don't have and makes people suspect this far into it. Based on last year, it is just as likely that schools that have mask mandates will have as many quarantines as schools that don't. The CDC MMWR in May on school transmission showed that student mask policies were statistically insignificant. I think when people talk about COVID issues, even scientists, they need more humility.
Before anyone accuses me of being a COVID denialist, I have a 5 year old who wears a mask to school. My comment is just on the politics and what I see in suburban people who switched to vote to Biden. If I were Biden, I would start sending out people from the WH Task Force to talk about it in a more nuanced way to target people who are throwing up their hands at everyone. I think on a pod you did in December on video ads, you commented that you were surprised that hitting Trump on COVID in swing states was not as effective as you guessed. I think this still holds.
I am totally with you on your Air Cover point. More Biden giving localities cover on vaccines is effective.
Unfortunately, Delta is changing the metric for children. Long-covid and hospitalizations for children under 12 and infants are on the rise (gov't reports from UK/India). Delta's 1,000x viral load is partially overpowering the immune system immaturity features that were protecting them. I am NOT looking forward to the headlines 1-2 months.
The psychology of "does this affect kids" is interesting, as there will still be those who prioritize hanging out at a bar over children's lives.
That is a good possibility on kids.. but that sort of goes to my point about people making projections and certainty. For example, if you look at the CDC HHS hospitalization data, the number (not %age of all hospitalized) of kids in the hospital for COVID is not increasing dramatically this summer. That was the same for the UK. The kids hospitals and ICUS's in the south are being filled by RSV cases, which is its own epidemic not getting enough attention.
Emergent data is suggesting otherwise.I was in the "thank god for immature immune system protection until 2 weeks ago when reports from Scotland were coming out. Data collection and analysis is not going to catch up for a few months. I'm a medical writer, and I've been watching this closely.
The other variant for kids and covid is that we, as a society, have stripped away layers that we used to protect them this past year. Indoor dining and recreation, crowded places, and no masks required. Now we're just going to have them fo into schools with various rules.
The Atlantic published a good overview from 2 days ago with decent evidence via links. However, the full evidence isn't there yet and won't be for weeks or months. There is proof that more kids are getting delta and strong indications that kids are susceptible to long covid. Are we really going to wait for the numbers to catch up before taking measures to protect our kids? Because one set of kids will unwillingly be the control group.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/619712/
You just hit the point exactly. Nobody can predict exactly how vulnerable each category may be. There are far too many variables. The CDC admits that and tries to warn what segments of the population are more at risk at any given time, and what mitigations may be most effective for those who can’t (or won’t) vaccinate.
The CDC is telling us that kids are more susceptible than to previous variants, and that unvaccinated people are fueling this surge. It’s up to society to take those findings and take corresponding precautions. Why not err on the side of caution instead of turning kids into guinea pigs for people who apply Political Science to medical problems?
What I have been telling my wife!
I am really glad to see this push back. I feel like the tide is turning against these governors a bit. They can hardly claim that their states are successful in protecting their citizens, since COVID is raging in their states. It doesn't help that their positions making demands of businesses (no mandates) and overriding local control seem to be the polar opposite of traditional conservative positions.
It would be better to focus on Abbot's (and DeSantis) for opposing vaccine mandates. Vaccines really prevent the spread of disease and save lives of the vaccinated and of the people the vaccinated person does not infect. Masks probably are a helpful, low cost way for vaccinated people to reduce the risk of transmitting the disease, and a nice gesture to tell other people you don't what them to get sick, but ultimately NOT a big deal. I'm a little concerned that many jurisdictions that jumped to impose masking mandates have been slow to impose vaccination mandates for public spaces and employees. Let's not let the good be the enemy of the better.
Think of the masks like the vaccine - they lessen he chance you will get others ill if you are pre-symptomatic/asymptomatic, and they will also lessen the amount of virus you inhale. Masks, social distancing, and limiting time in indoor public spaces work in conjunction with the vaccine. It's the swiss cheese model of protection for epidemics. Saying masks are useless buys into a narrative that is not true. There is a reason doctors and nurses mask up at hospitals, it is because masks WORK. Vax up, mask up 💉😷
I have no medical knowledge, let me say. But masks seem to have worked against the Cold and Flu season, as the 2020 vast reduction in numbers attest. Masks seem to be a big deal in the Operating Room, where they are worn as a precautionary step to lessening infection. Why all the needless debate about masks? How hard is it to wear a mask? Are people tired of wearing seatbelts, or still wearing out their friends patience with debates about their exact efficacy? I personally have never had a traffic accident, but I still belt up.
I think you can be skeptical about simple cloth masks being HIHGLY effective in preventing onward transmission and still think that am indoor mask mandate passes a cost benefit test.
You like to argue, I see. Even though I did not mention SIMPLE cloth masks, your response is worded as though I did. Did not mention HIGHLY effective. As a matter of fact, my wife has made several hundred double cloth masks with a polypropylene filter in between the fabric. She has given them away to nurses, local EMTs and the like since last Spring. And what are you talking about with a cost benefit analysis? No one really thinks like that when contemplating putting on a mask. It should be common courtesy. I can figure out the benefit. Won't ask what you see as the cost.
I was trying to show that you can get to you conclusion with weaker assumptions.