Speaking for myself, Joe Biden has earned my confidence and trust. If he says he is up to another term, that’s good enough for me. Plus, who else could handle the Ukraine war so skillfully? Climate change and defense of democracy at home and abroad are by far the most important matters facing the country--nothing else is even close. What Democrat offers more and could do better?
I agree Biden's done a terrific job. Especially when he was dealt a hand with two jokers in it, to pass anything was skillful politics. Great to have an adult in the white house. At the same time, we are in the familiar electability trap. I think it's seductive (easy, attractive & wrong) to dismiss the polls.
Gore led Bush by 10 points on Labor Day weekend 2000. I don’t dismiss polls, but they are volatile, plus a lot can and will change between now and next summer. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to rack up impressive wins in special elections.
The political media and the pundits didn’t like Joe Biden in 2020 and they definitely don’t like him now. Is it because he is a terrible president? No. Just the opposite. His administration is too good, too buttoned up, too competent, and just too boring for them to stand.
These members of the fourth estate thrive on drama! Conflict! Backstabbing! Gossip! They don’t care about actual policy or achievements. They are junkies addicted to scandal and negativity that goes far beyond if it bleeds it leads.
They turn even a positive--Dem leaders like him--into a negative: they like him too much to tell him to step down. They need the “Dems in disarray” because it’s their comfort narrative and it would put the party on equal footing with the GOP, which is undergoing its own civil war.
Because they refuse to report, all they have is Hunter, Biden is old, polls polls polls, and dump Kamala. I don’t even bother reading or listening to these people when one of those “issues” is the topic. The focus on Biden’s age has gone from newsworthy to pathological. Same with polling 14 months out from Election Day.
Biden is running. He isn’t going to dump Kamala. He’s healthy and fit and has done a great job. He is liked among most voters, and even the Dems who think he’s too old will vote for him. They will.
The political media has a truly serious drama they could cover but refuse to: the threat of authoritarianism if the GOP wins. Where are the constant articles over the 2025 plan, or the threats all of these candidates--with the exception of Hutchison (Christie will vote for Trump)--pose? Where is the same scorn over Biden’s age for election deniers and the threats on voting and personal rights? These are real and important. Yet they one and done stories covered with a yawn.
As far as I’m concerned the vast majority of the political media are a threat to our democracy as well. These narratives aren’t going to change for the next year. AGAIN, it’s up to all of us ( well , those who like Joe and are eager to support him) to get out and counter this message, from using our own social media to conversations with friends to commenting on articles in the media we subscribe to to writing letters to the Ed and knocking doors, attending local rallies, etc.
It’s our country and it’s up to us to keep it by helping get Dems elected.
It's not even objectivity in my book... it's deliberate false equivalence and refusal to face the actual facts regarding what has happened to the Republican party. And I have to wonder how many of these drama-addicted pundits will live to regret their actions after a triumphant GOP has destroyed journalism in this country, and demonized journalists/media personalities to the point where they may even fear for their lives.
If we could look to our native Americans, we would learn they saw the aged as “wisdom keepers”. They were honored. Joe Biden has been in politics for 45 years and has adapted with time and has learned lessons over time.
Like James McMurtry sings, “ you can’t be young and do that”. American culture places
a premium on youth. We could use a premium on knowing history and the perspective it brings.
The choice for the election will come down to this: who would you want for a grandpa? Kindly wise Joe Biden or Crazy selfish boorish criminal Trump? I really am disappointed in Carville and others.
Why even publish this? Joe Biden is the man for the moment. Everybody would do better including NBC giving him an hour and a half if they would focus on the positive. The media is the biggest problem. Joe Biden is the only person who is centered enough to not let Trump get under his skin and just keep moving ahead in a positive direction. And he is an icon of decency.
Well, nothing is stopping Biden from “going out on the trail” early but without a primary challenger. Likewise, nothing is stopping all the other people mentioned from coming out as his surrogates earlier rather than later. It feels like the sooner some of these big name politicians can reconnect with their grassroots and start lowkey campaigning at the local level, the better to start capturing the interest of the almighty independents (are they really?) and to counteract the fake and irresponsibly reported news. Also, a question - I know there are eleventy hundred people in the GOP primary but are any of them *really* primary challengers for trump? Aren’t they more foils who showcase his relative strength?
As for Biden’s poll numbers, whether matched up against other Dems, or against Trump, let me say this. Both my wife and I are strong supporters of Biden; we have been since he announced. We admire what he’s gotten done and how he’s conducted himself. But both of us wish he was 15 years younger, mostly so all the critical yapping about his age would stop. We aren’t unique. Various shades of this are what is driving the numbers in Dem-on-Dem polling. But when voting starts I strongly believe all Dems will come back for him.
As for the general election, the next 14 months of watching Trump sit in a courtroom (maybe three of those months), rail against the justice system, and make other threats against democracy—will scare suburban voters away as much as it encourages his base.
We have strong advantages in the coming election. Great down-ballot candidates, and a superior presidential candidate. Let’s not get spooked about his age, but instead work our advantages and the MAGA disadvantages in all our volunteer efforts. I know we have a lot of great volunteers in Dan’s community, from the things you mention in your comments. I hope every one of the 50,000 subscribers are also volunteers by the time the work starts. As many of us know, there is no better feeling than putting your time in as a volunteer.
I have to wonder why the media seem to be paying so little attention to TRUMP'S age, health, or mental sharpness. Biden is old? Well, Trump is only three years younger. The current media-driven obsession with Biden's age, with little or no attention paid to Trump's age, gives me a pretty clear sense of where their biases are.
The point that I think is most important is that Biden is wise enough to choose excellent team members to his cabinet and beyond. I would emphasize that voting for Biden is a vote of confidence in his team who are really the force behind the curtain. Wisdom derived from years of working the levers of the system. Old, yes. Wise, yes. And experienced.
I so agree about the team. Biden is not running the country by himself, but with a team of very smart, experienced and talented people. I think that needs to be highlighted in the media much more than it has been. Especially when comparing to the Trump team of crooks and syncophants.
WTF is the matter with these people?? Have they not got it through their heads *yet* that the 2024 election is for real, just like 2020? The 2016 was too, but they didn't catch on till it was too late. Now they have no damn excuse.
I am not one of those people who think "our democracy" was in great shape before 2016. As far as I can tell, those people are mostly affluent white men and the white women who love them. But even a "you call this democracy?" skeptic like me can see that the American experiment is in serious trouble. The anti-democratic forces are strong and well funded, and too many people in the middle don't realize what'll happen if things really go south.
The Democratic Party has a very deep bench. There are quite a few potential presidents on that bench -- but if they really are of presidential caliber, they've sized up the situation and won't throw their hats in the ring till '28 or whenever.
And if Jonathan Chait is really "mystified," he needs to either get out more or go into another line of work.
The punditry’s panic is driven by their exhausting need for content to repeat, and the current doldrums on news.
That doesn’t mean the concern isn’t real or present, but I think it’s pretty easy to take a step back and recognize that whatever flaws Biden has they really don’t matter by comparison. It’s still the case that when I talk to (very conservative) family in Georgia or (radical progressive) neighbors in Seattle that most speak about trump and the Rs. Any antagonism of Biden is tertiary.
The electorate is in bad straights, we need a moment to breathe and accept our fate that we have to have one more term with a boomer in the White House. I’m resentful of that, and I think a lot of other people my age or younger are too. Honestly Mitch McConnell has done more to hurt Biden in my eyes than any one just by being publicly geriatric. So we are having a little moment of grief, you can see all five phases present in different people (today I’m in acceptance 😂).
But I think the objective argument for Biden is overwhelming:
0) Incumbents almost always win
1) he beat trump already
2) trumps position is dramatically worse
The polls are worthy of consideration, but the structural case for Biden is too strong for them to change my mind.
You mentioned Carter in 1980 and H.W. Bush in 1992, but you forgot a third analogy — 1976 (which I think still qualifies as “the modern era”). Reagan mounted an impressive primary challenge to Jerry Ford — who, after all, was (and remains) the only person to hold the job without ever having been popularly elected to either the presidency or vice-presidency in the first place.
That made Ford uniquely vulnerable to a primary challenge — and considering how close the 1976 election ultimately was, no doubt contributed at least somewhat to Ford’s eventual defeat. Reagan also was the only such primary challenge who ultimately earned the nomination and, eventually, the presidency. But I think it reinforces the notion that, as a general rule, primary challenges hurt incumbents instead of helping them.
The Cheeto did not win the popular vote in 2016. And I would sort of argue that W also was never elected with the popular vote, only bc of the 2000 USSC decision giving him the presidency, and then relying on the popularity (?) of incumbents to get him elected in 2004. But I digress.
Though difficult to prove in terms of outcomes, primary challenges are generally bad for incumbents because it demonstrates weakness in the incumbent.
1952-Truman decides not to run for re-election (challenge by TN Senator Kefauver who won the NH primary)
1968-Johnson decides not to run for re-election (Vietnam, McCarthy AND RFK as challengers)
1976-The aforementioned Ford/Reagan
1980-Carter and Ted Kennedy (Reagan had a clear advantage: the country did not want to tighten its belt, turn down the thermostat, or even know that Reagan was working behind Carter's back to stop the hostages from being freed in Iran, but Ted Kennedy's challenge was not helpful.)
As always, I appreciate Dan's easy to understand dissection of complicated issues and (especially in this piece) focus on the polls and what they actually say.
PSA guys need to keep reminding us that the threat is real that Trump will win.
Now, let's get to work as if the last vestiges of our democracy were at stake.
People often give the "small sample size" caveat when talking about the instances in modern history when an incumbent has had a serious challenge for the nomination and went on to lose. That is important, but I haven't seen anybody note the "cause vs. effect" caveat. That is, did they lose because of the primary challenge, or did they have a serious primary challenge because they were going to lose? I'm not arguing that Biden should drop out or be challenged, but just pointing out another problem with the historical analogies.
I just saw an interesting article (WaPo I think) that contained a chart showing that while large numbers of people (82%) seemed to like the idea of 'someone else' running besides Biden, when push came to shove re: SPECIFIC alternative candidates? Every one of them got only 1-3% of the vote as an alternative to Biden. So in other words, there's this vague 'feeling' that someone else should run, but no actual strongly supported alternatives. At least according to this one article... wish I could remember the name of it.
Well there are some data, and they're negative and trending. If we agree we can't trust it then I guess it's all just prognostication which is an uncomfortable place to be.
One way to think about decisions is to imagine them full-fledged, and imagine their opposite. Starting from the status quo (Biden candidacy) it's hard to do a good job of imagining the future.
Maybe there shouldn't be a primary at all, but instead he should step down. Immediately you can picture the flowering of multiple vibrant campaigns. Yes, Biden's done a great job but I bet Warren/Yang would do as well or better, and would gather all the iconoclast voters who at some level hate that they have to vote for an asshole like DT to break free from the system. We need some new ideas AND integrity. Put that on the table, and we get a landslide.
Warren couldn’t even win the 2020 primary. She won not a single state. But I admit she finished better than Yang. I don’t understand the yearning for boutique candidates who have shown absolutely no appeal with the general electorate.
On "imagine them opposite" I usually mean, instead of buying a bigger car, how about a smaller one? Really looking at the spectrum clears your thinking. Coming back to this discussion, instead of a primary situation, (pretty conventional) imagine a Manchin No Labels candidacy. Yikes, Trump likely wins. We must consider several potential futures.
Speaking for myself, Joe Biden has earned my confidence and trust. If he says he is up to another term, that’s good enough for me. Plus, who else could handle the Ukraine war so skillfully? Climate change and defense of democracy at home and abroad are by far the most important matters facing the country--nothing else is even close. What Democrat offers more and could do better?
I agree Biden's done a terrific job. Especially when he was dealt a hand with two jokers in it, to pass anything was skillful politics. Great to have an adult in the white house. At the same time, we are in the familiar electability trap. I think it's seductive (easy, attractive & wrong) to dismiss the polls.
Gore led Bush by 10 points on Labor Day weekend 2000. I don’t dismiss polls, but they are volatile, plus a lot can and will change between now and next summer. Meanwhile, Democrats continue to rack up impressive wins in special elections.
The political media and the pundits didn’t like Joe Biden in 2020 and they definitely don’t like him now. Is it because he is a terrible president? No. Just the opposite. His administration is too good, too buttoned up, too competent, and just too boring for them to stand.
These members of the fourth estate thrive on drama! Conflict! Backstabbing! Gossip! They don’t care about actual policy or achievements. They are junkies addicted to scandal and negativity that goes far beyond if it bleeds it leads.
They turn even a positive--Dem leaders like him--into a negative: they like him too much to tell him to step down. They need the “Dems in disarray” because it’s their comfort narrative and it would put the party on equal footing with the GOP, which is undergoing its own civil war.
Because they refuse to report, all they have is Hunter, Biden is old, polls polls polls, and dump Kamala. I don’t even bother reading or listening to these people when one of those “issues” is the topic. The focus on Biden’s age has gone from newsworthy to pathological. Same with polling 14 months out from Election Day.
Biden is running. He isn’t going to dump Kamala. He’s healthy and fit and has done a great job. He is liked among most voters, and even the Dems who think he’s too old will vote for him. They will.
The political media has a truly serious drama they could cover but refuse to: the threat of authoritarianism if the GOP wins. Where are the constant articles over the 2025 plan, or the threats all of these candidates--with the exception of Hutchison (Christie will vote for Trump)--pose? Where is the same scorn over Biden’s age for election deniers and the threats on voting and personal rights? These are real and important. Yet they one and done stories covered with a yawn.
As far as I’m concerned the vast majority of the political media are a threat to our democracy as well. These narratives aren’t going to change for the next year. AGAIN, it’s up to all of us ( well , those who like Joe and are eager to support him) to get out and counter this message, from using our own social media to conversations with friends to commenting on articles in the media we subscribe to to writing letters to the Ed and knocking doors, attending local rallies, etc.
It’s our country and it’s up to us to keep it by helping get Dems elected.
Oh, and the media’s other addiction? “Objectivity” which means sacrificing truth--The GOP is now a threat to democracy--for balance.
It's not even objectivity in my book... it's deliberate false equivalence and refusal to face the actual facts regarding what has happened to the Republican party. And I have to wonder how many of these drama-addicted pundits will live to regret their actions after a triumphant GOP has destroyed journalism in this country, and demonized journalists/media personalities to the point where they may even fear for their lives.
If we could look to our native Americans, we would learn they saw the aged as “wisdom keepers”. They were honored. Joe Biden has been in politics for 45 years and has adapted with time and has learned lessons over time.
Like James McMurtry sings, “ you can’t be young and do that”. American culture places
a premium on youth. We could use a premium on knowing history and the perspective it brings.
The choice for the election will come down to this: who would you want for a grandpa? Kindly wise Joe Biden or Crazy selfish boorish criminal Trump? I really am disappointed in Carville and others.
Why even publish this? Joe Biden is the man for the moment. Everybody would do better including NBC giving him an hour and a half if they would focus on the positive. The media is the biggest problem. Joe Biden is the only person who is centered enough to not let Trump get under his skin and just keep moving ahead in a positive direction. And he is an icon of decency.
Well, nothing is stopping Biden from “going out on the trail” early but without a primary challenger. Likewise, nothing is stopping all the other people mentioned from coming out as his surrogates earlier rather than later. It feels like the sooner some of these big name politicians can reconnect with their grassroots and start lowkey campaigning at the local level, the better to start capturing the interest of the almighty independents (are they really?) and to counteract the fake and irresponsibly reported news. Also, a question - I know there are eleventy hundred people in the GOP primary but are any of them *really* primary challengers for trump? Aren’t they more foils who showcase his relative strength?
As for Biden’s poll numbers, whether matched up against other Dems, or against Trump, let me say this. Both my wife and I are strong supporters of Biden; we have been since he announced. We admire what he’s gotten done and how he’s conducted himself. But both of us wish he was 15 years younger, mostly so all the critical yapping about his age would stop. We aren’t unique. Various shades of this are what is driving the numbers in Dem-on-Dem polling. But when voting starts I strongly believe all Dems will come back for him.
As for the general election, the next 14 months of watching Trump sit in a courtroom (maybe three of those months), rail against the justice system, and make other threats against democracy—will scare suburban voters away as much as it encourages his base.
We have strong advantages in the coming election. Great down-ballot candidates, and a superior presidential candidate. Let’s not get spooked about his age, but instead work our advantages and the MAGA disadvantages in all our volunteer efforts. I know we have a lot of great volunteers in Dan’s community, from the things you mention in your comments. I hope every one of the 50,000 subscribers are also volunteers by the time the work starts. As many of us know, there is no better feeling than putting your time in as a volunteer.
I have to wonder why the media seem to be paying so little attention to TRUMP'S age, health, or mental sharpness. Biden is old? Well, Trump is only three years younger. The current media-driven obsession with Biden's age, with little or no attention paid to Trump's age, gives me a pretty clear sense of where their biases are.
The point that I think is most important is that Biden is wise enough to choose excellent team members to his cabinet and beyond. I would emphasize that voting for Biden is a vote of confidence in his team who are really the force behind the curtain. Wisdom derived from years of working the levers of the system. Old, yes. Wise, yes. And experienced.
I so agree about the team. Biden is not running the country by himself, but with a team of very smart, experienced and talented people. I think that needs to be highlighted in the media much more than it has been. Especially when comparing to the Trump team of crooks and syncophants.
This argument is standing in for a primary against Biden, thanks to the media.
WTF is the matter with these people?? Have they not got it through their heads *yet* that the 2024 election is for real, just like 2020? The 2016 was too, but they didn't catch on till it was too late. Now they have no damn excuse.
I am not one of those people who think "our democracy" was in great shape before 2016. As far as I can tell, those people are mostly affluent white men and the white women who love them. But even a "you call this democracy?" skeptic like me can see that the American experiment is in serious trouble. The anti-democratic forces are strong and well funded, and too many people in the middle don't realize what'll happen if things really go south.
The Democratic Party has a very deep bench. There are quite a few potential presidents on that bench -- but if they really are of presidential caliber, they've sized up the situation and won't throw their hats in the ring till '28 or whenever.
And if Jonathan Chait is really "mystified," he needs to either get out more or go into another line of work.
The punditry’s panic is driven by their exhausting need for content to repeat, and the current doldrums on news.
That doesn’t mean the concern isn’t real or present, but I think it’s pretty easy to take a step back and recognize that whatever flaws Biden has they really don’t matter by comparison. It’s still the case that when I talk to (very conservative) family in Georgia or (radical progressive) neighbors in Seattle that most speak about trump and the Rs. Any antagonism of Biden is tertiary.
The electorate is in bad straights, we need a moment to breathe and accept our fate that we have to have one more term with a boomer in the White House. I’m resentful of that, and I think a lot of other people my age or younger are too. Honestly Mitch McConnell has done more to hurt Biden in my eyes than any one just by being publicly geriatric. So we are having a little moment of grief, you can see all five phases present in different people (today I’m in acceptance 😂).
But I think the objective argument for Biden is overwhelming:
0) Incumbents almost always win
1) he beat trump already
2) trumps position is dramatically worse
The polls are worthy of consideration, but the structural case for Biden is too strong for them to change my mind.
You mentioned Carter in 1980 and H.W. Bush in 1992, but you forgot a third analogy — 1976 (which I think still qualifies as “the modern era”). Reagan mounted an impressive primary challenge to Jerry Ford — who, after all, was (and remains) the only person to hold the job without ever having been popularly elected to either the presidency or vice-presidency in the first place.
That made Ford uniquely vulnerable to a primary challenge — and considering how close the 1976 election ultimately was, no doubt contributed at least somewhat to Ford’s eventual defeat. Reagan also was the only such primary challenge who ultimately earned the nomination and, eventually, the presidency. But I think it reinforces the notion that, as a general rule, primary challenges hurt incumbents instead of helping them.
The Cheeto did not win the popular vote in 2016. And I would sort of argue that W also was never elected with the popular vote, only bc of the 2000 USSC decision giving him the presidency, and then relying on the popularity (?) of incumbents to get him elected in 2004. But I digress.
Though difficult to prove in terms of outcomes, primary challenges are generally bad for incumbents because it demonstrates weakness in the incumbent.
1952-Truman decides not to run for re-election (challenge by TN Senator Kefauver who won the NH primary)
1968-Johnson decides not to run for re-election (Vietnam, McCarthy AND RFK as challengers)
1976-The aforementioned Ford/Reagan
1980-Carter and Ted Kennedy (Reagan had a clear advantage: the country did not want to tighten its belt, turn down the thermostat, or even know that Reagan was working behind Carter's back to stop the hostages from being freed in Iran, but Ted Kennedy's challenge was not helpful.)
As always, I appreciate Dan's easy to understand dissection of complicated issues and (especially in this piece) focus on the polls and what they actually say.
PSA guys need to keep reminding us that the threat is real that Trump will win.
Now, let's get to work as if the last vestiges of our democracy were at stake.
Cannot believe we have to do this again.
People often give the "small sample size" caveat when talking about the instances in modern history when an incumbent has had a serious challenge for the nomination and went on to lose. That is important, but I haven't seen anybody note the "cause vs. effect" caveat. That is, did they lose because of the primary challenge, or did they have a serious primary challenge because they were going to lose? I'm not arguing that Biden should drop out or be challenged, but just pointing out another problem with the historical analogies.
Dan - Do you think there is even a remote possibility that Biden might consider the advice of David Ignatius, and perhaps others behind the scenes, and decide to bow out? https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/
I just saw an interesting article (WaPo I think) that contained a chart showing that while large numbers of people (82%) seemed to like the idea of 'someone else' running besides Biden, when push came to shove re: SPECIFIC alternative candidates? Every one of them got only 1-3% of the vote as an alternative to Biden. So in other words, there's this vague 'feeling' that someone else should run, but no actual strongly supported alternatives. At least according to this one article... wish I could remember the name of it.
Well there are some data, and they're negative and trending. If we agree we can't trust it then I guess it's all just prognostication which is an uncomfortable place to be.
One way to think about decisions is to imagine them full-fledged, and imagine their opposite. Starting from the status quo (Biden candidacy) it's hard to do a good job of imagining the future.
Maybe there shouldn't be a primary at all, but instead he should step down. Immediately you can picture the flowering of multiple vibrant campaigns. Yes, Biden's done a great job but I bet Warren/Yang would do as well or better, and would gather all the iconoclast voters who at some level hate that they have to vote for an asshole like DT to break free from the system. We need some new ideas AND integrity. Put that on the table, and we get a landslide.
Warren couldn’t even win the 2020 primary. She won not a single state. But I admit she finished better than Yang. I don’t understand the yearning for boutique candidates who have shown absolutely no appeal with the general electorate.
On "imagine them opposite" I usually mean, instead of buying a bigger car, how about a smaller one? Really looking at the spectrum clears your thinking. Coming back to this discussion, instead of a primary situation, (pretty conventional) imagine a Manchin No Labels candidacy. Yikes, Trump likely wins. We must consider several potential futures.