Oh to imagine a President Elizabeth Warren.... I'm not sure the world or the US specifically would be in a much better place, but the image itself makes me smile and wistfully sigh....
You packed a lot in there, and nicely done, as usual. In addition to the big money interests you mentioned, there is the dark money driving certain court cases, as Sen. Blumenthal described in the Kavanaugh hearing. They complement each other in influencing Congress and the Judiciary.
If I were to predict an ex ante path for Democrats to pass the entire Biden agenda this year it would be nearly identical to how everything is playing out. Just ask yourself how would you predict that red-state/district Senators and Reps would act if they knew that in order to enact Biden's full agenda they would need to reform the filibuster. One prediction would have been that congressional dems pass Biden's BBB agenda under the filibuster proof reconciliation process in the spring and summer. Timing the signing for after Labor Day when everyone is back from vacation and paying attention. The only way to pass ANYTHING else is to pass filibuster reform. If I am Manchin et al. I know that the GOP will describe any filibuster reform as a radical socialist powergrab to destroy America and install the [insert hated group]-agenda. So, I might predict that these red-state dems might want as much cover for that as possible and I might predict that they would spend the spring and summer vocally establishing their bona fides as a salt-of-the-earth, paragon-of-moderation, last-reasonable-person-left-in-Washington. In other words, an ex ante prediction might look exactly like what we have been seeing so far. I might also predict that Dems would stage a fight that has the GOP taking the side of default and government shutdown. Sound familiar? I would have then predicted the Senate follow its history making enactment of the reconciliation/infrastructure/BBB legislation with a vote-a-palooza of stand alone bills for extremely popular policies that the GOP will filibuster (e.g., minimum wage, DREAM Act, universal background checks, voting rights, end gerrymandering, capping credit card interest rates, reclassify marijuana). After the GOP has spent two months standing up for default and government shutdown and standing in the way of very popular legislation, then, and only then, can Manchin et al. say they think the modern filibuster needs to be reformed and have cover for doing so. I don't know if it will happen but I'm looking around and seeing people behave as I might have predicted they would act in order to enact the entire Democratic agenda.
Dan, you wrote: "The broad coalition — and our narrow majorities — means that Democrats need a bunch of centrist politicians to support any and every bill that passes through Congress." Did you mean *centrist* or did you mean *moderate*? (Thanks to you, I know now that there is a difference! :-) )
Why are Manchin (D-FossilFuels) and Sinema (D-Pharma) called moderate. My way or the highway is extreme, not moderate. Almost all progressive backed off their positions to a in backing* infrastructure bill. are focused on what they thing is best for the country; and polls show support of the public for almost all policies in reconciliation.
I realize that Manchinema are not the only difficulty here, but I'm tired of hearing about what their constituents supposedly want from them. To me, the problem is that neither is smart or evolved enough to make the compelling case for putting the planet and democracy ahead of their own desire for power in their little corners of the world. I'm starting to feel the way I did last fall: defeated, already. Have to take a deep breath, work harder, think positive.
Oh to imagine a President Elizabeth Warren.... I'm not sure the world or the US specifically would be in a much better place, but the image itself makes me smile and wistfully sigh....
You packed a lot in there, and nicely done, as usual. In addition to the big money interests you mentioned, there is the dark money driving certain court cases, as Sen. Blumenthal described in the Kavanaugh hearing. They complement each other in influencing Congress and the Judiciary.
If I were to predict an ex ante path for Democrats to pass the entire Biden agenda this year it would be nearly identical to how everything is playing out. Just ask yourself how would you predict that red-state/district Senators and Reps would act if they knew that in order to enact Biden's full agenda they would need to reform the filibuster. One prediction would have been that congressional dems pass Biden's BBB agenda under the filibuster proof reconciliation process in the spring and summer. Timing the signing for after Labor Day when everyone is back from vacation and paying attention. The only way to pass ANYTHING else is to pass filibuster reform. If I am Manchin et al. I know that the GOP will describe any filibuster reform as a radical socialist powergrab to destroy America and install the [insert hated group]-agenda. So, I might predict that these red-state dems might want as much cover for that as possible and I might predict that they would spend the spring and summer vocally establishing their bona fides as a salt-of-the-earth, paragon-of-moderation, last-reasonable-person-left-in-Washington. In other words, an ex ante prediction might look exactly like what we have been seeing so far. I might also predict that Dems would stage a fight that has the GOP taking the side of default and government shutdown. Sound familiar? I would have then predicted the Senate follow its history making enactment of the reconciliation/infrastructure/BBB legislation with a vote-a-palooza of stand alone bills for extremely popular policies that the GOP will filibuster (e.g., minimum wage, DREAM Act, universal background checks, voting rights, end gerrymandering, capping credit card interest rates, reclassify marijuana). After the GOP has spent two months standing up for default and government shutdown and standing in the way of very popular legislation, then, and only then, can Manchin et al. say they think the modern filibuster needs to be reformed and have cover for doing so. I don't know if it will happen but I'm looking around and seeing people behave as I might have predicted they would act in order to enact the entire Democratic agenda.
Dan, you wrote: "The broad coalition — and our narrow majorities — means that Democrats need a bunch of centrist politicians to support any and every bill that passes through Congress." Did you mean *centrist* or did you mean *moderate*? (Thanks to you, I know now that there is a difference! :-) )
Why are Manchin (D-FossilFuels) and Sinema (D-Pharma) called moderate. My way or the highway is extreme, not moderate. Almost all progressive backed off their positions to a in backing* infrastructure bill. are focused on what they thing is best for the country; and polls show support of the public for almost all policies in reconciliation.
I realize that Manchinema are not the only difficulty here, but I'm tired of hearing about what their constituents supposedly want from them. To me, the problem is that neither is smart or evolved enough to make the compelling case for putting the planet and democracy ahead of their own desire for power in their little corners of the world. I'm starting to feel the way I did last fall: defeated, already. Have to take a deep breath, work harder, think positive.