Trump Makes A Huge Mistake on Social Security

By admitting he wants to cut the Social Security, Trump gives Biden an opening

Donald Trump’s fat mouth often gets him into trouble. Usually, he says something outrageous and offensive that rightly alarms and upsets the media and the activist Democrats but is disconnected from the daily concerns of the less politically engaged voters who decide elections. Trump’s comments about being a dictator on day one and encouraging Russia to invade a NATO country are two such examples. These statements drove days of cable news and social media chatter but did not move the needle in the polls.

Yesterday was different.

For some nonsensical reason, Trump spent Monday morning doing a phone interview with a friendly CNBC anchor when he stepped in it.

Trump was asked Monday by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” if he had changed his “outlook on how to handle entitlements: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.”

Trump replied, “So first of all, there is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements — in terms of cutting — and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements.”

“Tremendous bad management of entitlements. There is tremendous amounts of things, and numbers of things, you can do,” Trump said.

Trump took issue with Kernen’s suggestion that there is at least the perception that there was not much difference between how he views the idea of cutting entitlement spending and how Biden views it.

“I don’t necessarily agree with the statement,” Trump said.

Just a few days after President Biden pledged in the State of the Union to stop any Republican effort to cut Social Security, Trump announced that he would do just that.

Here’s the video via the Biden Campaign:

This moment offers a clear difference on an issue of utmost importance to persuadable voters.

If you find the message guidance in this post helpful, please share it with your network and post it on social media.

I started this newsletter to provide messaging guidance to everyday people trying to persuade their friends and family that this election matters. If you want to support this work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber.

This Was Not a Gaffe

On issues that Trump is naive about — which includes everything other than what was said on Fox News in the previous hour — Donald Trump tends to vomit up incomprehensible word salad. When Trump says something this politically unwise, many of his apologists in the media portray comments more as a misstatement than a policy pronouncement. But that is very wrong.

In 2016, Trump repeatedly pledged to protect Medicare and Social Security, but then included budget cuts to Social Security and Medicare every year of his presidency. Monday’s comment was also not the first time that he expressed interest in cutting Social Security and Medicare. Here’s a montage of all the times Trump has called for these sorts of cuts:

The danger is real. If Trump is elected, the most likely scenario is that he returns to the White House with a Republican Senate and House. All of the candidates to replace Mitch McConnell have a record of supporting cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Speaker Mike Johnson has a long history of calling for cuts to Social Security. When he was chair of the Freedom Caucus, the group put out a budget that called for raising the retirement age for Social Security and Medicare, cuts to benefits, and privatizing Medicare. In other words, a Trump victory likely means cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

A Glaring Trump Vulnerability and Biden Opportunity

The politics of Trump opening the door to Social Security could not be more critical. The primary reason for Trump’s slight lead over Biden in the polling average is that he has made gains with a core part of the Democratic base — working class voters of color. According to the New York Times/Siena College poll released a couple of weeks ago:

The historical edge Democrats have held with working-class voters of color who did not attend college continues to erode.

Mr. Biden won 72 percent of those voters in 2020, according to exit polling, providing him with a nearly 50-point edge over Mr. Trump. Today, the Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden only narrowly leading among nonwhite voters who did not graduate from college: 47 percent to 41 percent.

Other polls show a wider margin for Biden, but also indicate that Trump has made gains since 2020. There are many complicated reasons for why this is happening, but Trump’s significant advantage on economic issues is certainly a driver. In the NYT poll, 26% of all voters rate the economy as excellent or good, but only 19% of non-white voters without a college degree say the same. Six in ten of these voters believe the economy is worse than it was four years ago. (It’s not!)

Reams of polling show that preventing cuts to Social Security and Medicare is a top priority for all voters, especially working-class voters. In a recent Blueprint poll, a majority of working-class voters and 46% of non-college-educated, non-white voters expressed concern that “Trump would cut funding for Social Security and Medicare.

Pressing Trump on his plans to cut Social Security and Medicare is a way to go on the offense with the voters who will decide the election.

How to Win the Argument

The Biden campaign has been aggressive in pushing Trump’s comments, but as always, they need our help. Here are some thoughts on how to assist them:

• Spread the Word: We have to spread the word. Most voters don’t watch CNBC (Thank God!) and are not following the back and forth on the campaign trail. Because Trump has underserved populist bona fides, many voters give him the benefit of the doubt. They believe he will protect Social Security and Medicare more than other Republicans. Therefore, step one is informing voters. Some things to share include:

  • This compilation of Trump’s comments calling for cuts to Social Security; 

  • This video from the Biden campaign comparing the candidates’ positions on Social Security; and

  • This new ad from the Biden Campaign.

• Put the Cuts in Context: In the Blueprint poll, the only thing that concerned voters more than Trump cutting Social Security was his plan to cut taxes for the rich. When he was in the White House, Trump passed a massive tax cut that primarily benefited corporations and the wealthy and added trillions to the deficit. Those tax cuts expire at the end of 2025 and Trump wants to renew and expand them. Trump isn’t trying to save Social Security; he wants to cut it to pay for more tax cuts for corporations and the very wealthy.

• Another Example of MAGA Extremism: Republican extremism spans a wide range of issues which makes the idea that they’ll cut Social Security more believable. Based on some excellent work from Bryan Bennet of Navigator Research, I have taken their recommended messaging and edited it to include Trump.
  While MAGA Republicans are focused on taking away abortion access and cutting Social Security and Medicare, Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress are focused on protecting Social Security and Medicare and bringing down the cost of your insulin – which is why they passed legislation that allows Medicare to negotiate the cost of prescription drugs.

There’s no question that the general election battle between Trump and Biden kicked off with the President’s fiery State of the Union address. And Trump just made the first big mistake of the race.