What Happens if Biden Steps Aside

Switching candidates at this point is unprecedented, but it's not impossible

In the three weeks since the debate, there have been several occasions when it felt like President Biden was about to step aside, only to have the vibes quickly shift back in his favor.

No one knows what will happen, but the pressure on President Biden right now is different — and potentially unsustainable. Over the few days, we learned that Hakeem Jefferies, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi directly made the case to Biden that he should step aside for the good of the party. According to Semafor, Jeffery Katzenberg, the Hollywood mogul heading up Biden’s fundraising, told the President that his campaign was running into money troubles.

Despite this pressure, President Biden reiterated on Friday morning that he is the nominee and plans to remain in the race.

I’m not sure how President Biden can continue a campaign when most of the party believes he is leading us into electoral disaster. How will that work? Will Biden spend the fall traveling to states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin while the Senate candidates in those states avoid and besmirch him? Every public uttering of the President will be flyspecked. Every misstatement will become a mini-crisis. Every Democrat will be accused of covering up the President’s infirmities. That is an undignified death march towards complete MAGA control of the government.

I was hesitant to write a version of this post because it felt premature, especially when feelings about the issue have been so intense on both sides. So, why poke the bear? Because I have been inundated with questions from readers about what happens if Biden drops out, as well as people claiming that it’s irresponsible to suggest Biden step aside without a “plan.”

So, here goes nothing.

1. Would Another Candidate Be Stronger Than Biden?

There is no risk-free path. Switching candidates does not guarantee victory. It’s possible that Vice President Harris or someone else would underperform Biden. I wrote last week about what the polls say about a potential Harris candidacy. Another Democrat would not bear the burdens of incumbency in an anti-incumbent environment but would also be entirely unknown and untested. Many candidates look great on paper only to immediately wilt under the white-hot glare of presidential klieg lights (see DeSantis comma Ron).

Polling on this question is contradictory and hypothetical so it should be taken with six shakers worth of salt. However, a poll from Blue Labs, a Democratic firm, found:

Alternative Democratic candidates run ahead of President Biden by an average of three points across the battleground states. Nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the President. This includes Vice President Harris who runs better than the President (but behind the average alternative).

This poll received attention in Washington and added to the pressure on the President. There is no certainty that someone else will perform better than President Biden, but if you believe Trump is an existential danger AND Biden is likely to lose, then you should be willing to accept a higher potential upside from an alternative approach.

2. The Two Most Likely Paths

If Biden were to step aside, he would have two options:

• Harris Endorsement: The first would be to endorse Vice President Harris as the nominee immediately. Once Biden drops out, his delegates are unbound and free to vote for anyone at the convention. However, these delegates were chosen by the Biden campaign, and many, if not all, would follow Biden’s lead. It’s unlikely that another significant Democrat will decide to challenge Harris in that scenario. Both Harris and her vice presidential pick would need a majority of delegates at the convention, but that would be pro forma and likely drama-free.