Here in PA there is a state Supreme Court race and county commissioner races that will greatly affect the likelihood of a free and fair election in 2024. There are also school board elections that will determine whether what kids are taught will be determined by climate deniers and book banners. I feel like 2023 is actually the election year that will determine whether democracy survives. Another way to alleviate anxiety about Biden/Trump polls is to get busy and work for good candidates running right now.
Thank you for reminding us to stop freaking out and take action, and for providing some links for doing that. I have to say that all this emphasis on polls SUCKS. We're talking about democracy on life support here, not some horse race! And I will never understand how the economy is a "liability" for Biden, at least right now. Plus, Mango Mussolini is only 3 years younger and a walking heart attack. Really, people??!??
I stopped reading. I love you Dan, but you are all ridiculous. In fact as a one time die hard “friend of the Pod,” I stopped listening in 2020 because I didn’t like your coverage of Biden. Which is too bad because you guys are very smart--hey you built a massive evil empire after working in the WH--and even better, very funny.
But you are the media--and you just gotta stop. It’s a year out and so much could happen. There are so many things you can and should be covering but aren’t. You are helping to fracture the Dems when they need to be more United than ever.
You could be writing about Texas counties trying to limit women’s movement if they suspect them of traveling to get an abortion. Or the shenanigans of the WI Supreme Court. Or the new tool tool WI dems created to track rep voting etc to encourage more involvement between voters and their elected officials. Or that I got a text to help make calls to elect Dems in MS. (Say what now? I’ve gotten calls to help candidates in other states, but MS? Dems are getting organized everywhere). Or the moratorium on drilling in Alaska and the expansion of Grand Canyon lands. Or the evil that is Elon Musk. Or changes coming out of the economic summit happening now. Those are just a couple of topics. But no, you won’t. It’s “but her emails” again on steroids.
I am so sick to death of the doom and gloom. People talk about Biden’s age because the media harp on it. Same with “recession” and bad economy. a teen checkout person at Target used that word and my head almost exploded. And now the stupid bad polls. I’m not a Pollyanna, it is expensive out there and gasp, Biden is old! But this harping is out of hand and destructive.
This is where continuing to listen and read might help. At no point has this been the only note that Dan and the PSA crew have been singing. They have absolutely covered the positives of the Biden presidency and decried the media doom loop that focuses primarily on the negative. They have covered a multitude of issues. Dan focuses on polling because that is one aspect of his expertise. They have helped me refrain from losing hope.
And yet that is exactly what Dan has been doing. I didn’t say I don’t listen and read things, I just stopped reading this piece and frankly, I listen to a bunch of other podcasts now.
I don’t care that it’s one area of his expertise. The Dems who do pay close attention are on a frenzy now and it’s being fed by all these doom columns and discussions. It’s not healthy and it is only working to hurt Dems because you have those who say it’s hopeless and just give up, others who scream we need new candidates, and most of us who love Joe, think he’s doing a great job, and have watched Kamala grow and learn, enabling her to become a great leader herself.
It just encourages and feeds the lazy Dems in disarray BS.
I’m already deeply involved in my state and county. I know the challenges we are facing, which is why this harping on stupid issues--for God’s sake our youngest elected president was killed, anything can happen to anyone--just distracts from all the other work and is frankly a right wing talking point that has become mainstream.
my sentiments exactly!! Thank you for being able to say so!! I get so anxious and angry! I'm with you, as are many many others. Some day we will be thanking Joe Biden, who could have been enjoying a well-earned retirement, for literally SAVING our country ... partly because he's a real patriot who was the only one who had the experience to take it on, and, because he is genuinely a DECENT MAN!! Thank you!
Sing it!! I gave up on the Pods around the same time you did. The trigger was Lovett's pissy misogyny (I had enough of that crap as a lesbian feminist activist and writer in the '70s and '80s), but mostly I was tired of pontificating white male politicos. And there's so much good commentary out there these days!
People who obsess about Biden's age don't realize that the Biden *administration* is doing an amazing job. Biden didn't put it together by himself. In fact, the administration and the Democratic leadership in Congress seem to have pushed him a bit out of his old comfort zone, which suggests to me that he has the capacity to grow and broaden his outlook. The political media seem to have been suckered by the idea of the "imperial presidency" or the right wing's beloved "unitary executive." (To be fair, this may be partly influenced by the mess the Republicans have made of Congress in the last few decades.)
To each his or her own. But I am puzzled by why those who don’t listen to the pod and don’t like Dan’s writing are bothering to post here. Not criticizing. Just puzzled.
And I think politicians pontificate—it’s a method of address that infects most with their first election.
I guess pissy misogyny was just too cute not to use, justified or not. Lovett can be pissy—it’s part of his charm, after all. But anyone trying to pin misogyny on him could probably pin misandry on you. Just a quick scroll through the last few months’ pods shows as many female as male guests.
I didn’t realize listening to the pod was a prerequisite for reading a column. If I didn’t respect and like Dan I wouldn’t be a paid subscriber. But the media of which he is now a part is doing a crap job of focusing on and explaining issues and how they affect our lives. Instead, it’s sky is falling polls, which only reinforces the negativity and ignorance of many in the electorate and sends Dems into a tizzy.
You know what would be interesting to me? To hear how a campaign interprets this info and what they do or don’t do in response and why. The “problem” with the Biden admin is that they are competent and button-downed. They don’t generate gossip and aren’t torn by infighting, all which frustrates and bores the political media (no, the pod guys don’t fall for that same BS). As a result political journalists focus on any perceived negative and gin up clickbait stories which then get recirculated by others in the media and then influence readers and listeners.
As long as RW media is free to spew lies and twist facts, as long as there are no brakes on SM, the tribalism ingrained within the right will continue and elections will be closer than they should be. That background is missing from so many of these pundit takes.
I don’t have my head buried in the sand. I’m on the ground thinking and working on ways to get voters engaged and out to the polls.
Not sure why a campaign would see any value in sharing all that with the public. And their opponents. Sort of sounds like playing poker with a mirror behind you.
Lol. Did I say I didn't like (or value) Dan's writing? I don't believe so. If that were true, I wouldn't be reading it, and if I didn't read it, I wouldn't be posting here. It might not have occurred to you, but those of us who aren't polls-obsessed read polls-obsessed writers to understand more about how the polls-obsessed think. This is true for any number of subjects.
If you don't get the difference between misogyny (hatred of or contempt for women) and misandry (hatred of or contempt for men), you don't understand much about contemporary culture. Here's a quick review: In a patriarchal culture that privileges men, misogyny is the norm. This society privileges men. Get it now?
Well, what an undiscriminating putz I must be. I really look forward to both PSA editions, as well as PSW. Especially the Thursday pod, as Dan is a realist, a strategic thinker, and clearly has deep political insight. Not perfect, nor are the other hosts, but they do a great job of engaging, motivating, and encouraging.
I’ve heard a few of the rah-rah Dem podcasts out there that sort of soft-pedal issues, and don’t really have the capacity to talk through the detail the way Crooked Media does. Hacks on Tap are not Biden shills either. But both pods, maybe because of that, are objective in offering analysis and advice.
Why do we only talk about Biden’s age - which I agree is a very significant factor in this election - when Trump’s age is as much of a liability? It doesn’t seem to be discussed at all by any in the media.
Our friends from the Bulwark were on CSPAN and I think they actually answered this question really well. They said that Biden's age is the only thing that sticks out to people. When Biden talks he sounds old. When Trump talks he sounds absolutely insane. And because of the bothsides media mentality, they only talk about Biden=old, Trump=crazy and not Trump=crazy AND old.
Well, don't tell anyone, but i only listen to the Thursday pod, with Dan and Favreau. And i keep up with several other must read/must listen sources. In the mess we're living through, while the planet burns, it helps me to hear different ways of framing the issues. Hopefully this will make me a more effective advocate for democracy and sanity.
We have to strategize about preventing No Labels or another third party candidate from tanking the election. That’s the biggest risk of another Trump presidency.
Another great piece! Highly agree on channelling the anxiety. Lots of hysterical hand-wringing, not a lot of volunteers proportional to that hysteria. When I'm doing zoom phone banking the average volunteer seems like a retiree. Probably not the same crowd sounding off on Twitter/Reddit/Discord.
I highly recommend r/VoteDems if you are on Reddit. Much more positive and focused on action. It is infinitely better than r/politics, where everybody feels legalized marijuana and no student loans are all it will take for Democrats to win.
I might check it out. For volunteering, I'd recommend the DNC's Call Crew (worked with them in the Pa-163 special election earlier this year) and Call4Change (who I called with during the midterms and GA runoff)
The problem we as Democrats have is that we really want people to like us. Which makes *total sense* for Democratic politics. It might raise our anxiety like... all the damn time... but it'll serve us much better as the race heats up than going full fascist and pissing all over general election voters like Republicans seem to be choosing.
Like yesterday I started answering a question, completely seriously, with the words "Well, because we aren't in a cult..."
At the risk of being too cynical (can you really be too cynical in this day and age?) polling is worthless and has been since the end of the landline. Back in the day polls worked because you could get enough people on the phone to overcome most of the statistical issues, giving you a solid sample. That began to erode in the 1990s with ubiquitous Caller ID. It got worse in the 2000s when people stopped having landline phones. How often do you answer your phone when you don't recognize the number?
Read the methodology descriptions from CNN, WSJ, Marist, etc. They do their best, but they're still only able to talk to the very limited number of people who answer random calls or have landlines. I'm guessing the Venn diagram of "Landline Users / Random Call Answerers" and "Cranks Who Spend All Day Watching Fox" is pretty much a perfect "o".
I know there are mathematical models that supposedly offset the resulting bias, but they seem pretty hand-wavy. The utter failure of polling in the past, oh, 5 or 6 cycles pretty much tells the tale.
Are you sure? There were a couple cycles of uneven/poor polls, but the polls in ‘20 and ‘22 were pretty accurate, though there was a lot of misinterpretation the last six weeks of ‘22.
I think one of the things that explain the disconnect between lessening inflation and perceptions of the economy is the cumulative aspect of inflation. It’s 3% on top of the already 6% (or more depending on the item) increase. So yeah, lots of things still seem really expensive and the economy (as in real life finances) can still seem “bad” in spite of positive economic indicators. Not sure how that can be campaigned around except perhaps to stop saying the economy is great.
For those who want a better take on the polls, they can read Jennifer Rubin's piece from the Washington Post here, via a gift link from me: https://wapo.st/44OWQDH
As several other commenters noted Dan, there are things that are FAR more important to cover & discuss right now - for example, the races in Virginia, which could stop any further future political momentum of Glenn "Trumpkin" Youngkin, or the races in New Jersey, both of which are only weeks away, not 14 months away.
And of course, I'll keep beating the drum I do in many places, which is to say beat (not literally, of course) the media at all levels to focus on the stakes of every election over the odds - which effectively boils down to "Ignore the polls."
I'll finish by noting a mantra that was repeated all over the country by Dems during the 2008 Obama/Biden campaign: "No matter what the polls say, always ACT like we're 10 points down."
That attitude lead to a pretty damned amazing 2008 election result, as I recall. It's time to do that again.
And hell - if, by undercutting, ignoring, or destroying the ability of pollsters to put their work ahead of substantive coverage of actions & issues, we end putting some pollsters out of work? Or finally force them to get their field into some form of legitimacy again? All the better.
#FThePolls - ACT like we're 10 points down. Then let's go win as many races as we can, and kick ass.
It took me a few days to read this because I am not in a mild panic. I’m in full blown panic. But if I learned anything in 2016, polls are flawed and there is a lot more to them than on the surface. I need to volunteer and work to make sure the Indicted One and his cronies get sent packing.
Thanks for this. I'm a person who is very skeptical about polling simply due to the fact that I don't think polls have the reach they once did. I appreciated your doom loop analysis last week, and as my husband turned on Chuck Todd's last show, we listened to it again. Thankfully Gavin Newsom and Cornell Belcher pushed back and made some points you did last week and today.
Here in PA there is a state Supreme Court race and county commissioner races that will greatly affect the likelihood of a free and fair election in 2024. There are also school board elections that will determine whether what kids are taught will be determined by climate deniers and book banners. I feel like 2023 is actually the election year that will determine whether democracy survives. Another way to alleviate anxiety about Biden/Trump polls is to get busy and work for good candidates running right now.
Thank you. The 2024 race begins with this race. I have been harping t he at for a while.
Dems, take Coco’s words as your own:
“To those who thought you were putting water on my fire — you are really putting gas on it.”
Get out there and let’s win these races.
Thank you for reminding us to stop freaking out and take action, and for providing some links for doing that. I have to say that all this emphasis on polls SUCKS. We're talking about democracy on life support here, not some horse race! And I will never understand how the economy is a "liability" for Biden, at least right now. Plus, Mango Mussolini is only 3 years younger and a walking heart attack. Really, people??!??
I stopped reading. I love you Dan, but you are all ridiculous. In fact as a one time die hard “friend of the Pod,” I stopped listening in 2020 because I didn’t like your coverage of Biden. Which is too bad because you guys are very smart--hey you built a massive evil empire after working in the WH--and even better, very funny.
But you are the media--and you just gotta stop. It’s a year out and so much could happen. There are so many things you can and should be covering but aren’t. You are helping to fracture the Dems when they need to be more United than ever.
You could be writing about Texas counties trying to limit women’s movement if they suspect them of traveling to get an abortion. Or the shenanigans of the WI Supreme Court. Or the new tool tool WI dems created to track rep voting etc to encourage more involvement between voters and their elected officials. Or that I got a text to help make calls to elect Dems in MS. (Say what now? I’ve gotten calls to help candidates in other states, but MS? Dems are getting organized everywhere). Or the moratorium on drilling in Alaska and the expansion of Grand Canyon lands. Or the evil that is Elon Musk. Or changes coming out of the economic summit happening now. Those are just a couple of topics. But no, you won’t. It’s “but her emails” again on steroids.
I am so sick to death of the doom and gloom. People talk about Biden’s age because the media harp on it. Same with “recession” and bad economy. a teen checkout person at Target used that word and my head almost exploded. And now the stupid bad polls. I’m not a Pollyanna, it is expensive out there and gasp, Biden is old! But this harping is out of hand and destructive.
This is where continuing to listen and read might help. At no point has this been the only note that Dan and the PSA crew have been singing. They have absolutely covered the positives of the Biden presidency and decried the media doom loop that focuses primarily on the negative. They have covered a multitude of issues. Dan focuses on polling because that is one aspect of his expertise. They have helped me refrain from losing hope.
And yet that is exactly what Dan has been doing. I didn’t say I don’t listen and read things, I just stopped reading this piece and frankly, I listen to a bunch of other podcasts now.
I don’t care that it’s one area of his expertise. The Dems who do pay close attention are on a frenzy now and it’s being fed by all these doom columns and discussions. It’s not healthy and it is only working to hurt Dems because you have those who say it’s hopeless and just give up, others who scream we need new candidates, and most of us who love Joe, think he’s doing a great job, and have watched Kamala grow and learn, enabling her to become a great leader herself.
It just encourages and feeds the lazy Dems in disarray BS.
I’m already deeply involved in my state and county. I know the challenges we are facing, which is why this harping on stupid issues--for God’s sake our youngest elected president was killed, anything can happen to anyone--just distracts from all the other work and is frankly a right wing talking point that has become mainstream.
my sentiments exactly!! Thank you for being able to say so!! I get so anxious and angry! I'm with you, as are many many others. Some day we will be thanking Joe Biden, who could have been enjoying a well-earned retirement, for literally SAVING our country ... partly because he's a real patriot who was the only one who had the experience to take it on, and, because he is genuinely a DECENT MAN!! Thank you!
Sing it!! I gave up on the Pods around the same time you did. The trigger was Lovett's pissy misogyny (I had enough of that crap as a lesbian feminist activist and writer in the '70s and '80s), but mostly I was tired of pontificating white male politicos. And there's so much good commentary out there these days!
People who obsess about Biden's age don't realize that the Biden *administration* is doing an amazing job. Biden didn't put it together by himself. In fact, the administration and the Democratic leadership in Congress seem to have pushed him a bit out of his old comfort zone, which suggests to me that he has the capacity to grow and broaden his outlook. The political media seem to have been suckered by the idea of the "imperial presidency" or the right wing's beloved "unitary executive." (To be fair, this may be partly influenced by the mess the Republicans have made of Congress in the last few decades.)
To each his or her own. But I am puzzled by why those who don’t listen to the pod and don’t like Dan’s writing are bothering to post here. Not criticizing. Just puzzled.
And I think politicians pontificate—it’s a method of address that infects most with their first election.
I guess pissy misogyny was just too cute not to use, justified or not. Lovett can be pissy—it’s part of his charm, after all. But anyone trying to pin misogyny on him could probably pin misandry on you. Just a quick scroll through the last few months’ pods shows as many female as male guests.
I didn’t realize listening to the pod was a prerequisite for reading a column. If I didn’t respect and like Dan I wouldn’t be a paid subscriber. But the media of which he is now a part is doing a crap job of focusing on and explaining issues and how they affect our lives. Instead, it’s sky is falling polls, which only reinforces the negativity and ignorance of many in the electorate and sends Dems into a tizzy.
You know what would be interesting to me? To hear how a campaign interprets this info and what they do or don’t do in response and why. The “problem” with the Biden admin is that they are competent and button-downed. They don’t generate gossip and aren’t torn by infighting, all which frustrates and bores the political media (no, the pod guys don’t fall for that same BS). As a result political journalists focus on any perceived negative and gin up clickbait stories which then get recirculated by others in the media and then influence readers and listeners.
As long as RW media is free to spew lies and twist facts, as long as there are no brakes on SM, the tribalism ingrained within the right will continue and elections will be closer than they should be. That background is missing from so many of these pundit takes.
I don’t have my head buried in the sand. I’m on the ground thinking and working on ways to get voters engaged and out to the polls.
Not sure why a campaign would see any value in sharing all that with the public. And their opponents. Sort of sounds like playing poker with a mirror behind you.
I meant from Dan’s perspective as in the many ways a campaign can respond and what he thinks would work best. Sheesh.
Lol. Did I say I didn't like (or value) Dan's writing? I don't believe so. If that were true, I wouldn't be reading it, and if I didn't read it, I wouldn't be posting here. It might not have occurred to you, but those of us who aren't polls-obsessed read polls-obsessed writers to understand more about how the polls-obsessed think. This is true for any number of subjects.
If you don't get the difference between misogyny (hatred of or contempt for women) and misandry (hatred of or contempt for men), you don't understand much about contemporary culture. Here's a quick review: In a patriarchal culture that privileges men, misogyny is the norm. This society privileges men. Get it now?
Gee, an unsolicited and unneeded definition of misogyny and misandry, plus some gratuitous condescension. Very efficient!
Jennifer Rubin had a whole column about this yesterday 9/10.
https://www.threads.net/@washingtonpost/post/CxBhOA6AWXe/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
Well, what an undiscriminating putz I must be. I really look forward to both PSA editions, as well as PSW. Especially the Thursday pod, as Dan is a realist, a strategic thinker, and clearly has deep political insight. Not perfect, nor are the other hosts, but they do a great job of engaging, motivating, and encouraging.
I’ve heard a few of the rah-rah Dem podcasts out there that sort of soft-pedal issues, and don’t really have the capacity to talk through the detail the way Crooked Media does. Hacks on Tap are not Biden shills either. But both pods, maybe because of that, are objective in offering analysis and advice.
Why do we only talk about Biden’s age - which I agree is a very significant factor in this election - when Trump’s age is as much of a liability? It doesn’t seem to be discussed at all by any in the media.
Our friends from the Bulwark were on CSPAN and I think they actually answered this question really well. They said that Biden's age is the only thing that sticks out to people. When Biden talks he sounds old. When Trump talks he sounds absolutely insane. And because of the bothsides media mentality, they only talk about Biden=old, Trump=crazy and not Trump=crazy AND old.
Well, don't tell anyone, but i only listen to the Thursday pod, with Dan and Favreau. And i keep up with several other must read/must listen sources. In the mess we're living through, while the planet burns, it helps me to hear different ways of framing the issues. Hopefully this will make me a more effective advocate for democracy and sanity.
We have to strategize about preventing No Labels or another third party candidate from tanking the election. That’s the biggest risk of another Trump presidency.
Exactly! That’s what is stressing me out and making me lose sleep. I’m especially worried about the third party appeal to young voters.
Another great piece! Highly agree on channelling the anxiety. Lots of hysterical hand-wringing, not a lot of volunteers proportional to that hysteria. When I'm doing zoom phone banking the average volunteer seems like a retiree. Probably not the same crowd sounding off on Twitter/Reddit/Discord.
I don’t do much phone banking, but our team knocked on 1,770 doors. The team’s average age was…old. Not so much hip as hip replacement.
Lol. Probably another group who wasn't terminally online.
Glad y'all got out there, stay safe!
I highly recommend r/VoteDems if you are on Reddit. Much more positive and focused on action. It is infinitely better than r/politics, where everybody feels legalized marijuana and no student loans are all it will take for Democrats to win.
I might check it out. For volunteering, I'd recommend the DNC's Call Crew (worked with them in the Pa-163 special election earlier this year) and Call4Change (who I called with during the midterms and GA runoff)
https://events.democrats.org/event/560970/
The problem we as Democrats have is that we really want people to like us. Which makes *total sense* for Democratic politics. It might raise our anxiety like... all the damn time... but it'll serve us much better as the race heats up than going full fascist and pissing all over general election voters like Republicans seem to be choosing.
Like yesterday I started answering a question, completely seriously, with the words "Well, because we aren't in a cult..."
At the risk of being too cynical (can you really be too cynical in this day and age?) polling is worthless and has been since the end of the landline. Back in the day polls worked because you could get enough people on the phone to overcome most of the statistical issues, giving you a solid sample. That began to erode in the 1990s with ubiquitous Caller ID. It got worse in the 2000s when people stopped having landline phones. How often do you answer your phone when you don't recognize the number?
Read the methodology descriptions from CNN, WSJ, Marist, etc. They do their best, but they're still only able to talk to the very limited number of people who answer random calls or have landlines. I'm guessing the Venn diagram of "Landline Users / Random Call Answerers" and "Cranks Who Spend All Day Watching Fox" is pretty much a perfect "o".
I know there are mathematical models that supposedly offset the resulting bias, but they seem pretty hand-wavy. The utter failure of polling in the past, oh, 5 or 6 cycles pretty much tells the tale.
Are you sure? There were a couple cycles of uneven/poor polls, but the polls in ‘20 and ‘22 were pretty accurate, though there was a lot of misinterpretation the last six weeks of ‘22.
I think one of the things that explain the disconnect between lessening inflation and perceptions of the economy is the cumulative aspect of inflation. It’s 3% on top of the already 6% (or more depending on the item) increase. So yeah, lots of things still seem really expensive and the economy (as in real life finances) can still seem “bad” in spite of positive economic indicators. Not sure how that can be campaigned around except perhaps to stop saying the economy is great.
For those who want a better take on the polls, they can read Jennifer Rubin's piece from the Washington Post here, via a gift link from me: https://wapo.st/44OWQDH
As several other commenters noted Dan, there are things that are FAR more important to cover & discuss right now - for example, the races in Virginia, which could stop any further future political momentum of Glenn "Trumpkin" Youngkin, or the races in New Jersey, both of which are only weeks away, not 14 months away.
And of course, I'll keep beating the drum I do in many places, which is to say beat (not literally, of course) the media at all levels to focus on the stakes of every election over the odds - which effectively boils down to "Ignore the polls."
I'll finish by noting a mantra that was repeated all over the country by Dems during the 2008 Obama/Biden campaign: "No matter what the polls say, always ACT like we're 10 points down."
That attitude lead to a pretty damned amazing 2008 election result, as I recall. It's time to do that again.
And hell - if, by undercutting, ignoring, or destroying the ability of pollsters to put their work ahead of substantive coverage of actions & issues, we end putting some pollsters out of work? Or finally force them to get their field into some form of legitimacy again? All the better.
#FThePolls - ACT like we're 10 points down. Then let's go win as many races as we can, and kick ass.
First, I adore you. Second, 'gift' is a noun; the verb is 'to give.' The media gave us an avalanche , etc. Third, I adore you.
It took me a few days to read this because I am not in a mild panic. I’m in full blown panic. But if I learned anything in 2016, polls are flawed and there is a lot more to them than on the surface. I need to volunteer and work to make sure the Indicted One and his cronies get sent packing.
Thanks for this. I'm a person who is very skeptical about polling simply due to the fact that I don't think polls have the reach they once did. I appreciated your doom loop analysis last week, and as my husband turned on Chuck Todd's last show, we listened to it again. Thankfully Gavin Newsom and Cornell Belcher pushed back and made some points you did last week and today.