Digging into the most recent batch of polls about the race for the Republican nomination
I was sitting here thinking, “ how could they think Trump is the one to beat Biden?” but I keep forgetting that more than half of Republicans truly believe that Trump already beat Biden once. These other candidates are lighting their money on fire but I’m here for it. Looking forward to my especially awful governor, Tiny D, getting his a** handed to him( even more). Enjoy your vacation, Dan!
I grew up around boats. The words “uncharted waters” can and should make any experienced boater cautious and a bit puckered. Proceed slowly, make few assumptions and be ready to react quickly.
We are in uncharted water’s politically. A leading opposition candidate under indictment. Maybe with a guilty verdict by election day. But still with a chance in the Electoral College, though he openly plans to dismantle our democracy. His closest rival, a clumsy politician but an equally committed fascist.
Frankly, I still grapple with the idea that 45% of the country wants to vote for any MAGA GOP candidate. Did earth pass through the tail of a comet sometime in 2015? The past eight years have been bizarre. I realize this doesn’t help, but sometimes you just have to sit back and say, WTF…
Remember the good old days when G W Bush was our worst president ever?
Dan, enjoy time with family.
I always appreciate pieces that help me understand polling better. But I think the moniker "anti-Trump candidates" is doing a lot of work here. Apart from Christie, Hurd, and Hutchinson, the rest of the candidates are Trump apologists at best. So it seems likely that if (when) the apologists drop out, their supporters will not be turning to Christie/Hurd/Hutchinson. Maybe we should think of this more populous segment of the pack as "non-Trump" candidates: MAGA through and through, and hoping to be seen as his heir, not his opponent.
Regardless, the petty person in me is looking forward to Christie on the debate stage taking a scythe to some of these bum-kissers as aggressively as he's going after Trump now.
There's one thing certain about all of the Republican candidates… they're all losers!
It still baffles me why the anti-Trump faction has not gotten together to coalesce around and support a strong candidate, rather than this splinter mess they did 8 years ago. It’s like they have learned nothing.
I have a strong sense that many of the candidates (not Christie or any others critical of the Orange Menace) are auditioning for VP. And maybe except for Pence.
I am no pollster. That said, the UNH poll suggested to me that combining %s for all the other far right/ maga candidates [possibly excluding, for ex., candidate WH] yielded a considerably higher % than the grifter's %. That begs the question: why are they all running? Is this I-n-t-e-n-d-e-d to benefit djt and shirk culpability at the same time? I am unable to see these candidates as "taking the high road", so I do not foresee any following B Sanders' primary 2020 example of withdrawing & endorsing another candidate [not djt in this scenario]. Does anyone else?
We mustn't assume anything about GOP voters.
The only message that seems to broadly resonate is still "Own The Libs". For some voters, as President owning the libs from prison seems to be a delightful prospect rather than an abomination.
Most minds are made up on values to date. Period.
I just spent 2 days with some residents of deeply rural Eastern Oregon and they are SO angry. A white-hot anger just waiting for a release. The biggest problem of the day was not resources but that those resources might be tainted as "woke". They might literally deny helpful resources if those resources are painted in a "woke" brush.
That shit's insane.
We can't let up on positive messaging. We can't let up on being leaders WITH A FUCKING PLAN because THAT is what every single American is starving for.
Dan, enjoy the vaca and try to forget. Listen to the birds. Watch the clouds. Be human for a while again.
Dan- appreciate the more nuanced view in this post away from Trump is a lock on the nomination from previous missives.
Have a wonderful break, Dan. Lord knows you (we all) are going to need it.
But, there is a real probability that Trump will be prosecuted and convicted of a felanie. There may be light at the end of the tunnel.
I hope the holiday is good for the spirit and the family. Have fun, Dan. The polling breakdown was really helpful.
Thank you for breaking this down! I think it's overlooked the point you made about people just wanting to beat Biden, so choosing the "strongest" candidate. I wonder, if we were to get a stronger Democratic candidate in the race, one who could beat Biden-would any of those Republicans also shift their alliances?
Makes me worry even more about no labels. What if all those Republicans decide about the Manchin?