This was very informative. I hear people say they aren’t polling the “right” people, but it is much more about the pollster’s prediction about who will turn out. I do think that since 2022, pollsters have consistently underforecasted the part of the electorate which is really mad about Dobbs.
That last bit is what I cling to. Do the polls tell me about how and where to focus my time?
For a while now the message has been fairly consistent for where I am and the campaign opportunities I have to choose from: Focus on weak Dems, NAVs, and young voters, and be ready to persuade people away from independent/3rd party candidates.
I also have an amateur view that the closer the outcome, the longer we will be battling the MAGA GOP. The more successive wins, and the bigger those wins are, the sooner the careerists, exploiters, and cynical people who have glommed onto MAGA will fall away and look for some other path to self-enrichment and power. So, of course we must win this cycle, but it's also important to win as big as possible in as many places as possible. And polls don't really tell us anything about that.
Never... I mean never... have I been polled. who are the people that pick up phones? How are polls even done anymore? Just saying...
The other thing I kind of see in the questions is... they disapprove of Biden but they will still vote for him. Disapproval is not meaning that he's not their choice. They just want to complain about him. Imagine that? LOL.
No kidding. I'm not happy with the Biden administration's Middle East policy, and I wish Merrick Garland had woken up a little earlier, but does that mean I'm not going to campaign for Biden-Harris? Does it mean I'm going to support hare-brained calls for Biden to stand down? Of course not. (In all fairness, the last U.S. Middle East policy I approved of happened in 1956, when I was 5 years old: the Eisenhower administration opposed the British-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt over the latter's nationalization of the Suez Canal.)
I am going to admit, right here in public, that I have never been fully "happy with" any presidential administration in my life. Of course, some far worse than others. That comes with the territory and political life. Yes--I was more than once dismayed by the Obama Administration--and all the same, I was all in for Obama. He was a once in my lifetime political leader. But nothing is ever perfect. These choices today are clear--like choosing to drink lemonade or paint. The one goal is a multiracial democracy and a democratic community of decency and care. The American Right are authoritarians, choosing a path of White nationalism, racism, hate, division and inequality. American Republicans want minority rule at any price I think--and in the end--that goes beyond Donald Trump.
I can't even *imagine* being 100% behind any presidential administration, or even any particular legislative or gubernatorial candidate, come to think of it. I see election choices as forks in the road. I choose the one that's most likely to lead to where I want to go. Never in my adult life has that fork had an (R) on it. I might admire some third-party candidates, but so far their roads all peter out into dead ends. Not where I want the country to go.
I just finished reading Elie Mystal's ALLOW ME TO RETORT (highly recommended, btw), which points out that a key to GOP minority rule is the Supreme Court -- and that our strategy for blocking the GOP's anti-democratic plan should involve reforming (or re-forming) the Court so that it can't overrule Congress at will. And that goes *way* beyond Donald Trump.
Elie Mystal calls that "tricky" and points to Article III of the Constitution, which "does specify that federal judges serve while in 'good behavior.'" His suggestions include (1) requiring SCOTUS justices "to take 'senior status' after eighteen years on the bench" -- something that's already done in the lower courts -- whereupon a new justice could be appointed; and (2) increasing the number of justices, aka "court expansion" or "court-packing," which isn't forbidden by the Constitution -- decreasing or increasing the number of justices was done several times in the 19th century. Mystal's whole discussion of this -- hell, his whole book -- is very worth reading, but here's a key point: ". . . a Supreme Court willing to protect voting rights and take the Fifteenth Amendment out of cryostasis makes it unlikely that an openly white nationalist party *will* control all of government again."
All of that is true I think--and at least it is better than what we have endured. Although--we should never forget the brutal hypocrisy of Mitch McConnell who broke with precedent and removed the essential guardrails in this entire process by blocking the Obama appointment to the Supreme Court (Garland), and then forcing on the Trump appointment of Barrett. at the last minute. A massive portion of our grief and the threat to a democratic political culture can be laid at his feet. The manipulation of the Court appointment process was a vulgar piece of minority power wielding we will regret for years. It is among a list of things that no matter what happens in the future puts the Senator squarely in the company of the authoritarians who brought us to this crossroads in political history.
But--nothing changes in what we must do--no matter what the polls say today. I think keeping our messages clear and simple is helpful. This week I found that sharing the story on the MAGA meltdown about Taylor and Travis and the Superbowl--really changes the conversation. Get that out there with the skeptics and the young. I was surprised how little young folks knew about it--but once it was shared--they were all in. Taylor Swift was useful in ways I never calculated. Just repeat the Fox News Psy-Ops blast--and the response might be immediate.
Putin will try again; has started already based on Nancy Pelosi comment. And FBI Director James Comey's last minute reopening of investigation into candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a private e-mail server did not help her either. But her emails...!
"this is a very close and winnable race that will come down to less than 100,000 votes across a small handful of states." In that you had been using 50,000 votes as the bellwether in the past, I am happy to see your optimism swell since we are going to win of course and that extra 50k is comforting. We can only hope in late October you state that it is forecast to be a landslide of landslide proportions as Joe Biden will be re-elected.
I just read that in 2020 there were 1,437 public Presidential polls released between Feb 1 and Election Day. I think of them as the red and green channel markers that mark the way as you travel on the Intracoastal Waterway. You use them in the moment to see where a campaign should adjust, but the marker you’re passing right now can’t tell you whether you’ll eventually get to a destination 500 miles away.
I’ve done and read enough market research I my career to know that it’s possible to design any research to get the answer you want and also all research has biases that can skew the results. I’m staying away from polls, keeping my head down and doing what I can to make sure the awful excuse for a human being (the former guy) does not win in November. As a party, the Dems need to focused on the end game - winning.
The polls were wrong in 2016 AND 2020 but we still dissect every poll that gets published because the media is lazy and there’s now an entire media apparatus built around polling even though they’re always wrong. It’s all so dumb. I understand Steve kornacki makes for great television (I quite enjoy him actually), but they’re force feeding folks incomplete if not inaccurate information - the polling samples are weak and making predictions based on bad data is malpractice.
"First, Biden, at minimum, has stabilized, and things may be looking up as people’s views on the economy improve."
I hope "stabilized" means Biden is not sinking further.
We have 9 loooooooooooong months to go.
Hot war possibility is real. The EU is preparing for a world with a 2nd Fat Donny term - and openly planning that a 2nd Fat Donny term means the end of American democracy and there would be a huge snowball effect across global democracies.
That's what the world is thinking right now - the United States is about to give up its position as leader of democratic values, voluntarily and without a civil war.
This also warns Western democracies that they will ultimately fail as the American experiment did.
So yeah, go Biden. I guess.
Any way he could still step aside and let Kamala go? Harris / Newsome?
I was feeling upbeat about things the last few days. I still think women are gonna put Biden over the top. We got the most to lose. Congress and SCOTUS planting a flag in our lady parts. That’s the visual I’m working with.
This isn't rocket science. The polls in general are very clear. Right now, Trump has never been more popular than he is right now. Biden has never been more unpopular than he is right now. He's losing Michigan by over 5 points in both two way and five way polls. It's time for Biden to drop out.
This was very informative. I hear people say they aren’t polling the “right” people, but it is much more about the pollster’s prediction about who will turn out. I do think that since 2022, pollsters have consistently underforecasted the part of the electorate which is really mad about Dobbs.
That last bit is what I cling to. Do the polls tell me about how and where to focus my time?
For a while now the message has been fairly consistent for where I am and the campaign opportunities I have to choose from: Focus on weak Dems, NAVs, and young voters, and be ready to persuade people away from independent/3rd party candidates.
I also have an amateur view that the closer the outcome, the longer we will be battling the MAGA GOP. The more successive wins, and the bigger those wins are, the sooner the careerists, exploiters, and cynical people who have glommed onto MAGA will fall away and look for some other path to self-enrichment and power. So, of course we must win this cycle, but it's also important to win as big as possible in as many places as possible. And polls don't really tell us anything about that.
Never... I mean never... have I been polled. who are the people that pick up phones? How are polls even done anymore? Just saying...
The other thing I kind of see in the questions is... they disapprove of Biden but they will still vote for him. Disapproval is not meaning that he's not their choice. They just want to complain about him. Imagine that? LOL.
No kidding. I'm not happy with the Biden administration's Middle East policy, and I wish Merrick Garland had woken up a little earlier, but does that mean I'm not going to campaign for Biden-Harris? Does it mean I'm going to support hare-brained calls for Biden to stand down? Of course not. (In all fairness, the last U.S. Middle East policy I approved of happened in 1956, when I was 5 years old: the Eisenhower administration opposed the British-French-Israeli invasion of Egypt over the latter's nationalization of the Suez Canal.)
I am going to admit, right here in public, that I have never been fully "happy with" any presidential administration in my life. Of course, some far worse than others. That comes with the territory and political life. Yes--I was more than once dismayed by the Obama Administration--and all the same, I was all in for Obama. He was a once in my lifetime political leader. But nothing is ever perfect. These choices today are clear--like choosing to drink lemonade or paint. The one goal is a multiracial democracy and a democratic community of decency and care. The American Right are authoritarians, choosing a path of White nationalism, racism, hate, division and inequality. American Republicans want minority rule at any price I think--and in the end--that goes beyond Donald Trump.
I can't even *imagine* being 100% behind any presidential administration, or even any particular legislative or gubernatorial candidate, come to think of it. I see election choices as forks in the road. I choose the one that's most likely to lead to where I want to go. Never in my adult life has that fork had an (R) on it. I might admire some third-party candidates, but so far their roads all peter out into dead ends. Not where I want the country to go.
I just finished reading Elie Mystal's ALLOW ME TO RETORT (highly recommended, btw), which points out that a key to GOP minority rule is the Supreme Court -- and that our strategy for blocking the GOP's anti-democratic plan should involve reforming (or re-forming) the Court so that it can't overrule Congress at will. And that goes *way* beyond Donald Trump.
Absolutely right. Term limit is the first place to start.
Elie Mystal calls that "tricky" and points to Article III of the Constitution, which "does specify that federal judges serve while in 'good behavior.'" His suggestions include (1) requiring SCOTUS justices "to take 'senior status' after eighteen years on the bench" -- something that's already done in the lower courts -- whereupon a new justice could be appointed; and (2) increasing the number of justices, aka "court expansion" or "court-packing," which isn't forbidden by the Constitution -- decreasing or increasing the number of justices was done several times in the 19th century. Mystal's whole discussion of this -- hell, his whole book -- is very worth reading, but here's a key point: ". . . a Supreme Court willing to protect voting rights and take the Fifteenth Amendment out of cryostasis makes it unlikely that an openly white nationalist party *will* control all of government again."
All of that is true I think--and at least it is better than what we have endured. Although--we should never forget the brutal hypocrisy of Mitch McConnell who broke with precedent and removed the essential guardrails in this entire process by blocking the Obama appointment to the Supreme Court (Garland), and then forcing on the Trump appointment of Barrett. at the last minute. A massive portion of our grief and the threat to a democratic political culture can be laid at his feet. The manipulation of the Court appointment process was a vulgar piece of minority power wielding we will regret for years. It is among a list of things that no matter what happens in the future puts the Senator squarely in the company of the authoritarians who brought us to this crossroads in political history.
Thanks for the great insights, Dan, as always. One factual clarification--West isn’t a law professor but a theology professor.
Good to know, thanks!
VSA for the win - let's hope and work together on that!
But--nothing changes in what we must do--no matter what the polls say today. I think keeping our messages clear and simple is helpful. This week I found that sharing the story on the MAGA meltdown about Taylor and Travis and the Superbowl--really changes the conversation. Get that out there with the skeptics and the young. I was surprised how little young folks knew about it--but once it was shared--they were all in. Taylor Swift was useful in ways I never calculated. Just repeat the Fox News Psy-Ops blast--and the response might be immediate.
Less worry, more action! If we all do our part we will win.
Two points. 1. "[T]his is a very close and winnable race that will come down to less than 100,000 votes across a small handful of states."
2. Clinton was leading most polls in 2016, but Lost, thanks to Putin.
Efforts should be expended on tracking and eradicating Election Interference from Foreign Nationals, and not on polls.
Putin will try again; has started already based on Nancy Pelosi comment. And FBI Director James Comey's last minute reopening of investigation into candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a private e-mail server did not help her either. But her emails...!
"this is a very close and winnable race that will come down to less than 100,000 votes across a small handful of states." In that you had been using 50,000 votes as the bellwether in the past, I am happy to see your optimism swell since we are going to win of course and that extra 50k is comforting. We can only hope in late October you state that it is forecast to be a landslide of landslide proportions as Joe Biden will be re-elected.
I just read that in 2020 there were 1,437 public Presidential polls released between Feb 1 and Election Day. I think of them as the red and green channel markers that mark the way as you travel on the Intracoastal Waterway. You use them in the moment to see where a campaign should adjust, but the marker you’re passing right now can’t tell you whether you’ll eventually get to a destination 500 miles away.
I’ve done and read enough market research I my career to know that it’s possible to design any research to get the answer you want and also all research has biases that can skew the results. I’m staying away from polls, keeping my head down and doing what I can to make sure the awful excuse for a human being (the former guy) does not win in November. As a party, the Dems need to focused on the end game - winning.
The polls were wrong in 2016 AND 2020 but we still dissect every poll that gets published because the media is lazy and there’s now an entire media apparatus built around polling even though they’re always wrong. It’s all so dumb. I understand Steve kornacki makes for great television (I quite enjoy him actually), but they’re force feeding folks incomplete if not inaccurate information - the polling samples are weak and making predictions based on bad data is malpractice.
"First, Biden, at minimum, has stabilized, and things may be looking up as people’s views on the economy improve."
I hope "stabilized" means Biden is not sinking further.
We have 9 loooooooooooong months to go.
Hot war possibility is real. The EU is preparing for a world with a 2nd Fat Donny term - and openly planning that a 2nd Fat Donny term means the end of American democracy and there would be a huge snowball effect across global democracies.
That's what the world is thinking right now - the United States is about to give up its position as leader of democratic values, voluntarily and without a civil war.
This also warns Western democracies that they will ultimately fail as the American experiment did.
So yeah, go Biden. I guess.
Any way he could still step aside and let Kamala go? Harris / Newsome?
Change the fucking equation? Maybe?
I was feeling upbeat about things the last few days. I still think women are gonna put Biden over the top. We got the most to lose. Congress and SCOTUS planting a flag in our lady parts. That’s the visual I’m working with.
Very helpful. We may hate most of these polls, but we can learn something useful from them that may help tip the result our way.
This isn't rocket science. The polls in general are very clear. Right now, Trump has never been more popular than he is right now. Biden has never been more unpopular than he is right now. He's losing Michigan by over 5 points in both two way and five way polls. It's time for Biden to drop out.