I imagine my daughter’s attitude is pretty consistent throughout her age cohort (Gen Z) - she likes everything Biden has done, hates everything Trump and the right wing represents, will definitely vote for Biden, but isn’t enthused about voting for someone as old as her grandmother.
Again, she will absolutely vote for Biden - but if a pollster called her, she would not register much enthusiasm for Biden.
Trump is likely at or near his ceiling and months of courtroom drama aren’t going to change that. But Biden has room to grow and knows who to target with the right messages. Also we all need to spread positive messages about Biden, not just call out Trump. The voters we need to keep in the coalition know Trump sucks but need a reason to vote for Biden.
If losing Roe, book banning, rewriting history (slavery, not so bad), demonizing and criminalizing gays and trans people, limiting voting, threatening teachers and librarians with firing and even criminal penalties, and a host of other things the GOP are doing--not to mention all of the positive things the Biden admin has accomplished, from infrastructure and caps on the prices of medicine to student debt forgiveness and reducing inflation--aren’t enough to get people to vote for the Dems, oh and that other piece, the absolute threat to our democracy, then I don’t know what will. (“But he’s so old!”)
All these polls tell me is once again how ill informed, spoiled, and stupid Americans are. Voting third party and staying home is what got us Trump in the first place. The good news is that the GOP is going to double down on criminalizing abortion and limiting rights. Instead of focusing on polls which have been suspect for a few elections now, focus on voter trends, like the elections in WI and OH. Here in PA we are already gearing up for 2024 and the upcoming local elections are part of that.
Hey Dan, why don’t you write a few columns on the accomplishments of the Dems (and offer insights from your experience on the ground and in the war room), such as the strategies WI used to get people to the polls, or a host of other things that are actually positive and actionable.
I’m not asking for Pollyanna, but looking at a poll this far out when so much can and will happen before Election Day just feeds anxiety. Instead, get people geared up for the fight ahead. Thanks for reminding that it is all of us, not just the monolithic “Dems” who must be involved.
Yes, I totally agree -- but we must not be complacent, which is what this polling data tells us. And yes, polls this early out are not so reliable, but they give us an indication of what people are thinking. Getting into the heads of these low info or non voters helps me as a phone banker for example...AND seeing the resistance to Biden just tells me that we live in a world of social media, the internet, images, youth, charisma, cool music, etc., etc -- so much superficial imagery and we need to figure out how to fight back. Maybe Biden should surround himself with young people -- Victor Chi is a great ambassador and doing fantastic work -- and Biden himself should be seen doing cool things (he rides a bike - that's good!), have upbeat music -- we need to feel more energy with Biden.
You took the words out of my mouth and then some. I've been humming Eileen McGann's song "I guess we're all too stupid for democracy" and reminding myself that she comes to the conclusion ". . . but all of the alternatives are worse." Here's the link for anyone who needs it: https://youtu.be/uG1Sq72bhvg?si=u2mhEEo0gVXRCwxS.
Follow Simon Rosenberg's Hopium Chronicles -- this is his message exactly! I phone bank with Sister District (Blue States helping Red states at the state level), as is the States Project. This is a time for "No Activist Left Behind", all hands on deck. Mobilize your networks and make sure everyone -- especially Gen Z & Millennials -- understand the stakes of the 2024 election. YES, we can do this!
Biden is doing amazing things. Trouble is... that is the expectation. He is meeting the expectations and that does not make news. He ... rightly so... is not entering the culture wars and for that reason he is not able to break into the news cycle. Very few stories break out ... like negotiating RX prices. It's huge. But not newsworthy. And that is the sad state of our media consumption. But when push comes to shove... who is really going to think that Trump will do better? I get that his voters will never shake loose... but they are not the majority of that party anymore.
How impactful is it to stress that you’re voting for the team? At least anecdotally, voters in my life (young and old, of various backgrounds) who are less than ecstatic about President Biden AND Vice President Harris seem responsive to the notion that a vote for these two is a vote for the competence and compassion that surrounds them. That feels like more of an approach for us regular joes to take and the crux of the argument accepts the notion that this campaign is indeed a suboptimal political situation, but is there anything there for national messaging?
I believe enthusiasm breeds enthusiasm and plays against the media narrative that no Dem really wants Joe back. The political press didn’t like him in the first place and they still don’t; they probably dislike him more because of the competency and the fact that he isn’t (more of from their POV) a blubbering idiot. They are desperate for the bitchy gossip and infighting and they just don’t get that like they did during the Trump years (see the latest NBC piece talking about...2028!).
No use lamenting that the young are disengaged, mostly, from politics, consume media differently from their elders (anyone over 30), but is that any different from my own “Don’t trust anyone over 30” generation of the 60s and early 70s? Not much, I expect. The issues they’ll respond to are Roe, Healthcare, Housing costs, and—though this will get no traction with Biden—de-scheduling/legalizing marijuana.
Find messengers that can effectively make those points. Buttigieg and others.
I have read several comments about why young people might not be on board, and I have commented before about spending some time in a different media market when I visited my sister in Spokane - there is no touting of the good work Biden et al are doing there. The mayor of Spokane, Nadine Woodward, was recently praying on stage with Matt Shea, the former rep from the area, and a known far-right Christian Nationalist (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Shea). So I would want to see local ads that show how the administration is benefiting the community. We are getting a ton of much-needed roadwork done in my area, and Spokane is too. Perhaps really promoting these improvements on a granular level in addition to online and nationally might help.
As someone who spends a great deal of time on Tiktok I can tell you exactly why Biden is losing young people: his decision la on both the Willow and Mountain Valley Pipeline projects. I can’t overstate the feelings of rage and betrayal I saw in my comments after those decisions, and they haven’t abated at all with time. I’ve told everyone I know with contacts at the White House, and I’ll say it here, too, if he wants the youth vote back he needs to reverse those decisions. Period.
This isn’t a black and white issue and young people need to understand that sometimes you cannot get your way no matter how right it is or how much you wish it. So they’d rather throw their vote away, see Trump--who signed this deal--back in the WH and the GOP take control of Congress, making everything worse for their lives. Got it.
From CNN about the Willow project:
“The Biden administration felt its hands were tied with the project because Conoco has existing and valid leases in the area, two government sources told CNN. They determined that legally, courts wouldn’t have allowed them to fully reject or drastically reduce the project, the sources said. If they had pursued those options, they could have faced steep fines in addition to legal action from ConocoPhillips.
“During his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden vowed to end new oil and gas drilling on public lands and waters – which he initially carried out as part of an early executive order.
“However, the drilling pause was struck down by a federal judge in 2021.”
I'm not saying it's logical. I am fully aware of the nuances and the political exigencies. I'm just reporting back what I hear every day on TikTok. Young people tend to think in black and white, and to them Joe Biden made a huge promise in order to get their votes and then broke it. I work every day there to try to emphasize the incredible progress we HAVE made, and to help make clear that, while not perfect, Biden has been an astonishingly good president on climate. But that's not how most young people see it and we can either shrug and say "they just don't get it" or we can try to win the election by somehow re-earning their trust. Not sure how we do that while still initiating new drilling projects.
It is hard to reason with unreasonable people. Whether they are 20 or 70. If young people are incapable of weighing pros and cons, not sure you can do anything but keep trying to talk to them.
This reminds me of 2016 when 10,000+ Democratic voters in Fl failed to vote for Clinton and left the top of the ballot blank. Reasons given in exit polling were “she’s too cozy with big corporations”, or “she’s too quick with military solutions” or echoes of Bill’s personal issues. So we got Trump. Thanks so much, and thank you for helping us avoid corporate contamination. Have you ever heard the word ‘priority’?
I don't know how we re-earn their trust, either, Jessica. :( I wish I knew of a way to convince younger voters that, as Nancy Pelosi had quoted often, we can't let perfect be the enemy of the good.
I've once heard it argued from a third-party voter that we shouldn't vote for the "lesser evil" because choosing one of the two major candidates in a political race means we still get some form of evil. Well, I'm all about harm reduction, and indirectly choosing the *greater* evil by abstaining or throwing away a vote to a spoiler results in guaranteed more harm for the most vulnerable among us. As Jim Wright famously wrote during the Trump years, "LESS EVIL" sounds like the far better option.
Along with the Willow decision, Biden added protection of lands and waters in Alaska. I see this protection as important mitigation for the drilling project that is rarely mentioned. This is a practical way to deal with a project approval that could not be avoided for reasons stated elsewhere in this thread. See https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/13/politics/willow-project-alaska-oil-biden-approval-climate/index.html "In all, the administration will move to protect up to 16 million acres from future fossil fuel leasing. The protections will extend to the Teshekpuk Lake, Utukok Uplands, Colville River, Kasegaluk Lagoon and Peard Bay special areas – places that are important habitats for grizzly bears, polar bears, caribou and migratory birds."
And the extended protections at the Grand Canyon, which they have tried to exploit for minerals for decades. If they refuse to listen to reason they are no better than MAGA. That doesn’t mean Dems shouldn’t try to reach them, but I just have no patience for people who refuse to see beyond one thing.
I just had this very conversation with a young person - a very smart young person - a couple days ago. She is no fool, she is still going to vote Dem. But, as she put it, it just got a lot harder for her to advocate to other young voters authentically. Another thing that is absolutely tone deaf is the Dem response to a recent GOP "attack" that Biden has shut down domestic oil production. Shouting that domestic oil production under Biden is bigger than it was under Trump is not the vote-getter some appear to think, including people who should know better (looking at you Senator Chris Murphy). The Biden campaign and the Dems writ large really need to push an aggressive, coherent climate message starting yesterday.
While we wish that the move to electric vehicles was faster or had started earlier, the fact is that we have about 265 million fossil fuel powered vehicles in the US today. We still have to provide fuel at a reasonable price and high availability while we manage the transition. That transition may be largely finished as today’s young voters approach retirement age. So our challenge is to figure out how to keep impatient voters engaged through a very long horizon. We can’t afford to lose many of them. Actually, the post following this one, from Sonoma Susie, is an excellent point.
What’s the media “ground” game for Biden and Dems? Are there people organizing a slow burn to massive in your face marketing on social media? I don’t want to see another Instagram ad asking me to donate money so I can meet President Biden and President Obama. I’m 44 years old, and that sounds awesome to me. But any 22 year old is going to scroll right past an ad like that. Certainly taking advantage of the viral pro-democracy celebrity videos that show up every once in a while is nice. But there needs to be a serious strategy utilizing social media to reach the voters who are less enthusiastic, and/or less likely to vote. I haven’t seen it yet. Maybe I’m too old to have it in my feed? But I hope someone has a plan. Early voting, turn out, and turn out. That’s the only way we win.
Always deferring to your research and analysis, I cannot share your on balance "positive" perspective. Any R victory in '24 will end governance, civil liberties, society, and well-being. Time to ex-pat, before we are prevented from doing so.
FFS throwing up your hands and leaving isn’t the answer. Europe, too, is plagued by the rise of RW authoritarianism and Britain is a mess. Australia, too, is contending with RW issues. And then there is India...
I agree. For heaven’s sake, in 1940 Great Britain faced Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Tojo, Stalin, and many other countries that declared themselves neutral. Aren’t we all glad the Brits didn’t just decide to expatriate? And, as you point out, where?
Appreciate Dan’s analysis, but also note that the indictments are Helping Trump because he’s in the news and talked about constantly, including here and on PSA. Just how he likes it! Would be more energizing if we could actually discuss message and strategy. Many of us are in the trenches talking to voters and we need help and support. For instance, how to effectively rebut the Age and Kamala Is Not Ready critiques? Personally I need to save my energy for doing the work.
Speaking as a member smack dab in the middle of the 30-44 crowd, does anyone think the 16% of us that are thinking third party or of not voting at all has anything to do with student loans? Biden made promises there that created this hope that we'd be lifted up from under some of that crushing debt and then changed the amounts after being elected. Yes, the courts have blocked some of his initiatives, but it doesn't seem to be a priority.
Incredible that we're in this position. Decades of work by our robber baron oligarchs, Rupert Murdoch, and Democrats' inability to play the long game brought us here. Along with unleashing K Street, crushing unions, gerrymandering, and Citizens United.
I imagine my daughter’s attitude is pretty consistent throughout her age cohort (Gen Z) - she likes everything Biden has done, hates everything Trump and the right wing represents, will definitely vote for Biden, but isn’t enthused about voting for someone as old as her grandmother.
Again, she will absolutely vote for Biden - but if a pollster called her, she would not register much enthusiasm for Biden.
Trump is likely at or near his ceiling and months of courtroom drama aren’t going to change that. But Biden has room to grow and knows who to target with the right messages. Also we all need to spread positive messages about Biden, not just call out Trump. The voters we need to keep in the coalition know Trump sucks but need a reason to vote for Biden.
If losing Roe, book banning, rewriting history (slavery, not so bad), demonizing and criminalizing gays and trans people, limiting voting, threatening teachers and librarians with firing and even criminal penalties, and a host of other things the GOP are doing--not to mention all of the positive things the Biden admin has accomplished, from infrastructure and caps on the prices of medicine to student debt forgiveness and reducing inflation--aren’t enough to get people to vote for the Dems, oh and that other piece, the absolute threat to our democracy, then I don’t know what will. (“But he’s so old!”)
All these polls tell me is once again how ill informed, spoiled, and stupid Americans are. Voting third party and staying home is what got us Trump in the first place. The good news is that the GOP is going to double down on criminalizing abortion and limiting rights. Instead of focusing on polls which have been suspect for a few elections now, focus on voter trends, like the elections in WI and OH. Here in PA we are already gearing up for 2024 and the upcoming local elections are part of that.
Hey Dan, why don’t you write a few columns on the accomplishments of the Dems (and offer insights from your experience on the ground and in the war room), such as the strategies WI used to get people to the polls, or a host of other things that are actually positive and actionable.
I’m not asking for Pollyanna, but looking at a poll this far out when so much can and will happen before Election Day just feeds anxiety. Instead, get people geared up for the fight ahead. Thanks for reminding that it is all of us, not just the monolithic “Dems” who must be involved.
Yes, I totally agree -- but we must not be complacent, which is what this polling data tells us. And yes, polls this early out are not so reliable, but they give us an indication of what people are thinking. Getting into the heads of these low info or non voters helps me as a phone banker for example...AND seeing the resistance to Biden just tells me that we live in a world of social media, the internet, images, youth, charisma, cool music, etc., etc -- so much superficial imagery and we need to figure out how to fight back. Maybe Biden should surround himself with young people -- Victor Chi is a great ambassador and doing fantastic work -- and Biden himself should be seen doing cool things (he rides a bike - that's good!), have upbeat music -- we need to feel more energy with Biden.
Oops - I meant Victor Shi of Voters of Tomorrow is a great ambassador.
You took the words out of my mouth and then some. I've been humming Eileen McGann's song "I guess we're all too stupid for democracy" and reminding myself that she comes to the conclusion ". . . but all of the alternatives are worse." Here's the link for anyone who needs it: https://youtu.be/uG1Sq72bhvg?si=u2mhEEo0gVXRCwxS.
Follow Simon Rosenberg's Hopium Chronicles -- this is his message exactly! I phone bank with Sister District (Blue States helping Red states at the state level), as is the States Project. This is a time for "No Activist Left Behind", all hands on deck. Mobilize your networks and make sure everyone -- especially Gen Z & Millennials -- understand the stakes of the 2024 election. YES, we can do this!
Biden is doing amazing things. Trouble is... that is the expectation. He is meeting the expectations and that does not make news. He ... rightly so... is not entering the culture wars and for that reason he is not able to break into the news cycle. Very few stories break out ... like negotiating RX prices. It's huge. But not newsworthy. And that is the sad state of our media consumption. But when push comes to shove... who is really going to think that Trump will do better? I get that his voters will never shake loose... but they are not the majority of that party anymore.
How impactful is it to stress that you’re voting for the team? At least anecdotally, voters in my life (young and old, of various backgrounds) who are less than ecstatic about President Biden AND Vice President Harris seem responsive to the notion that a vote for these two is a vote for the competence and compassion that surrounds them. That feels like more of an approach for us regular joes to take and the crux of the argument accepts the notion that this campaign is indeed a suboptimal political situation, but is there anything there for national messaging?
I believe enthusiasm breeds enthusiasm and plays against the media narrative that no Dem really wants Joe back. The political press didn’t like him in the first place and they still don’t; they probably dislike him more because of the competency and the fact that he isn’t (more of from their POV) a blubbering idiot. They are desperate for the bitchy gossip and infighting and they just don’t get that like they did during the Trump years (see the latest NBC piece talking about...2028!).
No use lamenting that the young are disengaged, mostly, from politics, consume media differently from their elders (anyone over 30), but is that any different from my own “Don’t trust anyone over 30” generation of the 60s and early 70s? Not much, I expect. The issues they’ll respond to are Roe, Healthcare, Housing costs, and—though this will get no traction with Biden—de-scheduling/legalizing marijuana.
Find messengers that can effectively make those points. Buttigieg and others.
I have read several comments about why young people might not be on board, and I have commented before about spending some time in a different media market when I visited my sister in Spokane - there is no touting of the good work Biden et al are doing there. The mayor of Spokane, Nadine Woodward, was recently praying on stage with Matt Shea, the former rep from the area, and a known far-right Christian Nationalist (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Shea). So I would want to see local ads that show how the administration is benefiting the community. We are getting a ton of much-needed roadwork done in my area, and Spokane is too. Perhaps really promoting these improvements on a granular level in addition to online and nationally might help.
As someone who spends a great deal of time on Tiktok I can tell you exactly why Biden is losing young people: his decision la on both the Willow and Mountain Valley Pipeline projects. I can’t overstate the feelings of rage and betrayal I saw in my comments after those decisions, and they haven’t abated at all with time. I’ve told everyone I know with contacts at the White House, and I’ll say it here, too, if he wants the youth vote back he needs to reverse those decisions. Period.
This isn’t a black and white issue and young people need to understand that sometimes you cannot get your way no matter how right it is or how much you wish it. So they’d rather throw their vote away, see Trump--who signed this deal--back in the WH and the GOP take control of Congress, making everything worse for their lives. Got it.
From CNN about the Willow project:
“The Biden administration felt its hands were tied with the project because Conoco has existing and valid leases in the area, two government sources told CNN. They determined that legally, courts wouldn’t have allowed them to fully reject or drastically reduce the project, the sources said. If they had pursued those options, they could have faced steep fines in addition to legal action from ConocoPhillips.
“During his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden vowed to end new oil and gas drilling on public lands and waters – which he initially carried out as part of an early executive order.
“However, the drilling pause was struck down by a federal judge in 2021.”
I'm not saying it's logical. I am fully aware of the nuances and the political exigencies. I'm just reporting back what I hear every day on TikTok. Young people tend to think in black and white, and to them Joe Biden made a huge promise in order to get their votes and then broke it. I work every day there to try to emphasize the incredible progress we HAVE made, and to help make clear that, while not perfect, Biden has been an astonishingly good president on climate. But that's not how most young people see it and we can either shrug and say "they just don't get it" or we can try to win the election by somehow re-earning their trust. Not sure how we do that while still initiating new drilling projects.
It is hard to reason with unreasonable people. Whether they are 20 or 70. If young people are incapable of weighing pros and cons, not sure you can do anything but keep trying to talk to them.
This reminds me of 2016 when 10,000+ Democratic voters in Fl failed to vote for Clinton and left the top of the ballot blank. Reasons given in exit polling were “she’s too cozy with big corporations”, or “she’s too quick with military solutions” or echoes of Bill’s personal issues. So we got Trump. Thanks so much, and thank you for helping us avoid corporate contamination. Have you ever heard the word ‘priority’?
I don't know how we re-earn their trust, either, Jessica. :( I wish I knew of a way to convince younger voters that, as Nancy Pelosi had quoted often, we can't let perfect be the enemy of the good.
I've once heard it argued from a third-party voter that we shouldn't vote for the "lesser evil" because choosing one of the two major candidates in a political race means we still get some form of evil. Well, I'm all about harm reduction, and indirectly choosing the *greater* evil by abstaining or throwing away a vote to a spoiler results in guaranteed more harm for the most vulnerable among us. As Jim Wright famously wrote during the Trump years, "LESS EVIL" sounds like the far better option.
Along with the Willow decision, Biden added protection of lands and waters in Alaska. I see this protection as important mitigation for the drilling project that is rarely mentioned. This is a practical way to deal with a project approval that could not be avoided for reasons stated elsewhere in this thread. See https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/13/politics/willow-project-alaska-oil-biden-approval-climate/index.html "In all, the administration will move to protect up to 16 million acres from future fossil fuel leasing. The protections will extend to the Teshekpuk Lake, Utukok Uplands, Colville River, Kasegaluk Lagoon and Peard Bay special areas – places that are important habitats for grizzly bears, polar bears, caribou and migratory birds."
And the extended protections at the Grand Canyon, which they have tried to exploit for minerals for decades. If they refuse to listen to reason they are no better than MAGA. That doesn’t mean Dems shouldn’t try to reach them, but I just have no patience for people who refuse to see beyond one thing.
I just had this very conversation with a young person - a very smart young person - a couple days ago. She is no fool, she is still going to vote Dem. But, as she put it, it just got a lot harder for her to advocate to other young voters authentically. Another thing that is absolutely tone deaf is the Dem response to a recent GOP "attack" that Biden has shut down domestic oil production. Shouting that domestic oil production under Biden is bigger than it was under Trump is not the vote-getter some appear to think, including people who should know better (looking at you Senator Chris Murphy). The Biden campaign and the Dems writ large really need to push an aggressive, coherent climate message starting yesterday.
While we wish that the move to electric vehicles was faster or had started earlier, the fact is that we have about 265 million fossil fuel powered vehicles in the US today. We still have to provide fuel at a reasonable price and high availability while we manage the transition. That transition may be largely finished as today’s young voters approach retirement age. So our challenge is to figure out how to keep impatient voters engaged through a very long horizon. We can’t afford to lose many of them. Actually, the post following this one, from Sonoma Susie, is an excellent point.
Do you have a sense of how many of those young people are white?
I don't. But I'd assume lots of them, and believe me I'm aware that it's a problem of privilege. I try to remind them of that any way I can.
What’s the media “ground” game for Biden and Dems? Are there people organizing a slow burn to massive in your face marketing on social media? I don’t want to see another Instagram ad asking me to donate money so I can meet President Biden and President Obama. I’m 44 years old, and that sounds awesome to me. But any 22 year old is going to scroll right past an ad like that. Certainly taking advantage of the viral pro-democracy celebrity videos that show up every once in a while is nice. But there needs to be a serious strategy utilizing social media to reach the voters who are less enthusiastic, and/or less likely to vote. I haven’t seen it yet. Maybe I’m too old to have it in my feed? But I hope someone has a plan. Early voting, turn out, and turn out. That’s the only way we win.
Always deferring to your research and analysis, I cannot share your on balance "positive" perspective. Any R victory in '24 will end governance, civil liberties, society, and well-being. Time to ex-pat, before we are prevented from doing so.
FFS throwing up your hands and leaving isn’t the answer. Europe, too, is plagued by the rise of RW authoritarianism and Britain is a mess. Australia, too, is contending with RW issues. And then there is India...
I agree. For heaven’s sake, in 1940 Great Britain faced Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Tojo, Stalin, and many other countries that declared themselves neutral. Aren’t we all glad the Brits didn’t just decide to expatriate? And, as you point out, where?
Appreciate Dan’s analysis, but also note that the indictments are Helping Trump because he’s in the news and talked about constantly, including here and on PSA. Just how he likes it! Would be more energizing if we could actually discuss message and strategy. Many of us are in the trenches talking to voters and we need help and support. For instance, how to effectively rebut the Age and Kamala Is Not Ready critiques? Personally I need to save my energy for doing the work.
Speaking as a member smack dab in the middle of the 30-44 crowd, does anyone think the 16% of us that are thinking third party or of not voting at all has anything to do with student loans? Biden made promises there that created this hope that we'd be lifted up from under some of that crushing debt and then changed the amounts after being elected. Yes, the courts have blocked some of his initiatives, but it doesn't seem to be a priority.
Incredible that we're in this position. Decades of work by our robber baron oligarchs, Rupert Murdoch, and Democrats' inability to play the long game brought us here. Along with unleashing K Street, crushing unions, gerrymandering, and Citizens United.