I really appreciate the stepped-up pace of publication in recent weeks, Dan. I’m sure you’re beyond exhausted, but your readers are thankful for your insightful words. Perhaps the most memorable thing in today’s newsletter is about time as a non-renewable, finite resource — once it’s gone, it’s gone forever. That’s an insight that goes far beyond campaigning.
I'm really grateful for all your insights. We have only 78 more days until Election Day. There is a lot of work all of us need to do for GOTV in what ever way we can. I could not even read news before Biden gracefully withdrew. It's all changed. I watch the Harris - Walz rallies and read credible news on Substack. In addition, I'm sleeping better. I'll actually watch some of the convention speakers.
Returning from our beach vacation and driving through rural eastern North Carolina, my husband and I noticed the almost total lack of trump signs. This is a very significant change from the 2016 and 2020 campaigns. We were wondering if voters had simply checked out, or if the trump campaign is just not as exciting to rural voters as it has been in the past.
NC is a battleground state this year. Their candidate for governor is a real terror (a Black uber-MAGA, Mark Robinson). Ds have a terrific party chair (Anderson Clayton). Simon Rosenberg's "Hopium" community has channeled tremendous energy (funding and volunteering) into the state. It is really in play, especially since the change on the D ticket. We could win it (including electing the D gov).
Keep it simple. “We’re not going back.” Make America smile again. Where fair and timely, mock an ugly old crazy-sounding loser. Stay out of the policy weeds. Let The Big Bore do the heavy lifting—by lying so outrageously and consistently that even the faithful tune him out for something more interesting and advantageous.
Cut yourself some slack Dan – it took you a while to figure it out? In the current political cycle that means a week or two – which formerly would have been months or more!
Truisms:
• Time is finite and money renewable…in all aspects of life. I live my life this way;
• Humans crave variety. Trump is like the same Cheeto we’ve been consuming for a decade. Harris/Walz are a brand new, promising and healthy item for us to learn about;
• Novelty is short lived…but 3 months of Harris/Walz is unlikely to lose its luster – compared to the more typical 2-4 year cycle, where everything is stale at the end.
By the way, who is Trump? You mean the old strange guy?
As a volunteer canvasser in FL, I’m aware that Dems have some paid canvassers (as always) that work for various campaigns and the Party organization. But the MAGA canvassers all appear to be working for outside organizations. My b-i-l in MI tells me he’s seeing the same thing, mostly younger people, some in arguments with voters.
I know paid canvassers are a thing, but never saw (or maybe just never noticed) canvassers almost all paid, all inexperienced, all hired by outside groups. Is this a new practice? Or am I just seeing an anomaly in my corner of Fl?
I've read multiple reports that the GOP is outsourcing the voter outreach to outside groups with heavy reliance on paid canvassers. Old school GOP locals have fretted that they don't know what they're doing. (I also hope there is a lot of pocket-lining going on, hurting them even more.)
Thank you for your wise and insightful “take” on this campaign. I do believe it is the respite we all needed after 9 years of dread and mental exhaustion. This campaign seems incredibly astute, and I am hopeful that the momentum will carry us to a decisive victory.
*** Mobilizing Voters versus Mobilizing Mobilizers ***
You make a really great point in this post. Messaging to voters needs to aim at what is most important to voters.
Nevertheless, you also note that "we can never lose sight of the existential threat Trump poses to democracy" and "Yes, every speaker will mention Trump. There will be plenty of discussion of January 6th and Project 2025. Harris will contrast her plans with Trump’s."
Those of us who are volunteers and activists, who have a clear picture of how terrifying the T/R trifecta would be, still are energized by the imperative to prevent that dystopia from occurring. Even for us, the sheer gargantuan magnitude of the Project 2025 plan makes it difficult to absorb, and it makes the notion of "threats to democracy" too abstract because the specifics are too voluminous.
In voter messaging, I expect the contrast at the convention will be made topic-by-topic: rather than try to cover the entire encyclopedic breadth of Project 2025 in a single gulp, it makes sense to find individual concerns that voters have, and then find the specific threat in Project 2025 and contrast it with Kamala's vision for the future. Different voters have different priorities, and this engagement strategy can also be customized to individual voters when approaching them individually (canvassing, phone calls, even texting).
While we're on the topic of threats to democracy, though, we should pay attention to an issue that has gotten virtually no broad visibility: the threat of a Runaway Constitutional Convention if Rs were to gain control of both the House and Senate.
Congress has sole authority to decide how to interpret state calls for a con-con (president is not involved, and SCOTUS would recuse from anything it considers political, outside a judicial jurisdiction), and Rs are aiming for a rogue interpretation if they gain power in 2025, and will find a way to call a con-con.
Once a convention gets going, even Congress has no authority over it, and it is self-structuring in terms of rules and topics. Given the advantage R states have in their own trifectas (to appoint delegates), R delegates would simply control the entire convention and D delegates would not have veto power. They could address any amendment that they want, regardless of any purported constraints in the state calls. This is the definition of a "runaway" convention, and it is all but certain to happen if *any* con-con gets underway under any stated purposes. All bets are off.
The very DNA of our constitutional system is at stake here. Imagine if they decided to repeal the 22nd Amendment (presidential term limits), and maybe make presidential elections discretionary, combined with locking-in the SCOTUS ruling on immunity that creates an Imperial Presidency. President = King for Life?
While Project 2025 creates an imperative to win the Presidency, a Runaway Constitutional Convention creates an imperative to win Congress, above and beyond the need to have a D trifecta in order for Kamala to get anything done while in office.
This stuff is way too wonky for most voters to absorb or care about. But it should be a five-alarm fire for those of us called to mobilize those voters, whether D-coalition GOTV, or swing-voter persuasion (especially in the battleground states). So, when talking to voters, talk to them in ways that align with where they are. But when talking to volunteers and activists, I see no reason to let up on the threats to democracy. Just make clear that our "meta-motivations" may not be the same as a voter's individual motivations (unless they themselves broach the subject in a conversation).
The threat to democracy could not be more existential, and I think we should continue to embrace that ourselves, every day we are engaged in winning these elections, regardless of what the messaging strategy is to the voters we aim to mobilize.
Addendum: even the terms of ratification could be changed in the convention.
Back in 1787, when the "original" con-con happened in Philadelphia, it was convened in order to amend the Articles of Confederation. The AoC required unanimous ratification by all 13 colonies/states, but the convention basically threw out the entire AoC and rewrote a new constitution from scratch. In the process they decided that 2/3 would suffice (9 out of 13) for ratification. There was no higher authority to say they couldn't do that.
The same is true today. So don't rely on "38 states" to ratify. They could choose whatever proportion gets them within the R-trifecta states. Even just a simple majority, if it comes to that.
Yes, that might cause a genuine constitutional crisis, if blue states object and refuse to recognize the results of a con-con. But plutocrats always think in terms of "in crisis, opportunity"...
I.am.here.for.this. PLEASE, I am begging, can we talk about ANYTHING other than trump. Love everything about the Harris/Walz campaign so far. Really hope they stay brave and edgy
It's so wonderful to focus on a future that includes all of the people this time. Always focusing on battling the tRump minions makes one weary and contributes to PTSD.
“The race is now about the future, and about hope and joy, as opposed to the fear that dominated politics since Trump arrived on the scene.”
I can’t tell you how relieved I am at this and I’m sure there are a lot of Americans who agree. The malignant narcissist trump has sucked the oxygen out of the media air for too long. We’ve had enough! Harris-Walz are framing their campaign beautifully. I’m so grateful.
Meanwhile I’m writing postcards, phone banking and will be canvassing soon. ACTION. FOWARD.
I've been subscribed to this new I've I've I've been receiving this newsletter for a little over a week now and I can't thank you enough, Dan, for your insight. What a refreshing way to look at the political scene over the next few months. We don't have to talk about that man all the time. There's other things we can talk about and think about and hope about. Thanks so much for making that clear in this newsletter!
It's even in Chicago, just like the crazy time in 1968.
Lots of pundits, reporters, journalists from all over the world are suddenly interested in listening to the speeches (and a company paid jaunt to the Windy City!).
Like Bernie, I'm listening.
Not cheering. Need to hear something other than identity politics and "We're not Biden OR Fat Donny!"
Show me a real move, or we're just playing with the margins again and nothing, I mean it, nothing is actually changing.
EDIT: OMG, saw a great nickname for Musk far better than my own: Space Karen! I love that. Space Karen it is!
I really appreciate the stepped-up pace of publication in recent weeks, Dan. I’m sure you’re beyond exhausted, but your readers are thankful for your insightful words. Perhaps the most memorable thing in today’s newsletter is about time as a non-renewable, finite resource — once it’s gone, it’s gone forever. That’s an insight that goes far beyond campaigning.
💯
I'm really grateful for all your insights. We have only 78 more days until Election Day. There is a lot of work all of us need to do for GOTV in what ever way we can. I could not even read news before Biden gracefully withdrew. It's all changed. I watch the Harris - Walz rallies and read credible news on Substack. In addition, I'm sleeping better. I'll actually watch some of the convention speakers.
TRUMP: Be very afraid of Immigrants and The Radical Left's Communist Agenda!
BIDEN: Be very afraid of Trump and his Project 2025!
HARRIS: Here's what Tim and I plan to do for you.
Returning from our beach vacation and driving through rural eastern North Carolina, my husband and I noticed the almost total lack of trump signs. This is a very significant change from the 2016 and 2020 campaigns. We were wondering if voters had simply checked out, or if the trump campaign is just not as exciting to rural voters as it has been in the past.
NC is a battleground state this year. Their candidate for governor is a real terror (a Black uber-MAGA, Mark Robinson). Ds have a terrific party chair (Anderson Clayton). Simon Rosenberg's "Hopium" community has channeled tremendous energy (funding and volunteering) into the state. It is really in play, especially since the change on the D ticket. We could win it (including electing the D gov).
Keep it simple. “We’re not going back.” Make America smile again. Where fair and timely, mock an ugly old crazy-sounding loser. Stay out of the policy weeds. Let The Big Bore do the heavy lifting—by lying so outrageously and consistently that even the faithful tune him out for something more interesting and advantageous.
Astute and why I subscribe.
Cut yourself some slack Dan – it took you a while to figure it out? In the current political cycle that means a week or two – which formerly would have been months or more!
Truisms:
• Time is finite and money renewable…in all aspects of life. I live my life this way;
• Humans crave variety. Trump is like the same Cheeto we’ve been consuming for a decade. Harris/Walz are a brand new, promising and healthy item for us to learn about;
• Novelty is short lived…but 3 months of Harris/Walz is unlikely to lose its luster – compared to the more typical 2-4 year cycle, where everything is stale at the end.
By the way, who is Trump? You mean the old strange guy?
As a volunteer canvasser in FL, I’m aware that Dems have some paid canvassers (as always) that work for various campaigns and the Party organization. But the MAGA canvassers all appear to be working for outside organizations. My b-i-l in MI tells me he’s seeing the same thing, mostly younger people, some in arguments with voters.
I know paid canvassers are a thing, but never saw (or maybe just never noticed) canvassers almost all paid, all inexperienced, all hired by outside groups. Is this a new practice? Or am I just seeing an anomaly in my corner of Fl?
I've read multiple reports that the GOP is outsourcing the voter outreach to outside groups with heavy reliance on paid canvassers. Old school GOP locals have fretted that they don't know what they're doing. (I also hope there is a lot of pocket-lining going on, hurting them even more.)
Thank you for your wise and insightful “take” on this campaign. I do believe it is the respite we all needed after 9 years of dread and mental exhaustion. This campaign seems incredibly astute, and I am hopeful that the momentum will carry us to a decisive victory.
*** Mobilizing Voters versus Mobilizing Mobilizers ***
You make a really great point in this post. Messaging to voters needs to aim at what is most important to voters.
Nevertheless, you also note that "we can never lose sight of the existential threat Trump poses to democracy" and "Yes, every speaker will mention Trump. There will be plenty of discussion of January 6th and Project 2025. Harris will contrast her plans with Trump’s."
Those of us who are volunteers and activists, who have a clear picture of how terrifying the T/R trifecta would be, still are energized by the imperative to prevent that dystopia from occurring. Even for us, the sheer gargantuan magnitude of the Project 2025 plan makes it difficult to absorb, and it makes the notion of "threats to democracy" too abstract because the specifics are too voluminous.
In voter messaging, I expect the contrast at the convention will be made topic-by-topic: rather than try to cover the entire encyclopedic breadth of Project 2025 in a single gulp, it makes sense to find individual concerns that voters have, and then find the specific threat in Project 2025 and contrast it with Kamala's vision for the future. Different voters have different priorities, and this engagement strategy can also be customized to individual voters when approaching them individually (canvassing, phone calls, even texting).
While we're on the topic of threats to democracy, though, we should pay attention to an issue that has gotten virtually no broad visibility: the threat of a Runaway Constitutional Convention if Rs were to gain control of both the House and Senate.
Congress has sole authority to decide how to interpret state calls for a con-con (president is not involved, and SCOTUS would recuse from anything it considers political, outside a judicial jurisdiction), and Rs are aiming for a rogue interpretation if they gain power in 2025, and will find a way to call a con-con.
Once a convention gets going, even Congress has no authority over it, and it is self-structuring in terms of rules and topics. Given the advantage R states have in their own trifectas (to appoint delegates), R delegates would simply control the entire convention and D delegates would not have veto power. They could address any amendment that they want, regardless of any purported constraints in the state calls. This is the definition of a "runaway" convention, and it is all but certain to happen if *any* con-con gets underway under any stated purposes. All bets are off.
The very DNA of our constitutional system is at stake here. Imagine if they decided to repeal the 22nd Amendment (presidential term limits), and maybe make presidential elections discretionary, combined with locking-in the SCOTUS ruling on immunity that creates an Imperial Presidency. President = King for Life?
While Project 2025 creates an imperative to win the Presidency, a Runaway Constitutional Convention creates an imperative to win Congress, above and beyond the need to have a D trifecta in order for Kamala to get anything done while in office.
This stuff is way too wonky for most voters to absorb or care about. But it should be a five-alarm fire for those of us called to mobilize those voters, whether D-coalition GOTV, or swing-voter persuasion (especially in the battleground states). So, when talking to voters, talk to them in ways that align with where they are. But when talking to volunteers and activists, I see no reason to let up on the threats to democracy. Just make clear that our "meta-motivations" may not be the same as a voter's individual motivations (unless they themselves broach the subject in a conversation).
The threat to democracy could not be more existential, and I think we should continue to embrace that ourselves, every day we are engaged in winning these elections, regardless of what the messaging strategy is to the voters we aim to mobilize.
Addendum: even the terms of ratification could be changed in the convention.
Back in 1787, when the "original" con-con happened in Philadelphia, it was convened in order to amend the Articles of Confederation. The AoC required unanimous ratification by all 13 colonies/states, but the convention basically threw out the entire AoC and rewrote a new constitution from scratch. In the process they decided that 2/3 would suffice (9 out of 13) for ratification. There was no higher authority to say they couldn't do that.
The same is true today. So don't rely on "38 states" to ratify. They could choose whatever proportion gets them within the R-trifecta states. Even just a simple majority, if it comes to that.
Yes, that might cause a genuine constitutional crisis, if blue states object and refuse to recognize the results of a con-con. But plutocrats always think in terms of "in crisis, opportunity"...
This week is more fun than the Olympics for me. Eagerly await the Convention and all the Crooked output, especially yours.
I.am.here.for.this. PLEASE, I am begging, can we talk about ANYTHING other than trump. Love everything about the Harris/Walz campaign so far. Really hope they stay brave and edgy
It's so wonderful to focus on a future that includes all of the people this time. Always focusing on battling the tRump minions makes one weary and contributes to PTSD.
“The race is now about the future, and about hope and joy, as opposed to the fear that dominated politics since Trump arrived on the scene.”
I can’t tell you how relieved I am at this and I’m sure there are a lot of Americans who agree. The malignant narcissist trump has sucked the oxygen out of the media air for too long. We’ve had enough! Harris-Walz are framing their campaign beautifully. I’m so grateful.
Meanwhile I’m writing postcards, phone banking and will be canvassing soon. ACTION. FOWARD.
I've been subscribed to this new I've I've I've been receiving this newsletter for a little over a week now and I can't thank you enough, Dan, for your insight. What a refreshing way to look at the political scene over the next few months. We don't have to talk about that man all the time. There's other things we can talk about and think about and hope about. Thanks so much for making that clear in this newsletter!
It's here, the Democrat Convention!
It's even in Chicago, just like the crazy time in 1968.
Lots of pundits, reporters, journalists from all over the world are suddenly interested in listening to the speeches (and a company paid jaunt to the Windy City!).
Like Bernie, I'm listening.
Not cheering. Need to hear something other than identity politics and "We're not Biden OR Fat Donny!"
Show me a real move, or we're just playing with the margins again and nothing, I mean it, nothing is actually changing.
EDIT: OMG, saw a great nickname for Musk far better than my own: Space Karen! I love that. Space Karen it is!