I just read an article about this, and the answer is that most pollsters have their own method. Pew uses something called cluster analysis by asking questions that attempt to capture ideological, identity, and psychological factors about each poll respondent. A technique called cluster analysis then groups Republicans into various categories such as “Faith and Flag Conservatives” and “Populist Right”. Certain of these groups are considered MAGA. Pew usually has a smaller share labelled as MAGA, but these are intensely MAGA.
Other pollsters more directly question to determine who’s MAGA. The nature of the questions and the weight given to each determine why various pollsters produce differing numbers.
As always with polls, averaging the results tends to produce more reliable results.
I wonder about this too, and not just about pollsters. "MAGA" has become a catch-all phrase for supporters of the Trump administration. Originally it referred to Trump's "base," e.g., the ones who showed up at mega-MAGA rallies. They weren't monolithic either: they included Christian nationalists and secular Make America White Again racists, among others. They were joined by the opportunistic Republicans who saw Trump as a vehicle to return their party to the glory days (???) of Reagan, Bush 1, and Bush 2. Behind them we have the wealthy puppeteers who have the $$$ but nowhere near enough votes -- several of whom outed themselves by volunteering to fund the ballroom. And so on. It's a coalition with many fault lines, which have become ever more obvious since the onset of Trump 2.
“Are Trump and his allies arguing that he will never leave the White House? Will all of his events be on campus? Is Trump just going to hole up in the White House and never leave? (Maybe?)”
My first thought was “Of course not- what about his golf game?”
And then my second thought was that with the immense footprint of the ballroom, and the possibility of expanding laterally underground, the bunker will probably include the world’s largest indoor driving range as well as a putting green.
My understanding is that MAGA is the ride or die, if Trump wants it I’m in supporters—the ones that will continue to support him after that shooting someone on Fifth Avenue happens. These people are the ones Trump cites as giving him 100% support. They are also the reason his pollsters distinguish between MAGA “republicans” and other republicans. This distinction is important for several reasons. First, the number of MAGA republicans is shrinking, as many have become American First republicans. . Secondly, it is showing cracks (note 22% of them oppose the ballroom). Third, note what the American First republicans think. These folks are the MTG, Joe Rogan republicans who oppose the war and are worried about their health care and grocery prices. They are the reason Trumps numbers are in the toilet.
Meanwhile, the grift that Trump and co. are perpetrating is bankrupting the US. I hope someone, somewhere, is documenting everything and getting receipts.
I cannot say how happy I am that the GOP in congress has gotten on board with Trump’s ballroom and is now trying to fund it. All I can see in my mind is an image of lemmings running off a cliff. This is, of course, where all of these fine people belong, right into obscurity.
You’ve made a strong case here about misplaced priorities, and the ballroom example works as an entry point. But I think the conclusion needs to hit harder and simpler.
This isn’t just about Trump being distracted or having odd fixations. It’s not just “he’s not addressing costs.” It’s that he is actively making the core problems worse.
That distinction matters.
Right now, voters are asking three basic questions:
* Are my costs going down?
* Is government working for me?
* Is the situation getting more stable or more chaotic?
The answer people are experiencing is:
* Costs are not going down
* Corruption feels worse, not better
* Chaos is increasing, not decreasing
That’s the message that needs to be driven home—clearly and repeatedly.
The ballroom is a useful symbol, but it’s only effective if it points to that larger truth:
This isn’t neglect. It’s direction.
What Jon Ossoff has done well is hammering simple, repeatable lines:
* “They’re raising your costs, not lowering them.”
* “They’re looking out for themselves, not you.”
* “They’re making things more chaotic, not more stable.”
Same argument, different phrasing, over and over—because that’s what sticks.
So yes, lead with the ballroom or his other crazy fixations. But land it with something unmistakable:
He’s not just failing to fix the problems he ran on. He’s making them worse.
I prefer to refer to it as the golden bullroom, as in an even bigger, even more yuge version of the golden calf of biblical note and notoriety, and as in bullshit (a fancy word for lies). The sudden coordinated Republican mania to build the bullroom is the result of a federal judge saying Congress must appropriate the funding. The mania for a bunker is because the judge ruled that construction, absent congressional funding, could only involve the hole in the ground. What tangled webs we weave when obsession meets an immovable object, in the rule of law.
It's all so patently absurd that they ought to apply for a patent for the golden bullroom, where personal safety and validation involves a bunker and a golden building. It's a perfect symbol of the Trump era, one that has nothing to do with the people he is supposed to represent, and everything to do with the people he actually does represent, the oligarchs. Democrats would do well in a midterm congressional election to contrast concern for the president's safety, as allegedly manifest in the golden bullroom, with images of the attack on members of Congress and his vice president on January 6th.
Agree. I’ve been wishing for some time that congressional Democrats would act more aggressively toward their Republican colleagues: Scream at them, in committee meetings, in the hallways, in their offices, etc. Make their lives so miserable they will want to quit!
I have to pile on for a second: the WH correspondence dinner, in addition to being a private affair, hosted about 1,500 more people that Trumps ballroom will accommodate. So who decides who gets to attend? Does this really become state sponsored media? That may be part of the objective, but only incidentally.
I was also encouraged to see that 22% of MAGA/ride or die no matter what Trump supporters were opposed to the ballroom. This tells me there are real cracks in the MAGA coalition.
Painfully stupid! Unfortunately not only on this. However, why do we think MAGA will understand this? I have had several people tell me that since White House is in the name of the event, it was a Presidential event that should be held in the ballroom.
My husband (who just bought a new car that requires premium gas) paid $7 per gallon in CA. Don’t even get me started on the cost of our groceries. It’s about tripled since covid. And I don’t blame Biden. At least he tried to address the problem.
"Ballroom" is such a great word. It chains Republicans to Trump without having to say his name. It shames them all, even at the local and state level. It says so much in just 8 characters.
Republicans have brought us exploding costs, chaos, and corruption... But hey, who doesn't want a gilded ballroom?
Dan is right, this is a gift we need to use. Mercilessly.
It really is (and has been) a lay up message for Democrats.
Trump and his enablers want to spend hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars on vanity projects and branding, meanwhile you can’t afford gas, rent, electricity or to feed your family.
Trump and his enablers have looted the the government for billions of taxpayer dollars to enrich himself and his billionaire friends. Meanwhile they’re sending your kids off to fight illegal wars, building concentration camps, taking away your rights and freedoms, destroying democracy and you still can’t afford gas and food.
It all comes back to his narcissism and widespread corruption.
Thanks for pointing out the obvious: if the ballroom is the only place where trump would be secure, does this mean he’ll never leave it? No more Mar A Lago weekends. No more golfing events. No more high society galas. Just an old man wandering around in his ballroom.
Excellent post. Question: how do pollsters distinguish between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans? Do they self-identify?
I just read an article about this, and the answer is that most pollsters have their own method. Pew uses something called cluster analysis by asking questions that attempt to capture ideological, identity, and psychological factors about each poll respondent. A technique called cluster analysis then groups Republicans into various categories such as “Faith and Flag Conservatives” and “Populist Right”. Certain of these groups are considered MAGA. Pew usually has a smaller share labelled as MAGA, but these are intensely MAGA.
Other pollsters more directly question to determine who’s MAGA. The nature of the questions and the weight given to each determine why various pollsters produce differing numbers.
As always with polls, averaging the results tends to produce more reliable results.
Wow, Tom, thanks. That’s exactly what I wanted to know.
I wonder about this too, and not just about pollsters. "MAGA" has become a catch-all phrase for supporters of the Trump administration. Originally it referred to Trump's "base," e.g., the ones who showed up at mega-MAGA rallies. They weren't monolithic either: they included Christian nationalists and secular Make America White Again racists, among others. They were joined by the opportunistic Republicans who saw Trump as a vehicle to return their party to the glory days (???) of Reagan, Bush 1, and Bush 2. Behind them we have the wealthy puppeteers who have the $$$ but nowhere near enough votes -- several of whom outed themselves by volunteering to fund the ballroom. And so on. It's a coalition with many fault lines, which have become ever more obvious since the onset of Trump 2.
“Are Trump and his allies arguing that he will never leave the White House? Will all of his events be on campus? Is Trump just going to hole up in the White House and never leave? (Maybe?)”
My first thought was “Of course not- what about his golf game?”
And then my second thought was that with the immense footprint of the ballroom, and the possibility of expanding laterally underground, the bunker will probably include the world’s largest indoor driving range as well as a putting green.
My understanding is that MAGA is the ride or die, if Trump wants it I’m in supporters—the ones that will continue to support him after that shooting someone on Fifth Avenue happens. These people are the ones Trump cites as giving him 100% support. They are also the reason his pollsters distinguish between MAGA “republicans” and other republicans. This distinction is important for several reasons. First, the number of MAGA republicans is shrinking, as many have become American First republicans. . Secondly, it is showing cracks (note 22% of them oppose the ballroom). Third, note what the American First republicans think. These folks are the MTG, Joe Rogan republicans who oppose the war and are worried about their health care and grocery prices. They are the reason Trumps numbers are in the toilet.
Meanwhile, the grift that Trump and co. are perpetrating is bankrupting the US. I hope someone, somewhere, is documenting everything and getting receipts.
I cannot say how happy I am that the GOP in congress has gotten on board with Trump’s ballroom and is now trying to fund it. All I can see in my mind is an image of lemmings running off a cliff. This is, of course, where all of these fine people belong, right into obscurity.
Well, let’s hope Democrats do take advantage of this opportunity and not blow it like they usually do.
You’ve made a strong case here about misplaced priorities, and the ballroom example works as an entry point. But I think the conclusion needs to hit harder and simpler.
This isn’t just about Trump being distracted or having odd fixations. It’s not just “he’s not addressing costs.” It’s that he is actively making the core problems worse.
That distinction matters.
Right now, voters are asking three basic questions:
* Are my costs going down?
* Is government working for me?
* Is the situation getting more stable or more chaotic?
The answer people are experiencing is:
* Costs are not going down
* Corruption feels worse, not better
* Chaos is increasing, not decreasing
That’s the message that needs to be driven home—clearly and repeatedly.
The ballroom is a useful symbol, but it’s only effective if it points to that larger truth:
This isn’t neglect. It’s direction.
What Jon Ossoff has done well is hammering simple, repeatable lines:
* “They’re raising your costs, not lowering them.”
* “They’re looking out for themselves, not you.”
* “They’re making things more chaotic, not more stable.”
Same argument, different phrasing, over and over—because that’s what sticks.
So yes, lead with the ballroom or his other crazy fixations. But land it with something unmistakable:
He’s not just failing to fix the problems he ran on. He’s making them worse.
That’s the sentence people remember.
I prefer to refer to it as the golden bullroom, as in an even bigger, even more yuge version of the golden calf of biblical note and notoriety, and as in bullshit (a fancy word for lies). The sudden coordinated Republican mania to build the bullroom is the result of a federal judge saying Congress must appropriate the funding. The mania for a bunker is because the judge ruled that construction, absent congressional funding, could only involve the hole in the ground. What tangled webs we weave when obsession meets an immovable object, in the rule of law.
It's all so patently absurd that they ought to apply for a patent for the golden bullroom, where personal safety and validation involves a bunker and a golden building. It's a perfect symbol of the Trump era, one that has nothing to do with the people he is supposed to represent, and everything to do with the people he actually does represent, the oligarchs. Democrats would do well in a midterm congressional election to contrast concern for the president's safety, as allegedly manifest in the golden bullroom, with images of the attack on members of Congress and his vice president on January 6th.
Tell him he can have his ballroom if he stops the war and opens the strait. Then let him work on that thing all he wants for the next 991 days.
Why should Trump care about his poll numbers? Because dictators don’t need approval of the masses.
You’re right, though his narcissism makes him care.
But Republicans do and that’s why this message shouldn’t be aimed at only Trump, it needs to be attached to every single Republican.
Democrats should be naming and shaming their opponents daily.
Agree. I’ve been wishing for some time that congressional Democrats would act more aggressively toward their Republican colleagues: Scream at them, in committee meetings, in the hallways, in their offices, etc. Make their lives so miserable they will want to quit!
I have to pile on for a second: the WH correspondence dinner, in addition to being a private affair, hosted about 1,500 more people that Trumps ballroom will accommodate. So who decides who gets to attend? Does this really become state sponsored media? That may be part of the objective, but only incidentally.
I was also encouraged to see that 22% of MAGA/ride or die no matter what Trump supporters were opposed to the ballroom. This tells me there are real cracks in the MAGA coalition.
Painfully stupid! Unfortunately not only on this. However, why do we think MAGA will understand this? I have had several people tell me that since White House is in the name of the event, it was a Presidential event that should be held in the ballroom.
Gas is $5/gallon in Ohio
My husband (who just bought a new car that requires premium gas) paid $7 per gallon in CA. Don’t even get me started on the cost of our groceries. It’s about tripled since covid. And I don’t blame Biden. At least he tried to address the problem.
I am feeling quite grateful that I bought an electric car in September!
"Ballroom" is such a great word. It chains Republicans to Trump without having to say his name. It shames them all, even at the local and state level. It says so much in just 8 characters.
Republicans have brought us exploding costs, chaos, and corruption... But hey, who doesn't want a gilded ballroom?
Dan is right, this is a gift we need to use. Mercilessly.
It really is (and has been) a lay up message for Democrats.
Trump and his enablers want to spend hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars on vanity projects and branding, meanwhile you can’t afford gas, rent, electricity or to feed your family.
Trump and his enablers have looted the the government for billions of taxpayer dollars to enrich himself and his billionaire friends. Meanwhile they’re sending your kids off to fight illegal wars, building concentration camps, taking away your rights and freedoms, destroying democracy and you still can’t afford gas and food.
It all comes back to his narcissism and widespread corruption.
Thanks Dan
Thanks for pointing out the obvious: if the ballroom is the only place where trump would be secure, does this mean he’ll never leave it? No more Mar A Lago weekends. No more golfing events. No more high society galas. Just an old man wandering around in his ballroom.
The ballroom is a Trump top priority… as JVL would say “does this sound like a guy who’s looking to leave the presidency in 2028?”