I keep wondering how big his voter base really is. He claimed that 200 million Americans loved him in one of his idiotic speeches or after court (it all blurs together), and I know that's not true. What I do find problematic is the number of people in positions of authority that can sway people toward him, or who provide cover of legitimacy.
Also - wtf is up with Clarence Thomas and why is THAT not bigger news? Especially on the day they are hearing arguments about the Jan 6 stuff.
Oh, Dan, I want so much for you to be correct. But I think my problem - and the problem for so many others - is that history has shown us that Trump is immune. We've actually seen the process play out so many times. There has been nothing - NOTHING - that has damaged him in the eyes of his cult members, and I have no reason to hope that this will be any different. Seriously, all hyperbole aside, I honestly do believe that he could shoot someone and still get elected. I do. And it isn't about Trump. It's about people like Chris Sununu who admit what Trump has done on national TV and still say they will be voting for him. And all those MAGA freaks who simply don't care. The more evil Trump perpetrates, the more they love him. But the kicker is our system that will NOT reassure us that even if Biden receives a majority of votes, the Electoral College won't still allow Trump back into the White House. I want to have hope, I really do. But it's like hitting yourself in the head with a frying pan and expecting it not to hurt the next time you do it.
He’s a bully, and Sununu is a feckless coward. Trump’s spent 5 decades perfecting his schtick. He has lost: Trump University and 4 bankruptcies, his charity was dissolved. He has kept himself from personal risk, but those days are gone. He knows he can lose, he is under great pressure and I believe either the pressure or legal jeopardy will get him.
If this trial starts going south for him, you will see influential people desert him.
Trump is a movement. All movements die out sometime. Tea party, for instance. Trump's success rests on how he resonates with the MAGA movement. That can change any time.
Trump is bluster. Like all bullies, he’s good at it, but we are seeing it start to crack. Yesterday he showed up for court with huge bags under his eyes (look at one of the pictures) and fell asleep numerous times. No sleep the night before and the danger of his situation is getting to him. And he has weeks of sitting ahead of him, scared, sleep-deprived, and at the mercy of a process he can’t flee or bully. The trial itself may do him in.
Here is a contradiction I can’t resolve. We have been told by pundits that this trial is weak tea, that it is election interference charges stacked on top of business-record charges in an untested way, and that a guilty verdict won’t hurt in this case so much. But we’re also told that the public is not up on the details, and can’t tell which trial is which. Well, you can’t have it both ways. Either the public knows enough or it doesn’t. If there’s a guilty verdict in this trial, here is my thinking: the public will consider it a guilty verdict. Trump’s air of invincibility will shatter. Trump’s sense of dread will increase dramatically. Even if SCOTUS grants him limited immunity as president, it won’t be a lifeline here, because he wasn’t yet president when he committed these crimes. He will be in court in NY until just before the convention. A 78 year-old unhealthy man will not make up campaigning time on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Sundays.
One minor point of framing glossed over here might add additional weight to your argument: the case is about "election hush money fraud" – the election fraud is primarily what makes it a felony, and what makes it about more than just something merely salacious.
The hush was intended to help prevent him from losing the 2016 election, and so the money was an election expense. Failing to report that is a felony violation of election law.
Those who argue that we can't know whether it would have flipped the result need to remember that campaign ads may not flip an election, but they are still campaign expenses. And in the context of the moment, there actually is good reason to think the exposure of gross infidelity just a short time before the election (with the expected concomitant press attention because of the salaciousness) could well have tanked him.
This framing happens all too infrequently in MSM, probably because it has the potential to confuse the audience if not done carefully. But it rankles me every time I hear "the hush money case" without mention of the election violation in the same breath. It downplays the seriousness of what actually transpired. It was about manipulating an election, not about the personal transgression per se.
They got Al Capone on tax evasion, but they got him all the same, and he went to prison all the same.
Sorry, I already commented below but then another persistent thought crept to the front (a second cup of coffee does that)...
I hope smart people are thinking through what happens if Trump is not convicted. After all, OJ died a free man. If there are narratives we should be weaving into our communications now to inoculate voters for this possible outcome, it would be good to know.
Just curious— hasn’t the polling shifted? I thought Biden was now leading, if barely? And obviously I don’t believe the polls are super meaningful but I find it interesting that the narrative is still that Trump is leading even though the polls have shifted Biden’s way.
I am in a Blue state - our measly 8 EC votes are almost certain to go to Biden. So I'm also keenly interested in how Trump's criminality can be spread onto the Republicans candidates at the local and state level, and in at least one Congressional district. As much as I hate elevating the salaciousness of what, to me at least, is solely about deceiving voters, it seems like the seedy and unseemly elements of the trial could catch the attention of otherwise disengaged potential voters. If anyone sees good examples of this, please share.
I love “The Impossible Paragraph.” But it isn’t like “An Immovable Rock.” I am not pessimistic or cynical bc it is cool Dan. I bc Tr has this huge, weird machine in place. Ruth Ben-Ghiat interview, The Bulwark. Sometimes your own cynicism gets in your way, IMHO. But you are my guy.
If we can step out of pollster panic horse race mode for a moment, Ruth Ben-Ghiat offers a important, and (OMG! Don't faint!) encouraging perspective on the trial of Trump:
"What draws me in, as a scholar of autocracy, is the amazing and beautiful and never-to-be-taken-for-granted fact that this trial is happening at all. A similar trial could never happen in Turkey today, or in Russia, China, or Hungary —https://lucid.substack.com/p/the-small-miracle-that-is-trumpswhich is a big factor in Trump’s boundless admiration of the leaders of those countries. They would never be in this situation. Personality cults across the political spectrum may present the leader as 'a man of the people,' but being treated as equal to those people is not an outcome authoritarians foresee."
We the people have an opportunity to see the uncurated Trump, the Trump who can't say or do whatever pops into his mind, the Trump who isn't in control of the situation. We can, in other words, see for ourselves. I think it's going to make a difference.
I keep wondering how big his voter base really is. He claimed that 200 million Americans loved him in one of his idiotic speeches or after court (it all blurs together), and I know that's not true. What I do find problematic is the number of people in positions of authority that can sway people toward him, or who provide cover of legitimacy.
Also - wtf is up with Clarence Thomas and why is THAT not bigger news? Especially on the day they are hearing arguments about the Jan 6 stuff.
Oh, Dan, I want so much for you to be correct. But I think my problem - and the problem for so many others - is that history has shown us that Trump is immune. We've actually seen the process play out so many times. There has been nothing - NOTHING - that has damaged him in the eyes of his cult members, and I have no reason to hope that this will be any different. Seriously, all hyperbole aside, I honestly do believe that he could shoot someone and still get elected. I do. And it isn't about Trump. It's about people like Chris Sununu who admit what Trump has done on national TV and still say they will be voting for him. And all those MAGA freaks who simply don't care. The more evil Trump perpetrates, the more they love him. But the kicker is our system that will NOT reassure us that even if Biden receives a majority of votes, the Electoral College won't still allow Trump back into the White House. I want to have hope, I really do. But it's like hitting yourself in the head with a frying pan and expecting it not to hurt the next time you do it.
He’s a bully, and Sununu is a feckless coward. Trump’s spent 5 decades perfecting his schtick. He has lost: Trump University and 4 bankruptcies, his charity was dissolved. He has kept himself from personal risk, but those days are gone. He knows he can lose, he is under great pressure and I believe either the pressure or legal jeopardy will get him.
If this trial starts going south for him, you will see influential people desert him.
Trump is a movement. All movements die out sometime. Tea party, for instance. Trump's success rests on how he resonates with the MAGA movement. That can change any time.
Trump is bluster. Like all bullies, he’s good at it, but we are seeing it start to crack. Yesterday he showed up for court with huge bags under his eyes (look at one of the pictures) and fell asleep numerous times. No sleep the night before and the danger of his situation is getting to him. And he has weeks of sitting ahead of him, scared, sleep-deprived, and at the mercy of a process he can’t flee or bully. The trial itself may do him in.
Here is a contradiction I can’t resolve. We have been told by pundits that this trial is weak tea, that it is election interference charges stacked on top of business-record charges in an untested way, and that a guilty verdict won’t hurt in this case so much. But we’re also told that the public is not up on the details, and can’t tell which trial is which. Well, you can’t have it both ways. Either the public knows enough or it doesn’t. If there’s a guilty verdict in this trial, here is my thinking: the public will consider it a guilty verdict. Trump’s air of invincibility will shatter. Trump’s sense of dread will increase dramatically. Even if SCOTUS grants him limited immunity as president, it won’t be a lifeline here, because he wasn’t yet president when he committed these crimes. He will be in court in NY until just before the convention. A 78 year-old unhealthy man will not make up campaigning time on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Sundays.
He will not be re-elected.
One minor point of framing glossed over here might add additional weight to your argument: the case is about "election hush money fraud" – the election fraud is primarily what makes it a felony, and what makes it about more than just something merely salacious.
The hush was intended to help prevent him from losing the 2016 election, and so the money was an election expense. Failing to report that is a felony violation of election law.
Those who argue that we can't know whether it would have flipped the result need to remember that campaign ads may not flip an election, but they are still campaign expenses. And in the context of the moment, there actually is good reason to think the exposure of gross infidelity just a short time before the election (with the expected concomitant press attention because of the salaciousness) could well have tanked him.
This framing happens all too infrequently in MSM, probably because it has the potential to confuse the audience if not done carefully. But it rankles me every time I hear "the hush money case" without mention of the election violation in the same breath. It downplays the seriousness of what actually transpired. It was about manipulating an election, not about the personal transgression per se.
They got Al Capone on tax evasion, but they got him all the same, and he went to prison all the same.
Sorry, I already commented below but then another persistent thought crept to the front (a second cup of coffee does that)...
I hope smart people are thinking through what happens if Trump is not convicted. After all, OJ died a free man. If there are narratives we should be weaving into our communications now to inoculate voters for this possible outcome, it would be good to know.
Just curious— hasn’t the polling shifted? I thought Biden was now leading, if barely? And obviously I don’t believe the polls are super meaningful but I find it interesting that the narrative is still that Trump is leading even though the polls have shifted Biden’s way.
Not leading yet. Just not losing as much. That is the poll that is confusing you. See nyt front page last few days.
I am in a Blue state - our measly 8 EC votes are almost certain to go to Biden. So I'm also keenly interested in how Trump's criminality can be spread onto the Republicans candidates at the local and state level, and in at least one Congressional district. As much as I hate elevating the salaciousness of what, to me at least, is solely about deceiving voters, it seems like the seedy and unseemly elements of the trial could catch the attention of otherwise disengaged potential voters. If anyone sees good examples of this, please share.
I love “The Impossible Paragraph.” But it isn’t like “An Immovable Rock.” I am not pessimistic or cynical bc it is cool Dan. I bc Tr has this huge, weird machine in place. Ruth Ben-Ghiat interview, The Bulwark. Sometimes your own cynicism gets in your way, IMHO. But you are my guy.
If we can step out of pollster panic horse race mode for a moment, Ruth Ben-Ghiat offers a important, and (OMG! Don't faint!) encouraging perspective on the trial of Trump:
"What draws me in, as a scholar of autocracy, is the amazing and beautiful and never-to-be-taken-for-granted fact that this trial is happening at all. A similar trial could never happen in Turkey today, or in Russia, China, or Hungary —https://lucid.substack.com/p/the-small-miracle-that-is-trumpswhich is a big factor in Trump’s boundless admiration of the leaders of those countries. They would never be in this situation. Personality cults across the political spectrum may present the leader as 'a man of the people,' but being treated as equal to those people is not an outcome authoritarians foresee."
Very worth reading: https://lucid.substack.com/p/the-small-miracle-that-is-trumps
We the people have an opportunity to see the uncurated Trump, the Trump who can't say or do whatever pops into his mind, the Trump who isn't in control of the situation. We can, in other words, see for ourselves. I think it's going to make a difference.
Biden will be barnstorming where??
Penn., this week.