Why You Shouldn't Panic about the Polls

Trump's advantage is small and fragile, which is why this a very winnable race

Immediately prior to the historic guilty verdict of the former President and presumptive Republican nominee, Democrats were in the midst of our monthly panic about Joe Biden and the 2024 Campaign.

Politico captured the mood among some in the party with this headline:

Subtle, huh?

The words beneath that headline are even more concerning:

A pervasive sense of fear has settled in at the highest levels of the Democratic Party over President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, even among officeholders and strategists who had previously expressed confidence about the coming battle with Donald Trump.

All year, Democrats had been on a joyless and exhausting grind through the 2024 election. But now, nearly five months from the election, anxiety has morphed into palpable trepidation, according to more than a dozen party leaders and operatives. And the gap between what Democrats will say on TV or in print, and what they’ll text their friends, has only grown as worries have surged about Biden’s prospects.

In the wake of the verdict, the polls showed small but significant movement toward Biden. That, combined with the palpable joy at Trump finally being held accountable for his misdeeds, caused the panic to be set aside.

But that moment of zen was fleeting. Last week, Fox News released a series of polls showing Trump winning Arizona, Nevada, and Florida and the race tied in the previously safe Blue state of Virginia. Now, I want to see more data before I start to worry about Virginia, but Republican operatives have been telling reporters the state is much closer than Biden’s 10-point win in 2020.

Once again, the concerned texts and emails started pouring in despite the slew of polls over the weekend that validated the idea that the conviction was hurting Trump (albeit marginally).

People are right to worry. This race is closer than it should be and the stakes could not be higher. It’s shocking that, after everything, Donald Trump is welcome in public let alone on the doorstep of returning to the White House. However, the level of defeatism among so many Democrats is unwarranted. Here’s why you shouldn’t panic (yet):

1. This is a Very Close Race

For all of the panic expressed by Politico, the polls tell a very consistent and clear story. This is a close race that is likely to be decided by less than 100,000 votes spread across a handful of states.

According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump leads Biden by only 1.1%:

Trump’s lead is well within the margin of error. It’s important to remember that a poll with Biden up two or down two says essentially the same thing — this race is a jump ball.

2. Biden’s Path to 270 is Narrow But Clear

Presidential elections are not decided by the national popular vote. Candidates must win enough states to get to 270 electoral votes. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College is bigger than his support nationally. Biden won all six key battleground states in 2020. At this point, Trump is ahead in four of the six and North Carolina where the Biden Campaign plans to complete this cycle.

Some of those leads are shockingly large, but it is much closer in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Biden wins those three states plus the 2nd district in Nebraska, which he won by seven points in 2020, he would achieve 270 electoral votes. There is A LOT of work to do in these states. Thankfully, they have a long history of voting for Democrats — with the notable exception of Trump’s 2016 wins; and Democrats did very well in 2022 in all of the states. All three have powerful, well-liked Democratic governors with well-funded, and well-assembled political organizations.

It would be better to have more margin for error and more paths to the White House, but you don’t get extra presidential powers for every electoral vote over 270.

3. Trump’s Lead is Fragile

Trump’s advantage in these polls could not be more precarious. While high-frequency voters back Biden, Trump leads with the folks who vote less often, pay less attention to the news, and engage less frequently with politics.

Many of these people voted for Biden in 2020 and come from constituencies with a long history of voting for Democrats. Nate Cohn recently wrote in the New York Times:

Importantly, these disengaged low-turnout voters are often from predominantly Democratic constituencies. Many continue to identify as Democratic-leaning and still back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate, but they nonetheless are backing away from Mr. Biden in startling numbers.

Keeping these disengaged Democratic-leaning voters in Biden’s camp is a tall order.

I am extremely worried about this election. President Biden is facing an incredibly tough political environment compounded by a fragmented media ecosystem. It is a challenge to tell his story and focus voters on the dangers of Trump. The presence of third party candidates and the divisions within the Democratic Party over Gaza make matters worse. I am not one of those Democrats who think the polls are wrong; and I imagine if the election were held today, Trump would probably win.

But I also believe that this election is very winnable, and within the “margin of effort.” So instead of spending so much time worrying about a loss, we should channel that anxiety into the work to ensure a win.

With that in mind, go to Vote Save America and sign up to do just that.