46 Comments
Mar 21·edited Mar 21

I dreamed a dream:

Dateline: October 29, 2024 Palm Beach, FL

Donald Trump, a day after being found guilty in the January 6th federal trial, was located at his Mar-a-Lago beach house, having eluded authorities for 24 hours, by being spirited out of a Washington, D.C. courthouse disguised as an ungainly sack of grotesque Halloween decorations and pumpkins.

He was re-arrested after a brief scuffle with FBI agents who were reportedly assaulted by a hail of overdone hamburgers and freedom fries.

Democrats expressed dismay as ketchup-splattered federal agents escorted a handcuffed Trump off the property, fearing that the rough handling might spur sympathy and tilt the coming election.

Veep nominee Gov. Kristi Noem, interrupted while filming a commercial for Illuminé, a cosmetic that promises a brighter and whiter hue to facial skin, said, “I haven’t seen any news and had not been following the trial and have no comment at this time”.

Democrats expressed dismay. When questioned why, a spokesman said, “Because we’re Democrats.”

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Thanks, Dan! I copied the part about not panicking into my notes app, because I know I will want to find it again!

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We Dems are professional handwringers - I read an article in one of the major news magazines - not sure if it was the Atlantic - but it described Dems as having "learned helplessness". This was well before President Obama's term in office.

Morning Joe engages in this kind of alarmist stuff - they did a bit on the threat of 3rd party candidates. I don't think they are wrong - we should be concerned, but I am going to just keep breathing and talking to my people who are skittish.

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UGHHHH, the learned helplessness is real!! I was at my husband's work event this week and towards the end, a group (all Democrats), started complaining about how Trump is going to win and it's so depressing. I was finally like, "hey, we have some control over this." Everyone responded that of course, they were going to vote. We are in California, so voting for president is the least important thing we can do! I then went on a (hopefully gentle) tirade about how they can call, text or postcard to swing states. Two of the guys at the gathering are originally from Wisconsin and were talking about how they will move back there to vote in November. I told them no need to move, just put on their best Wisconsin accents and join a phonebank! Every conversation with a Democrat these days is just a therapy session.

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That is such a great last line!

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Yes

Yes

Yes

Learned helplessness is real

It is currently observed in the Democrat voting community in their lack of demand(s)

Like good little kids they are doing what they are told

They are not realizing we have no social "parents", it is up to us, the adults.

Democrats have lost the plot that they can act independently

Spiciest of EDITS:

Democrats have forgotten their roots lay in grassroots ACTION

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I think it’s imaginary—a phantom created by the MSM.

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Link to National Institute of Health, Medical Publications, Learned Helplessness:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5141652/

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Thanks Dan! Upfront I’d like Crooked Media to examine the Ben Shapiro and the right BS about not retiring- they are starting to hypnotize & prime the trumpers and GOP into a message that they don’t need social security or Medicare or the retirement they deserve so GOP can cut untax the rich and get rid of the safety net we paid into. Please talk about this theory on the pod it’s very important we hear what they are actually saying!

Now

Here’s the reason why I feel dems panic 🙀 people like us like me- who are well informed to what’s going on in politics and the world see it everyday. We hear the dog whistles going thru the bull horn.

Non informed people get whatever news they do get from misinformation or platforms that are slanted to the middle right (which is every real news platform) my sister in law is such a lefty she’s turned right!

I’m thankful to all of you at crooked for your Substack and keeping me somewhat sane and everyone working so hard at vsa to gotv but it’s getting harder by the day to stay positive especially -even though I’m in CA -I live in a red zone -

I stay involved in the Democratic Club I write letters and postcards I send $ to candidates I do walk the walk but

I’m really nervous 😬

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In addition to reading the Message Box, I would recommend subscribing to the Hopium Chronicles if you want to ease your nerves more…

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I like Hopium, but sometimes it feels like a bit of an overdose of "everything's fine, don't worry!" I like Dan's approach instead, which tends to be "things are better than you think, but keep working hard and take nothing for granted!"

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Thanks

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Thank you for everything you do.

These are scary times and you are not alone. On top of real social pressures, we are all being told we are under constant attack.

And we are to a degree; our "social" devices fail us.

But you are not alone.

PS - If you're ever in Fresno and see Kevin McCarthy, please, please do take the opportunity to exercise the shit out of your 1st Amendment rights to his face.

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I wrote postcards to voters in McCarthy’s district 😃

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Meanwhile, Joe Biden is in the midst of his best run of polling in some time. 5 post-State Of The Union polls have him ahead (all via 538)

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The Economist poll average has Biden 1 point ahead of Trump for the second week in a row…

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Economist still brings the news

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The two candidates couldn’t be more different: Trump’s campaigning on a ‘strong man’ retribution tour theme. He’s offering nothing, not even to his voters. President Biden has a three year track record of accomplishment and is sending a message of hope and encouragement. Selling that as a 50/50 choice takes dedication and effort.

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NYT headline Jan 20, 2025: “Biden Inauguration Spells Doom for Re-election Chances”

They’ve chosen a narrative that Biden is weak and won’t abandon it easily. That’s unfortunate but only makes it more imperative we do everything we can to ensure victory.

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I’m 69 years old and have been reading the Times my entire adult life. I almost always found a way to subscribe to it even when things were tough. And I’ve cancelled my subscription over their awful Biden-Trump coverage.

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Same, except I’m 68 and have not read it my whole life! (The Boston Globe, maybe :)) I hated to cancel, but could not continue to support their anti-Biden “balanced” coverage.

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Something fundamental has changed at the NYT.

Feels like they give zero fucks what anyone thinks but themselves now.

New Yorkers are fundamentally self-centered, but this is a whole new level.

EDIT: how many times can the word fundamental be used in a single post? ask the dude who's blatherings are present

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I totally agree C. Pearce. Apparently, so do many others:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/media/new-york-times-trump-coverage-backlash/index.html

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Yeah, and that's just the Fat Donny coverage alone. Read their coverage of Gaza, it's sickening, all ethics and morality vanish when the New York Jewish community is involved.

Yeah, I said it. It's not anti-Semetic to criticize. It's OK, you will survive.

EDIT: OMG only now saw this, Bassem Youssef on France 24:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhuSVyq7tOs

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If you need more convincing (as a potential on the fence Biden supporter) I’d recommend subscribing to the Hopium Chronicles, if you’re hear to just stir sh*t then please return to Telegraph

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This is what I have to say about polls: It’s MARCH!!!! Even the middle of October is too early for a poll. After the polling in October of 2020 still left us hoping for a miracle, the only thing that got me through for the next few weeks was a comment on Facebook under a photo of long early voting lines in Georgia that read “Happy voters don’t wait in long lines to vote.” That was when I thought democracy had a chance to survive.

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I agree!! Also, national polls are pretty meaningless. As you say, this early polls are useful only to campaigns who use them to spot where they need to shore up weakness.

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See? We agree on stuff.

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Bless you, we're just now getting cherry blossoms, can we cool the jets on November already????

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What about how the speech changed the press narrative? That seems pretty important. It disrupted the Biden is old story.

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Can we maybe send this to the author(s) of What a Day? Because the constant hand-wringing over polls is anxiety-inducing and exhausting. It doesn't help people who are clued in and already worried about everything to do with the upcoming election. Appreciate all you do!

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Wrong. Democrats should panic and force Biden to drop out. His polling numbers are still horrendous.

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Not an accurate take (especially on the National level) in which Biden now leads in at least six of those polls

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False. The RCP average is Trump+2 in the two-way and five-way nationwide averages, which is more than enough since Biden needs to win the PV by 4.

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And which potential Democrat nominee should replace him? Who will have name recognition and better numbers? The Rock?

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And pray tell who else should run 🙄

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This is a really good question.

Some Democrat-friendly suggestions;

Harris/Warren (one of my favs)

Harris/Newsom

Harris/Sanders if Democrats are not actually full of shit about age

And my All-Time, All-Star, We Recognize The World Has Changed Ticket:

Harris/AOC

I need a cigarette now

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They are great but they need time to go national We had Amy Klobeshar and Elizabeth Warren 4 years ago and Dems still voted for Joe The others don’t time they don’t have enough name recognition right now or the ability to get enough money they need in time GOP has a HUGE 50 year propaganda machine and we got just us

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Respectfully disagree.

The very idea that money is needed for a good ticket is a huge flag for me.

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Gretchen Whitmer obviously

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Yes

Yes

Oh yes

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Dan, would you please write about this. Not a thing I knew I had to worry about. But now I know? https://www.joshbarro.com/p/sonia-sotomayor-must-retire?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

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Mar 22·edited Mar 23

Hey Dan - I'm a big consumer of Simon Rosenberg and his Hopium Chronicles. Another great newsletter to subscribe. Simon is a brilliant Dem strategist who's following the data carefully. And while he concedes that polling is only one piece of how you evaluate the health of a campaign (and Biden is much healthier than Trump on every metric possible), this was his polling data from a day ago. Scratching my head on your article.

"As we discussed yesterday Joe Biden is in the midst of his best run of polling in some time. 6 post-State Of The Union polls show him with leads: (all via 538):

44-43 Economist/YouGov (new since yesterday)

47-45 FAU/Mainstreet

44-43 Morning Consult (March 9-11)

46-45 Public Policy Research

50-48 Ipsos/Reuters

45-44 Civiqs

And 3 more had him with leads prior to the State Of The Union:

47-44 Kaiser Family Foundation

51-49 Emerson

43-42 TIPP

The Economist poll average continues to have Biden 1 point ahead of Trump:"

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Really don't mean to pollute Dan's Substack here. Independents with reform demands can feel marginally welcome at best among Democrats.

Just a simple thought today;

Try saying aloud the one word that Boomers, toddlers (and sociopaths) despise above all else:

"No."

Just try it.

"No."

You can do this. You can make "The Party" bend to your demands.

A time honored phrase: It is simple but not easy.

Just try saying the word that is being ignored to your face through "The Party":

"No."

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