Trump's Econ Agenda: Higher Prices for You; Lower Taxes for the Rich and Corporations
A simple way to explain why we shouldn’t elect Trump
Over the weekend, Politico published a somewhat depressing story (what else is new!) about Democratic efforts to sell the Biden economy. The reporting centered around the growing sense of defeatism among Democrats and their inability to change sour perceptions of the economy before the election.
Across a year of concerted campaigning, voters’ sour view of the economy has barely budged. Biden remains deep underwater with an electorate skeptical of his record and still anxious, against all evidence, that a recession is around the corner.
“The big problem is the pain points are things they feel every week, every month, every day,” conceded one Biden adviser who was granted anonymity to express the internal sense of dismay. “Is that fixable? It’s unclear.”
We are five months out from the election. Earlier this year, there was some optimism that public perception of the economy would improve by the fall and Biden and the Democrats would be running with wind at their backs. While inflation has come down and the recent spike in gas prices has largely abated, prices remain higher than when Biden took office. At this point, it seems unlikely there will be a dramatic shift in how people view the economy before they start voting. And not much can be done to make such a shift happen.
Regardless, Dems should not concede to the idea that the economy is a failure. Democrats must continue to tell the story of the Biden economy — especially with the currently undecided Biden 2020 voters, most of whom cite the economy as their top issue and incorrectly believe Biden has done very little. A few weeks ago, I offered some thoughts on how Democrats could do that.
However, it’s time we shift our focus from how the economy is right now to how it will be if Trump wins. It’s time to define Trump’s economic agenda.
If you find this post helpful, please share it with people in your network
This newsletter was created to provide people at all levels of politics with political analysis and guidance for the conversations with the voters in your life (from your MAGA-curious Uncle to your Biden-skeptical cousin). To receive more of this content and support this work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber
Lower Taxes, Higher Prices
Donald Trump doesn’t really talk “policy.” He prefers the rollicking tales of grievance that get his rally-going supporters fired up. The absence of policy is deliberate, and not just because he has the intellectual curiosity of a shoe horn and the attention span of a fruit fly. It’s a strategic move — his agenda is unpopular and he wants the focus to be on Joe Biden. Trump can win a referendum on Biden, but a choice between two candidates is a much taller order.
Over the weekend, two stories shed some critical light on Trump’s economic agenda.
First, the New York Times looked at the core elements of Trump’s economic agenda — renewing the tax cuts passed in his first term, a mass deportation effort, and a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports — and concluded that:
Mr. Trump has offered little explanation about how his plans would lower prices. And several of his policies — whatever their merits on other grounds — would instead put new upward pressure on prices, according to interviews with half a dozen economists… As a matter of textbook economics, each of those three signature Trump policy plans would be likely to raise prices. Some could even cause continued, rather than one-time, price increases — adding to the possibility of inflation.
The inflationary impacts of tax cuts and changes in immigration policy may be challenging to explain to voters. However, there is a very easy way to talk about the tariffs. A study from the Center for American Progress found that:
The proposed across-the-board tariff would amount to a roughly $1,500 annual tax increase for the typical household, including a $90 tax increase on food, a $90 tax increase on prescription drugs, and a $120 tax increase on oil and petroleum products. This tax increase would drive up the price of goods while failing to significantly boost U.S. manufacturing and jobs.
In other words, one of Trump’s first moves — one that doesn't require Congress action — would cost your family $1500.
Second, the Washington Post reported that, in addition to renewing the Trump tax cuts that overwhelmingly benefited the wealthy and expire at the end of next year, Trump’s advisers are considering even lower rates and more breaks for the wealthy and corporations.
To pay for these tax cuts, Republicans plan to cut Social Security and Medicare and repeal the Affordable Care Act.
The Urgency of Defining Trump’s Economic Agenda
This election is not complicated.
Voters overwhelmingly say that the economy/inflation is their top issue. More than 75% of them say the economy is bad and they trust Trump more on economic issues by margins as large as 20 points. To be reelected, Biden doesn't need to win on the economy, but he can’t lose by 20 points.
Therefore, there is tremendous urgency in taking the economy fight to Trump. The best political attacks do two things: erode the opponent’s strengths and exacerbate their weaknesses. A message that makes Trump the candidate of higher prices and tax breaks for the rich checks both boxes.
Voters see Trump as better able to lower prices. A poll from the Cook Political Report found that:
78% think it’s likely inflation will continue to be an issue during a second Biden term, and only 40% think he would be able to bring down the cost of goods. Voters are much more optimistic about Trump’s ability to bring down prices, with 56% saying that they think that Trump will be able to get the cost of living under control if he were elected to a second term.
Eroding that advantage is essential for any victory plan. Similarly, tax cuts for the rich are Trump’s Achilles’ heel. He is a rich guy who likes to help other rich guys and his only legislative achievement of consequence is a phenomenally unpopular and unsuccessful tax cut bill that ballooned the deficit and paid for bonuses for CEOs and other executives. A poll from Blueprint found that more tax cuts for the rich is one of the top concerns about Trump among working-class and non-college-educated voters.
There you have it — the Trump economic agenda: High prices for you and lower taxes for the wealthy and corporations. It’s simple, easy to remember, and is consistent with how people view Trump and Republicans.
Why I am Hopeful that Joe Biden will Win
Many of the Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 are somewhere between worry and terror that he might lose the presidency to Donald Trump in November. I am reasonably confident Joe Biden will win in November.
Here are my reasons for optimism:
While polls represent the opinion of a small number of voters at a fixed point in time, elections are a full expression of voters’ decision between candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by 81 million to 74 million votes. Since then, pollsters, especially Nate Cohn’s NYTimes Siena poll, has created an intentionally misleading outlook for Biden in 2024.
Biden’s 2020 victory resulted from a choice by the majority of Americans to bring back responsible government, a forward-looking American agenda and reject Trump’s erratic, mean spirited, self-serving politics. The Trump of 2024 represents a more dangerous threat than he did in 2020. In addition to his constant lies, Trump is a rapist, a convicted felon, a financial fraudster, a threat to America’s national security, an election cheat and perhaps senile. So why would any of the 81 million Biden voters abandon him this November to vote for Trump or not vote? THEY WON’T. More likely, as the benefits of his policies become more widely recognized, Biden will pick up rather than lose voters to Trump.
However, ignoring the reality of Biden’s fundamental popularity, analysts and journalists daily warn Democrats that we should be very worried about losing for two reasons. First, Biden’s low popularity in the polls. Second, the president has old guy vibes and looks frail on TV.
Happily, Biden’s poll numbers have started rising in June. However, it’s hard to overstate the damage done to Biden’s campaign and the confidence of Democrats by the anti-Biden, gaslighting, New York Times/Sienna poll. Starting in 2023, the Times consistent election “story line” described Biden’s presidency as failing with low approval ratings. The Times poll results are widely quoted as national election “facts” by journalists across all media empowering “shock” news articles about Biden’s low prospects in 2024. The monthly drumbeat of negative Biden news has created an atmosphere of fear, dread and panic among Democrats, aided Trump’s dominance over the GOP and spread joy across the MAGA world.
How does the NYTimes poll mislead the public? By overcounting Trump-biased, MAGA participant groups in rural America. Its poll data is NOT a balanced picture of the political reality in America today but rather a snapshot of MAGA America. The Times polls include a significantly greater % of rural voters than can be justified by the demographics of America’s voting population. 22% of Americans live in rural counties. However, the Times poll has typically included 35% or more rural respondents, an overweighting of 59% in Trump America where he won in 2020 with 60% to 38% of the vote. To realistically interpret the Times polling data, Liberals should assume its polls and the journalists who quote it, are describing MAGA America, not the America where the majority of Biden’s 81 million voters live. It seems of late even Nate Cohn is waking up to his statistical aberration.
On a positive note, the Times poll results in May show Biden gaining ground. He’s leading in in Wisconsin and very close in 4 out of 5 others; VERY encouraging results for Joe Biden in a MAGA biased poll. If the Times adjusted its poll to 22% rural respondents, Biden would be ahead in 5 out of 6 swing states!
An interesting fact from the Times poll that Nate Cohn and the journalists NEVER report is that 70%-80% of all voters in swing states are “satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their situation in America today. Journalist repeatedly report that the majority are very dissatisfied with Biden because of inflation. After all, who likes inflation? But, perhaps, most voters in the Times poll think the effect of inflation is not ruining their life and might not be a major factor in November.
Biden’s age as a competitive disadvantage compared to Trump defies reality as both candidates are much older than the traditional age for a presidential candidate. In November, voters will face a binary decision based on the current behavior and mental capacity of either candidate. One candidate is executing the responsibilities of the presidency every day. He is successfully fighting wars in the Ukraine, in Israel, against MAGA extremism and to reduce inflation. That candidate is executing policies to reshore critical tech industries and reduce the effects of global warming. At the same time, he’s able to run an aggressive presidential campaign and lead powerful alliances in Asia and Europe to support democracy for the long term.
The other candidate grows more horrifyingly unattractive every day. That candidate seems to be running on an unrecognizable vision of American decline in a dystopian Zombie movie, entertaining to some of his MAGA base but far from the outlook of most Americans. How many of us are worried about electrocution vs. shark attacks?
If it wasn’t obvious at the beginning of 2020, it is now undeniable; Joe Biden is a true American political genius. We should be joyfully happy that Biden is willing to give the country another 4 years. We all need to work our tales off to get him elected.
If only Republican political leaders weren’t so stupid… after they helped push Nixon to resign, they had the presidency four years later. The public didn’t blame the party, they blamed Nixon himself. There were a few Nixon apologists, but they were viewed as an aberration.
But these days, the whole party—with very few notable exceptions—bows and scrapes publicly to a gaslighting coward, con man, and convicted crook. They look weak, power-mad and corrupt.
I think Biden will win. I believe a LOT of Dem voters are ready to work hard as volunteers; some already are. I believe that a lot of Dem voters are quietly determined to vote for Biden and may not be answering polls. I think there’s a big crowd of committed single issue voters (whether abortion, guns or freedom) who will come out to the polls. And Dems have never had the bigger crowd of single issue voters. And I believe there are a lot of people who would never vote to restore a convicted crook to the White House.
I hope that most of the thousands of Dan’s readers are volunteering for the election.