With all the normal caveats about how Trump definitely could win etc, I think Republicans are less enthusiastic because they keep losing. They’ve lost almost every significant election since 2016. Nobody wants to be on the losing team. Yeah most of them believe 2020 was stolen but Biden is in the WH so he “won” that fight. People like Kari Lake crying wolf about stolen elections starts to lose its effect on al but the most diehard (and potentially violent) supporters. We can win this if we do the work!
I didn't watch any coverage, and now I'm glad I didn't. My husband said they called it with 30 votes in. CBS noted that as soon as the networks called it, participation fell off. Of course, Trump was going to win, but I'm with you - this isn't really historic.
I listened to PSA this morning coming home from the Pool--and just completed MESSAGE BOX. This is just great--and so helpful. (And Lovett's joke about the "Haley demographic" had me spitting on my radio). Feeling better this morning--even if I shouldn't. Thanks Dan.
Well--and you will like this a bit less. The water was just kind of "warmish" for my lap swim this morning, while looking out at the sunrise over the Gulf, and palms at the edge of the beach walk by the City Pool--Northshore Aquatic Center.
Amen to that! I live in upstate New York and decided against moving to Florida because of DeSantis and his ilk. Plus.... housing in Florida is so outrageous now that I could probably find a better deal in California!
I am not sure how this influx of campaign donations accrues to the benefit of Koch Industries. I am not challenging your logic but asking about an area I have bare knowledge of. I thought campaign contributions were regulated in that they had real rules about how they could be spent. I realize it was different for Trump before he officially became a candidate--he was soliciting donations in his name, not the campaigns, and could spend the money however he pleased. Are you saying that Koch can take campaign contributions from their wholly-owned subsidiaries as income?
Dan's #2 and the pie chart of the Des Moines Register poll is really interesting, particularly that 11% of those Republicans would vote for Biden if Trump is the nominee. I'd love to know how that compares to past nominees and Dems' support for Biden.
Counterpoint: as much as I want to agree with all of Dan's persuasive argument here, I think turnout yesterday was low because the conclusion was 101% foregone. Trump was very obviously going to win yesterday's contest in Iowa. The conclusion won't be nearly so foregone in November when Trump is up against Biden. The type of Republican who couldn't be bothered to go vote yesterday will probably not sit around on the day of the general election, and some will actually take advantage of early voting or mail-in ballots, conspiracies about them nothwithstanding. (Some Republicans probably don't believe what the party standard-bearer believes.)
I want to be wrong about this, and I hope Republican enthusiasm for Trump really is tepid as it looked yesterday, but that's my hunch.
On the other hand, I believe that his win was roughly in line with the polls, which to me is a bit of a cause for concern in the general election, since he and Biden are pretty much running neck-and-neck in the polls. Thoughts?
I know I am out of step with most thought about the election. While I plan to work hard-as though Democrats are 30% behind, I continue to think that Biden will beat Trump by 15 million votes, with an Electoral College victory that harkens back to Reagan-Carter or Johnson-Goldwater.
As for the polls, no pollster or statistician would tell you that a general election poll a year out has any predictive ability today. More than half the electorate is not engaged enough to know who will be running.
As for the GOP, they are fighting twin headwinds: their positions on every major issue are wildly unpopular and their nominee will be an accused (and maybe convicted) felon, but worse, there’s a growing unease that they are up to something undemocratic and un-American.
I think Trump’s vote popular total will decline ~10%.
I will join the pessimist club. "Keep your hopes high and your expectations low." Scary world. And people are, ok, generally dumb and super emotional (you know, unlike me.) Even though I love em.
There's evidence that most general election voters don't know or don't believe that Trump will be the nominee. Only like 20% of voters are paying attention now. Trump winning primaries will hopefully make it more real to them. It did to me and I've been following closely. We shall see.
With all the normal caveats about how Trump definitely could win etc, I think Republicans are less enthusiastic because they keep losing. They’ve lost almost every significant election since 2016. Nobody wants to be on the losing team. Yeah most of them believe 2020 was stolen but Biden is in the WH so he “won” that fight. People like Kari Lake crying wolf about stolen elections starts to lose its effect on al but the most diehard (and potentially violent) supporters. We can win this if we do the work!
I didn't watch any coverage, and now I'm glad I didn't. My husband said they called it with 30 votes in. CBS noted that as soon as the networks called it, participation fell off. Of course, Trump was going to win, but I'm with you - this isn't really historic.
I listened to PSA this morning coming home from the Pool--and just completed MESSAGE BOX. This is just great--and so helpful. (And Lovett's joke about the "Haley demographic" had me spitting on my radio). Feeling better this morning--even if I shouldn't. Thanks Dan.
This is just not fair Tony. Going to the pool. We are completely iced in! Your pal in the PNW!
Well--and you will like this a bit less. The water was just kind of "warmish" for my lap swim this morning, while looking out at the sunrise over the Gulf, and palms at the edge of the beach walk by the City Pool--Northshore Aquatic Center.
Oh a lovely image. If someone has to have this I am glad it is you Tony!
Going to the pool...
I don't think I can even get to the garage...
Right, just keep the power on eh? See Dan, people make friends here. A good thing. Take care Carrie!
Well--at least you don't have Governor DeSantis!
Amen to that! I live in upstate New York and decided against moving to Florida because of DeSantis and his ilk. Plus.... housing in Florida is so outrageous now that I could probably find a better deal in California!
Curious to know if any independents braved the weather and the anachronistic construct to cast a vote.
Really interesting question.
I totally agree with your viewpoint.
As the incombant in 2020 Trump got 97% of the puny 35000 votes cast. And that was post-Jan 6.
Then in the 2020 general election, in the midst of COVID, running from a bunker in his basement, Biden beat the insurrectionist with 81 million votes.
At this point, Trump is just shedding voters and Biden has many to add form a large pool of young, first time voters, independents and never Trumpers.
IMO, 2024 will see Democratic activism in all 50 states, drive his vote total to + 90 million.
Trump/MAGA will be lucky to get in the mid-60Ks
Thank you for that analysis. Curious how the Koch machine is “lining their own pockets “ ?
Me too! Dan will you please write more about that when you can.
I am not sure how this influx of campaign donations accrues to the benefit of Koch Industries. I am not challenging your logic but asking about an area I have bare knowledge of. I thought campaign contributions were regulated in that they had real rules about how they could be spent. I realize it was different for Trump before he officially became a candidate--he was soliciting donations in his name, not the campaigns, and could spend the money however he pleased. Are you saying that Koch can take campaign contributions from their wholly-owned subsidiaries as income?
ate
How, to the last. Thanks!
Dan's #2 and the pie chart of the Des Moines Register poll is really interesting, particularly that 11% of those Republicans would vote for Biden if Trump is the nominee. I'd love to know how that compares to past nominees and Dems' support for Biden.
Counterpoint: as much as I want to agree with all of Dan's persuasive argument here, I think turnout yesterday was low because the conclusion was 101% foregone. Trump was very obviously going to win yesterday's contest in Iowa. The conclusion won't be nearly so foregone in November when Trump is up against Biden. The type of Republican who couldn't be bothered to go vote yesterday will probably not sit around on the day of the general election, and some will actually take advantage of early voting or mail-in ballots, conspiracies about them nothwithstanding. (Some Republicans probably don't believe what the party standard-bearer believes.)
I want to be wrong about this, and I hope Republican enthusiasm for Trump really is tepid as it looked yesterday, but that's my hunch.
On the other hand, I believe that his win was roughly in line with the polls, which to me is a bit of a cause for concern in the general election, since he and Biden are pretty much running neck-and-neck in the polls. Thoughts?
I know I am out of step with most thought about the election. While I plan to work hard-as though Democrats are 30% behind, I continue to think that Biden will beat Trump by 15 million votes, with an Electoral College victory that harkens back to Reagan-Carter or Johnson-Goldwater.
As for the polls, no pollster or statistician would tell you that a general election poll a year out has any predictive ability today. More than half the electorate is not engaged enough to know who will be running.
As for the GOP, they are fighting twin headwinds: their positions on every major issue are wildly unpopular and their nominee will be an accused (and maybe convicted) felon, but worse, there’s a growing unease that they are up to something undemocratic and un-American.
I think Trump’s vote popular total will decline ~10%.
I am perfectly okay with that. Based on your comment below, I think you might secretly agree.
You give pessimist Dan a run for his money as CPIC (chief pessimist in charge)
I will join the pessimist club. "Keep your hopes high and your expectations low." Scary world. And people are, ok, generally dumb and super emotional (you know, unlike me.) Even though I love em.
There's evidence that most general election voters don't know or don't believe that Trump will be the nominee. Only like 20% of voters are paying attention now. Trump winning primaries will hopefully make it more real to them. It did to me and I've been following closely. We shall see.
That's a fair concern, but I still think we are months away from getting any clarity. I am going to be patient--and involved.
Yes, the orange jumper is just the beginning of his new business, the Donald Trump Prison Collection. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80965HW3b6g
Enjoy!