With all the normal caveats about how Trump definitely could win etc, I think Republicans are less enthusiastic because they keep losing. They’ve lost almost every significant election since 2016. Nobody wants to be on the losing team. Yeah most of them believe 2020 was stolen but Biden is in the WH so he “won” that fight. People like Kari Lake crying wolf about stolen elections starts to lose its effect on al but the most diehard (and potentially violent) supporters. We can win this if we do the work!
I didn't watch any coverage, and now I'm glad I didn't. My husband said they called it with 30 votes in. CBS noted that as soon as the networks called it, participation fell off. Of course, Trump was going to win, but I'm with you - this isn't really historic.
I listened to PSA this morning coming home from the Pool--and just completed MESSAGE BOX. This is just great--and so helpful. (And Lovett's joke about the "Haley demographic" had me spitting on my radio). Feeling better this morning--even if I shouldn't. Thanks Dan.
Dan's #2 and the pie chart of the Des Moines Register poll is really interesting, particularly that 11% of those Republicans would vote for Biden if Trump is the nominee. I'd love to know how that compares to past nominees and Dems' support for Biden.
Fat Donny now has an actual fact to trumpet - multiple news outlets used the word "Historic", goddamn it.
Fat Donny has already weaponized it. He's going to use that word as a bludgeon to convince people somehow he was right all along, he's the "people's candidate" and everything against him really is a witch hunt.
Fuck. And right after Christie bails.
Ok, them's the cards. Here is the Good News:
If a measurable percentage of voters who voted for Fat Donny in the primaries admitted immediately that they are not interested in him as president again - 25%! - that right there is the target.
Hammer that home - Fat Donny primary voters won't vote for him as President. He's a loser carrying his party to a "historic" LOSS.
Use the hyperbole against Fat Donny - "Historic? Yeah, right, 25% of his own voters won't support him, they already know he's losing."
Right? Use big language against Fat Donny, people are saying he's a loser, he's headed for more "history" but in an orange jumper, not the White House.
Counterpoint: as much as I want to agree with all of Dan's persuasive argument here, I think turnout yesterday was low because the conclusion was 101% foregone. Trump was very obviously going to win yesterday's contest in Iowa. The conclusion won't be nearly so foregone in November when Trump is up against Biden. The type of Republican who couldn't be bothered to go vote yesterday will probably not sit around on the day of the general election, and some will actually take advantage of early voting or mail-in ballots, conspiracies about them nothwithstanding. (Some Republicans probably don't believe what the party standard-bearer believes.)
I want to be wrong about this, and I hope Republican enthusiasm for Trump really is tepid as it looked yesterday, but that's my hunch.
On the other hand, I believe that his win was roughly in line with the polls, which to me is a bit of a cause for concern in the general election, since he and Biden are pretty much running neck-and-neck in the polls. Thoughts?
I need a follow up with Sarah longwell. She picked on these views in their reaction pod. I’m pulled on wether to believe in this pseudo incumbent narrative.
With all the normal caveats about how Trump definitely could win etc, I think Republicans are less enthusiastic because they keep losing. They’ve lost almost every significant election since 2016. Nobody wants to be on the losing team. Yeah most of them believe 2020 was stolen but Biden is in the WH so he “won” that fight. People like Kari Lake crying wolf about stolen elections starts to lose its effect on al but the most diehard (and potentially violent) supporters. We can win this if we do the work!
I didn't watch any coverage, and now I'm glad I didn't. My husband said they called it with 30 votes in. CBS noted that as soon as the networks called it, participation fell off. Of course, Trump was going to win, but I'm with you - this isn't really historic.
I listened to PSA this morning coming home from the Pool--and just completed MESSAGE BOX. This is just great--and so helpful. (And Lovett's joke about the "Haley demographic" had me spitting on my radio). Feeling better this morning--even if I shouldn't. Thanks Dan.
Curious to know if any independents braved the weather and the anachronistic construct to cast a vote.
I totally agree with your viewpoint.
As the incombant in 2020 Trump got 97% of the puny 35000 votes cast. And that was post-Jan 6.
Then in the 2020 general election, in the midst of COVID, running from a bunker in his basement, Biden beat the insurrectionist with 81 million votes.
At this point, Trump is just shedding voters and Biden has many to add form a large pool of young, first time voters, independents and never Trumpers.
IMO, 2024 will see Democratic activism in all 50 states, drive his vote total to + 90 million.
Trump/MAGA will be lucky to get in the mid-60Ks
Thank you for that analysis. Curious how the Koch machine is “lining their own pockets “ ?
Dan's #2 and the pie chart of the Des Moines Register poll is really interesting, particularly that 11% of those Republicans would vote for Biden if Trump is the nominee. I'd love to know how that compares to past nominees and Dems' support for Biden.
Communications-wise, two things pop out:
Fat Donny now has an actual fact to trumpet - multiple news outlets used the word "Historic", goddamn it.
Fat Donny has already weaponized it. He's going to use that word as a bludgeon to convince people somehow he was right all along, he's the "people's candidate" and everything against him really is a witch hunt.
Fuck. And right after Christie bails.
Ok, them's the cards. Here is the Good News:
If a measurable percentage of voters who voted for Fat Donny in the primaries admitted immediately that they are not interested in him as president again - 25%! - that right there is the target.
Hammer that home - Fat Donny primary voters won't vote for him as President. He's a loser carrying his party to a "historic" LOSS.
Use the hyperbole against Fat Donny - "Historic? Yeah, right, 25% of his own voters won't support him, they already know he's losing."
Right? Use big language against Fat Donny, people are saying he's a loser, he's headed for more "history" but in an orange jumper, not the White House.
Counterpoint: as much as I want to agree with all of Dan's persuasive argument here, I think turnout yesterday was low because the conclusion was 101% foregone. Trump was very obviously going to win yesterday's contest in Iowa. The conclusion won't be nearly so foregone in November when Trump is up against Biden. The type of Republican who couldn't be bothered to go vote yesterday will probably not sit around on the day of the general election, and some will actually take advantage of early voting or mail-in ballots, conspiracies about them nothwithstanding. (Some Republicans probably don't believe what the party standard-bearer believes.)
I want to be wrong about this, and I hope Republican enthusiasm for Trump really is tepid as it looked yesterday, but that's my hunch.
On the other hand, I believe that his win was roughly in line with the polls, which to me is a bit of a cause for concern in the general election, since he and Biden are pretty much running neck-and-neck in the polls. Thoughts?
I need a follow up with Sarah longwell. She picked on these views in their reaction pod. I’m pulled on wether to believe in this pseudo incumbent narrative.